Hungarian Politics

[Tamas]

It's a good thing they don't have 2 months to shred evidence like in other countries.  It's as if the US Founding Fathers knew they needed time to clear their tracks during a change of administration

They have a month, I think.

[Norgy]

I hope this marks Hungary's return to the European fold. 

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Don't expect him to turn Budapest into downtown Brussels overnight.

Budapest already looks better than downtown Brussels, which has a shabby feel somehow.

It does not take much to be better than Orban, be it domestic or foreign policy.

I didn't mean it as an improvement for Budapest

[Sheilbh]

Budapest already looks better than downtown Brussels, which has a shabby feel somehow.

I love Brussels and think it's an underrated city - but yes. Always feel it with Eurostar where the other terminus stations are St Pancras and Gare du Nord, which have both had a lot of work done and the bit between them and their neighbour big stations (Kings Cross and Gare de l'Est) are genuinely pleasant.

Then you get out at Bruxelles-Midi

It does not take much to be better than Orban, be it domestic or foreign policy.

Yeah I think a key element will be anti-corruption/cleaning up politics. But otherwise I think the big difference is supporting Ukraine (or at least no longer blocking support for Ukraine) and big increase to defence spending.

Otherwise my understanding is he attacked Orban for being too pro-immigration and will still oppose more European integration. So it feels - and I could be wrong here - that he's basically a bit more of a PiS version.

And I think that's enough and a win - one thing I slightly wonder is if it will just flush out (especially on Ukraine) other countries who would basically hide behind/allow Orban to be the face of opposition. Not on everything but on a lot of sanctions etc there's always been reporting of other countries also being opposed but of being able to just not say anything in the knowledge Orban would be difficult - on Brussels I think this has come up with Belgium a few times for example.

[Tamas]

One very good thing about the absolute rout inflicted on Fidesz is that it has - hopefully - removed all appetite from Orban and Co to start some shit on the streets.

I am still a bit puzzled by the silence so far - there are a lot of people in risk of jail if Magyar keeps to his promises - but I expect there is frantic looking for deals with Magyar's circles right now.

Notedly, busted traitor, Foreign Minister Szijjarto has not been seen. Yesterday morning he was one of the first notables to cast his vote, but he wasn't on the stage during Orbán's concession speech like the rest of the immediate leadership. I am torn between wanting to see him apply for refuge in Moscow and wanting to see him being arrested in Budapest in a month's time.

[Legbiter]

Good update Tamas.

I hope Magyar is a vast improvement for the Hungarians. At least he's not an outright stooge for the russians.

[DGuller]

Hopefully one of the reasons for lack of trouble given by Orbanites is that no one wants to carry out the orders of the doomed side.  If you help carry out some funny business now, and most likely fail, you'll go to the top of the most wanted list.

[Grey Fox]

There's no money anymore. Russia doesn't pay if you are losing.

[Norgy]

There's no money anymore. Russia doesn't pay if you are losing.

I think that is a good point; Putin is spending his money elsewhere.
While I do not think this is the end of FSB's trolls and election interference, as I think Putin already has new candidates like the good KGB boi he is, I think Russia's internal problems are outgrowing the ability to project clandestine power very quickly.

[HVC]

What are the chances orban faces any real repercussions?

[Sheilbh]

There's no money anymore. Russia doesn't pay if you are losing.

There is a really cynical read of this for why there's less issue from Fidesz which I very much hope is not true. A lot of the money was also EU funds and basically just siphoning off EU development funding and subsidies. Some, though not all, of this started to be cut or suspended over rule of law issues over the last four years.

The very cynical read is that Magyar is a Fidesz insider who was in the tent until 2024 and his politics aren't that different (if less obstructionist). It may ultimately be enough to get the funding back and allow a new set of elite stakeholders to siphon off that money.

To be really, really cynical/conspiratorial I think Magyar and Tisza looks a lot like what you'd do if you wanted to present a clean-skin to the European institutions to turn the taps back on, return to normal, then end up with a bit of elite sharing of spoils and sidelining of activist/opposition energy.

I'd add the less cynical possibility is that they were an authoritarian democracy but still a democracy and not everywhere has had the same backsliding in the way the US has on power transferring (in fact, so far, that seems quite distinctively American in the US and Brazil).

[Tamas]

This is a valid concern but the last 16 or so months have disproven it I think. The attacks on Magyar has been vicious. Everything that worked on previous rivals to destroy their support had been tried and failed. Plus more. Like Magyar's girlfriend proving to be a Fidesz agent. She recorded him disparaging his own supporters after a stressful day. Not a blip of drop in his support. A few months ago they even released the footage of her having sex with him in a camerad-up room at some house party. I think they wanted him to snort coke (never seen the footage but I think there was some either in the house or even in the room) on camera but couldn't get him so they settled to the humping on the bed, although I am not sure what scandal factor they expected from a single mid-40s guy busted for having sex with his publicly shown-off girlfriend.

Point is, they spent a lot of effort trying to destroy his support but nothing worked.

So I am pretty sure he is a genuine Orban rival. Where the jury is still out if he is going to move against the super-rich Orban vassal or if he is just going to take charge over them.

[Syt]

Anecdotal evidence from someone I know: one former Orbán voter said that while he supports Fidesz politics, the corruption was too much, causing him to switch votes for the first time. Tamas, any idea how much that reflects other right-wing voters?

[The Brain]

while he supports Fidesz politics, the corruption was too much

"Too many notes."

[Legbiter]

I think that is a good point; Putin is spending his money elsewhere.
While I do not think this is the end of FSB's trolls and election interference, as I think Putin already has new candidates like the good KGB boi he is, I think Russia's internal problems are outgrowing the ability to project clandestine power very quickly.

They just have to find a new pawn in Europe. Get one coalition party or a PM in any of the 26 EU countries to fuck coordination on things like Ukraine. There's a Liberum Veto kinda weakness inherent in the EU machinery.