Hungarian Politics

[Martinus]

Also, except for a brief period of baby boom in the 1950s, I don't think the Western world has really seen the demographic explosion compared to which we are now supposedly seeing a decline.

Sure, back in the old days, people were having many more children than today, but both child and female birth mortality was much higher, and the human life expectancy was lower, due to wars and other stuff like that. (My dad, born in 1935, was the youngest of 13 children. Only he and one of his brother had any kids though because everyone else either died in infancy or didn't make it through the war - so it's no different than having 2 kids today).

The population exploded in the 1950s because people were still breeding like in the 1940s and 1930s but scientific advances increased life expectancy significantly, but shortly after that the human replacement figures went back to normal, because people adjusted their breeding behaviour to a new situation.

The population is aging because people do not die at 50 anymore, but people expect to retire at 60 like 30 years ago.

[Sheilbh]

The demographic one is a puzzler.  The Euros had been hearing for decades their societies were going to melt down if they did not have more kids to support their systems but they do not seem to have been particularly moved to action by that fact.

Well one reason is that Euros often hear this in the context of Eurabia, so we switch off.  But it's not a Euro-wide problem.  I think Scandinavia, the UK and France are all okay and, until recently, so were Spain and Ireland.  It's been a problem for a few countries in Old Europe - Germany and Italy especially - but the worst demographics are in New Europe, which is rather odd.

Why the fuck would it be a puzzler? Excepting truly insane people, I don't think anyone takes a decision to have kids or not based on "the looming fall of the white man civilization". 

I think the idea that your kids will be there to support you is a big part of having tbem.  It may not take the grand social analysis but it amounts to the same.

[Valmy]

Also, except for a brief period of baby boom in the 1950s, I don't think the Western world has really seen the demographic explosion compared to which we are now supposedly seeing a decline.

I certainly think a baby boom would be disastrous.  I am just talking about replacement level, enough to keep the home fires burning and the pension money coming in.  If the Western World had historically reproduced at modern Germany levels there would be no Western World today.  If everybody was having two kids today they would be ideal.

1.8-2.2 is the sweet spot, anything higher or lower there are going to be problems...but granted lower is probably much better in the short term than higher.

[Martinus]

The demographic one is a puzzler.  The Euros had been hearing for decades their societies were going to melt down if they did not have more kids to support their systems but they do not seem to have been particularly moved to action by that fact.

Well one reason is that Euros often hear this in the context of Eurabia, so we switch off.  But it's not a Euro-wide problem.  I think Scandinavia, the UK and France are all okay and, until recently, so were Spain and Ireland.  It's been a problem for a few countries in Old Europe - Germany and Italy especially - but the worst demographics are in New Europe, which is rather odd.

Why the fuck would it be a puzzler? Excepting truly insane people, I don't think anyone takes a decision to have kids or not based on "the looming fall of the white man civilization". 

I think the idea that your kids will be there to support you is a big part of having tbem.  It may not take the grand social analysis but it amounts to the same.

I don't think so. I think people in the West now largely marry and decide to have kids for personal/emotional levels. I don't think many people, at least conciously, make these decisions in terms of investment/security.

This is also a reason, imo, why societies are more "atomised" now and social bonds are breaking. Turns out humans are not social or family animals after all - we are rugged individualists. We only band with others when we have no choice. Once given sufficient technological and legal tools to be able to live on our own we choose to do so.

[Valmy]

Why the fuck would it be a puzzler? Excepting truly insane people, I don't think anyone takes a decision to have kids or not based on "the looming fall of the white man civilization". 

I am not sure where race came into this.  I am talking about sane national policies not some weird...whatever you are talking about.  Having shrinking generations is not a bad thing.  Having tons of kids is, of course, even worse as that tends to create poverty and crime.  But having too few and you face a pretty bleak future.

How is that stupid shit?

[Martinus]

Also, except for a brief period of baby boom in the 1950s, I don't think the Western world has really seen the demographic explosion compared to which we are now supposedly seeing a decline.

I certainly think a baby boom would be disastrous.  I am just talking about replacement level, enough to keep the home fires burning and the pension money coming in.  If the Western World had historically reproduced at modern Germany levels there would be no Western World today.  If everybody was having two kids today they would be ideal.

1.8-2.2 is the sweet spot, anything higher or lower there are going to be problems...but granted lower is probably much better in the short term than higher.

Most of my (upper) middle class colleagues who are married and have kids, have usually 2 or 3. I think the statistics are brought down by people who are single and/or childless rather than people who have 1 kid only. You cannot really force people to breed or marry in a modern liberal society.

[Tamas]

This is also a reason, imo, why societies are more "atomised" now and social bonds are breaking. Turns out humans are not social or family animals after all - we are rugged individualists. We only band with others when we have no choice. Once given sufficient technological and legal tools to be able to live on our own we choose to do so.

No. Family is still the basic unit, it has always been. Those who pretend to can function without that are the minority.

[Martinus]

Why the fuck would it be a puzzler? Excepting truly insane people, I don't think anyone takes a decision to have kids or not based on "the looming fall of the white man civilization". 

I am not sure where race came into this.  I am talking about sane national policies not some weird...whatever you are talking about.  Having shrinking generations is not a bad thing.  Having tons of kids is, of course, even worse as that tends to create poverty and crime.  But having too few and you face a pretty bleak future.

How is that stupid shit?

As Sheilbh pointed out, this kind of rhetorics is almost exclusively the domain of right winger racists/white supremacists in Europe. So when you say we have been hearing about declining birth rates for decades, it may be true, but we  have been hearing this almost only from the likes of Le Pen.

[Martinus]

This is also a reason, imo, why societies are more "atomised" now and social bonds are breaking. Turns out humans are not social or family animals after all - we are rugged individualists. We only band with others when we have no choice. Once given sufficient technological and legal tools to be able to live on our own we choose to do so.

No. Family is still the basic unit, it has always been. Those who pretend to can function without that are the minority.

Spoken like a true Orbanite. I can now see why your country is such a shit-stain.

[Valmy]

Most of my (upper) middle class colleagues who are married and have kids, have usually 2 or 3. I think the statistics are brought down by people who are single and/or childless rather than people who have 1 kid only. You cannot really force people to breed or marry in a modern liberal society.

Nor am I suggesting people do so.  I guess I figured if people were hearing their culture was nearing a crisis because of a pending demographic disaster, and indeed this has been repeated fairly often for about twenty years now, they might consider having another one or two.  Or maybe they are and it just is not enough.  Or as you said it tends to be packaged in 'OMG TEH MASTER RACE NEEDS MOAR'.

[Valmy]

As Sheilbh pointed out, this kind of rhetorics is almost exclusively the domain of right winger racists/white supremacists in Europe. So when you say we have been hearing about declining birth rates for decades, it may be true, but we  have been hearing this almost only from the likes of Le Pen.

Ah got it.  No I am not talking about that.  It is not like only white countries have demographic problems in either direction.

[Valmy]

This is also a reason, imo, why societies are more "atomised" now and social bonds are breaking. Turns out humans are not social or family animals after all - we are rugged individualists. We only band with others when we have no choice. Once given sufficient technological and legal tools to be able to live on our own we choose to do so.

No. Family is still the basic unit, it has always been. Those who pretend to can function without that are the minority.

Well I certainly feel that way.  Family is everything to me.  But that is just a personal preference.

[Tamas]

This is also a reason, imo, why societies are more "atomised" now and social bonds are breaking. Turns out humans are not social or family animals after all - we are rugged individualists. We only band with others when we have no choice. Once given sufficient technological and legal tools to be able to live on our own we choose to do so.

No. Family is still the basic unit, it has always been. Those who pretend to can function without that are the minority.

Well I certainly feel that way.  Family is everything to me.  But that is just a personal preference.

We do instinctively need some kind of tribal affiliation though. Otherwise there would be no things like sport club loyalty and other side-effects of this. Not to mention religious wars and nationalism.
So again, Marty is wrong.

[Martinus]

We do instinctively need some kind of tribal affiliation though. Otherwise there would be no things like sport club loyalty and other side-effects of this. Not to mention religious wars and nationalism.
So again, Marty is wrong.

Not really. It just shows that within your society, Orban is right. And if he is right and the tribe/family is everything, then indeed he is right to effectively destroy the highly individualistic personal pension accounts and use it for the betterment of the community, because this money is not needed and you are expected to rely on your family and tribe instead (the fruits of your labour belong to the tribe, not you).

It's actually quite funny because you now bemoan how Orban is destroying your freedom and property, but your political views are really in line with what he preaches. He is a racist, you are a racist (against gypsies for example). He has a tribalistic, family-oriented communitarian mentality and you obviously have it too. So stop moaning for being ruled by someone who shares your views, but only drawing them to their logical conclusions.

[Tamas]

We do instinctively need some kind of tribal affiliation though. Otherwise there would be no things like sport club loyalty and other side-effects of this. Not to mention religious wars and nationalism.
So again, Marty is wrong.

Not really. It just shows that within your society, Orban is right. And if he is right and the tribe/family is everything, then indeed he is right to effectively destroy the highly individualistic personal pension accounts and use it for the betterment of the community, because this money is not needed and you are expected to rely on your family and tribe instead (the fruits of your labour belong to the tribe, not you).

It's actually quite funny because you now bemoan how Orban is destroying your freedom and property, but your political views are really in line with what he preaches. He is a racist, you are a racist (against gypsies for example). He has a tribalistic, family-oriented communitarian mentality and you obviously have it too. So stop moaning for being ruled by someone who shares your views, but only drawing them to their logical conclusions.

take your meds, dude