Hungarian Politics

[Sheilbh]

So over the last day - Tamas is this as bad an idea as it seems from here ("could we simply not unite around the candidacy of the wife of the loathed former Prime Minister who was recorded saying 'we have obviously been lying for the last one and a half to two years'?")

András Tóth-Czifra
@NoYardstick
Hungary opposition primary news:

- 2nd meeting bw MZ & Karacsony focuses on program, still no decision on who will withdraw (MZ likelier)
- they wanted to be on the ballots together; this won't be possible
- "Median" poll: Dobrev 37, MZ 33, Karacsony 24


András Tóth-Czifra
@NoYardstick
·
7h
Today:

- second poll (Zavecz) puts Karacsony at 3rd place, suggests Dobrev could beat either him or MZP, even if one of them withdrew.
- Karacsony: "I won't wothdraw"
- MZP: "the numbers show it's not me who should withdraw"

This is starting to slip away from them.
András Tóth-Czifra
@NoYardstick
·
2h
Also today:

- third poll (Republikon) says Karacsony would defeat Dobrev in a 1-to-1 race, but Marki-Zay would not.

Karacsony has been arguing the same over the past week.

Meanwhile taxpayer-funded (but Fidesz-controlled) public broadcaster mocks the whole process.
BREAKING

Karacsony announces, after a week of back&forth, that he & Marki-Zay won't cooperate in the 2nd round (starts on Sunday) and will both be on the ballot. Dobrev, arguably the weakest potential candidate to take on Orban, is now a favorite.

[Tamas]

These opposition primaries are a very interesting and complex topic.

It's been by far the most complex and successful cooperation between the anti-Orban forces, triggered -ironically- by Orban's further squeeze of the election rules which made it impossible for a fragmented setup of multiple parties running independently to have any hope for catching a majority.

And it's been incredibly refreshing to see political debates, even if they were a bit diluted since the appearance of a united front had to be kept. The state media of course barely covered it, and when it did, only to ridicule it. But for the first time in a decade, the main happenings in politics is not what Orban wants people to talk about.  So in this sense it's great.

The eventual PM candidate of the opposition is tricky indeed. Now that Karacsony (liberal left) and Marki-Zay (something of a Christian Democrat in a good way) failed to make a deal, indeed it is probably going to be Mrs. Gyurcsany (Klara Dobrev) winning the candidacy.

That sure makes it easier for the state propagandists, but I am not sure how much it actually matters. Fidesz' attempt to keep their supporters active and engaged during the period of the opposition primaries was collecting signatures for a nation-wide "petition" to "Stop Gyurcsany, Stop Karacsony!" In this, Karacsony (the biggest rival in primaries to Mrs. Gyurcsany) is painted as a mere sockpuppet for Mr. Gyurcsany. The same way the last big unifying opposition PM candidate (Bajnai) was painted around 2014.



So yes, a direct link to the vilified Source of All Evil Gyurcsany is bad, but that "direct link" would be created by state propaganda regardless.


And another question is: does all of this matter? I find it unfathomable that when faced with a defeat, Orban would just stand aside, instead of doctoring the results. He and his gang have certainly made preparations to rule both the political and economic sources of power even if not in government, but I seriously doubt his ego could, at this stage, deal with having to step down as PM.

[Tamas]

As quite the surprise, second-placed PM candidate Karacsony has just conceded the race to support Marki-Zay.

Marki-Zay is the kind of conservative I would never prefer over a moderate left candidate like Klara Dobrev, but would be content with him being PM. And with his independent and right-leaning credentials, Orban's propagandists will have trouble attacking him. So I hope he will win the primaries.

[Tamas]

Orban's Facebook page reacted to the news with unmasked glee, it seems.



The original pic is Karacsony's ad saying "I'll defeat Orban!" with the red sign added reading "Postponed"

[Syt]

https://dailynewshungary.com/hungarian-opposition-politicians-fined-for-millions/

Hungarian opposition politicians fined for millions

The leader of the opposition Democratic Coalition (DK), Ferenc Gyurcsány has had his salary as a lawmaker docked by 2.4 million forints (EUR 6,480), while Tímea Szabó, the co-leader of Párbeszéd, has been fined 9.6 million forints. Speaker of Parliament László Kövér said in a statement on Thursday that Gyurcsány had received several warnings to stop interjecting during a statement made by a government lawmaker, and he had ignored each warning. Meanwhile, he noted that Szabó had raised a banner depicting the symbol of "Fidesz", the ruling party, with the flag of the People's Republic of China above it in a red circle before parliamentary state secretary Csaba Dömötör made his statement

Kövér added that the statement was shouted down and warnings from the speaker were ignored. In a Facebook post reacting to the fine, Szabó vowed not to back down "in the fight for the country's freedom, no matter how hard" Kövér and Prime Minister Viktor Orbán "come down" on her. Szabó noted that her act of protest had been against the ruling parties' approval of the plan to build the Budapest campus of China's Fudan University.

Szabo added that she would not be intimidated by Kövér. "I won't let Orbán leave each and every Hungarian 110,000 forints and every two-child family close to half a million forints in debt with a 450 billion forint loan from China just for the sake of a Chinese university that will deprive young Hungarians outside the capital of housing, charge 2.5 million forints in tuition fees and serve as a hideout for Chinese secret agents," she said. "We won't turn our country over to the Chinese Communist Party," Szabó said. "What's at stake is Hungary's independence."

[Tamas]

Interesting thing highlighted by journalists: now that some high-profile East European corruption cases are being made public, in parallel Orban and his press are starting to talk about Biden and "foreign networks" preparing to target Hungary. which kind of indicates they are proactively preparing for some dirt to be aired about them as well.

[Tamas]

To "prevent higher inflation" non-premium fuel prices will get a ceiling in Hungary. It is not announced how exactly this will be enacted, the only option ruled out so far is decreasing the tax burden on fuel.

[Tamas]

The country has been gearing up for elections in April.

A few days ago, in addition to the fuel price ceiling, price of 7 specific basic foodstuffs have been capped at their 15th October 2021 level. Just like in the case of fuel, shops who have been selling these items are forbidden to remove them from their offering at threat of severe fines.

In case of fuel it seemed easier to see why Orban liked the idea - they forbidden petrol stations from closing their fuel court while keeping their stores open, meaning a near-death sentence for the remaining independent stations. The big national oil company, MOL, kindly stepped in soon after the legislation to indicate that they are happy to take over those stations struggling. Needless to say MOL has tight oligarchic links to Orban.

But with this Venezuela style move on food? The poorest will be happy as they have started to struggle with prices (allegedly there has been 30% inflation on lots of food items last year) but it will be hard to pretend there are no economic problems when you are doing this.

Oh, and things are going as usual on the ideological front as well, with Orban today on his regular weekly radio "interview" discussing how there are "indications being debated" that homosexuality can directly lead to pedophilia.


Meanwhile, parts of the opposition, in true leftist fashion, fight hard to prevent the existing good taking the place of the theoretical-only perfect. The centre-right PM candidate elected with very clear majority during the joined primaries seem to have few fans in supposedly independent press remaining. There is such focus on his perceived blunders and a near-total ignoring of his policy remarks which sometimes could make even pro-government propagandists blush.

[Tamas]

Orban and campaign staff did a "one of the common people" video of Orban attending a village pig slaughter with an MP candidate of his. He does these regularly, it is kind of striking how he really does feel in his element on these, he very clearly enjoys the processing work the banter and the home made palinka (fruit brandy). That the "one of us" narrative works with the rural poor for him surprises me far less as a result than somebody with Trump. I just wish he stayed with being a village farmer.

An interesting element is how his campaign people lean in on meme elements. The video's title can be translated as "Goodbye Piggy!" - years ago Orban did a campaign video where he was visiting an elderly village lady, who kept pigs and he greeted those with "Hello, piggy!" - which has become a meme since.

I find this somewhat symbolic of how their politics operate. Very old and increasingly fringe/outdated messages delivered adjusted to social media. If you are so inclined, you can watch the God King of Hungary dressed for winter morning village work here: https://www.facebook.com/orbanviktor/videos/675226623846472/

Speaking of symbolic:



This is a recent photo of the Justice Minister (and next President as recently revealed) happily shopping for the just price-frozen cheap meat products. Pointing them out while revealing her luxury watch worth more than all her declared savings, with the folk art decorated mask to turn the pic from great to perfect in describing Hungary of today.


EDIT: I have realised that not only the pic doesn't work, but the Justice Minister ISN'T the next President, it's her doppleganger Family Affairs minister who have been earmarked for that.

[Tamas]

In a minor but smart political move, the united opposition parties will be submitting a proposed change to the constitution to make it impossible for the country to leave the EU or NATO without a national referendum. Orban (I refuse to talk about "Fidesz" - there is no party anymore, just a collection of people doing Orban's bidding) will almost certainly not let an opposition initiative succeed, so the opposition can show further proof that Orban is looking to align the country eastward.

[Josquius]

Is leaving the EU something Orban wants to do?
The usual talk is more Hungary being kicked out due to his shit.

[Tamas]

Is leaving the EU something Orban wants to do?
The usual talk is more Hungary being kicked out due to his shit.

Officially no, but once the incoming money dries up he might.

[HVC]

How long has orban been in power? I guess term limits aren't a thing in Hungary?

[Habbaku]

How long has orban been in power? I guess term limits aren't a thing in Hungary?

Are there any parliamentary-style democracies with term limits? 

[Tamas]

How long has orban been in power? I guess term limits aren't a thing in Hungary?

He is (for now anyways) a regular Prime Minister. He can remain a PM as long as the rigged election system the people want him to.