Hungarian Politics

[Tamas]

Er....Tamas. I know there's an election in Hungary in a couple of weeks.

Via someone online - is there any reason that there's been no opinion polls in the last three weeks:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2022_Hungarian_parliamentary_election

Because it feels like some things have been happening in and around Hungary since 26 February that seem important and maybe relevant to an election

There supposed to be new ones coming today or tomorrow, with data gathered at the start of the month.

The whole war thing is weird. Maybe other regional countries also have significant swathes of the population in support of appeasing Russia it's just that they are peer-pressured into silence, but in Hungary they are happily out in the open, as that's the strongly implied position of the government as well. Despicable. I am curious to see the numbers on it in reliable polls.

[Tamas]

How suborned is the Hungarian election process? Is Orban guaranteed to win even if most people don't vote for him? Or does the opposition have an actual chance?

Impossible to tell. To be fair I don't think Orban will need to do any classical rigging - he has absolute control over all aspects of power and media, including the private sector as well, allowing very minimal presence and publicity to the opposition, and the election law is setup to heavily subsidise and benefit big parties like Fidesz.

But, the war and the inflational pressures which were already high prior to it present the worst environment Orban ever fought an election in. He might be forced to cheat his way to victory in an even blunter way than the above. I just cannot see him stepping down and giving up.

The best case scenario for an opposition win is that he does accept defeat, and his oligarchs and leaders of the public administration proceed to disable and ruin the country to engineer his return.

[Sheilbh]

The whole war thing is weird. Maybe other regional countries also have significant swathes of the population in support of appeasing Russia it's just that they are peer-pressured into silence, but in Hungary they are happily out in the open, as that's the strongly implied position of the government as well. Despicable. I am curious to see the numbers on it in reliable polls.

From what I've read it feels like he's playing a bad hand well with the Putin association. So it seems like the opposition are trying to position this as a "Putin or Europe" election, while Orban's basically arguing that because he's friendly with Putin and in Europe, Hungary is uniquely placed to be a force for peace and his pitch is basically "peace and neutrality" (which rather ignores that Hungary is a NATO state - so not neutral). But it feels like that's probably the best argument Orban can make?

[Tamas]

The whole war thing is weird. Maybe other regional countries also have significant swathes of the population in support of appeasing Russia it's just that they are peer-pressured into silence, but in Hungary they are happily out in the open, as that's the strongly implied position of the government as well. Despicable. I am curious to see the numbers on it in reliable polls.

From what I've read it feels like he's playing a bad hand well with the Putin association. So it seems like the opposition are trying to position this as a "Putin or Europe" election, while Orban's basically arguing that because he's friendly with Putin and in Europe, Hungary is uniquely placed to be a force for peace and his pitch is basically "peace and neutrality" (which rather ignores that Hungary is a NATO state - so not neutral). But it feels like that's probably the best argument Orban can make?

Probably yes except the opposition don't seem to be as loud on this as I'd like, probably cowered by Orban's attempts to paint them as aggressively trying to push us into war (based entirely on a single out of context misconstructed quote from the opposition's PM candidate).

It's a weird and disgusting situation in there. The government is acting like they never were friendly with Russia except making pragmatic business deals, while their  media -quite possibly under more direct Russian influence than even Orban would prefer- continue to run a thinly sanitised Russian narrative on  the war.

[Tamas]

this thing of putting a cap on fuel prices I reported a couple of months ago has quickly become a textbook example of why such measures are terrible, hastened by the runaway oil prices. So far, it has played out like this, I'd imagine in less extraordinary times this would have taken years instead of months:

1. Government: From now on max price of petrol or diesel is 480 Forints per litre! (1.3 Euros at the moment)

2. Small independent petrol stations: we cannot sustain that, we'll just close our forecourts and just leave the shop open

3. Government: From now on you are forbidden to keep the shop open if the forecourt is closed. Big Oil Company: we are happy to buy struggling independents, no worries people. Struggling independents: no sale, thank you

4. Oil price skyrockets, 1.3 per litre, stations now need to pay more than they can sell for. Government: from now on wholesalers must also keep to the price cap!

5. Fuel in Hungary is now cheaper than anywhere around the country, there is fuel tourism across the borders, and lorries going cross-country time their refuels so it happens in Hungary, putting ever more pressure on struggling petrol stations. Government: from now on, price cap is only valid for Hungarian non-lorries. Petrol stations: and how on Earth are we supposed to enforce this? Government:...

6. Slowly but steadily there's a trickle of independent stations closing down (and a few big ones along motorways), making access to fuel difficult in more remote areas. Government: that's ok, Big Oil Company will temporarily take over these. Big Oil Company: uhm, no, we won't, thanks for the suggestion though

7. A UK-style fuel panic causes even bigger shortages for a while but it calms down, still the trickle of closing stations continue. Government: ok fine we are paying a bit of support to stations from taxpayers' money, so they can survive longer. IF they don't lay off any of their staff

And this is where we are as of today.

[Tamas]

It's been revealed (originally be Serbian press I think) that the Hungarian national election mail ballots for voters in Serbia have not been delivered to voters (Hungarian nationals in Serbia) by the postal service but by volunteers of a so called NGO - an organisation with extremely close ties to the local pro-Fidesz organisation. Several Hungarians there told that these people -since 2018- identified as postmen when delivering these, and some people claimed the activists helped fill out the voting sheets.


EDIT: it seems these so called activists had list of voting-eligible people they visited and in several reported occasions were quite insisting in personally helping fill out the ballots for people in the households they delivered to. The Serbian Post apparently has a contract with the "NGO" to have them deliver these.

[Malthus]

Apparently, Zelenskyy delivered a 'shit or get off the pot' speech to Orban.

How is that playing out domestically in Hungary?

[Tamas]

Apparently, Zelenskyy delivered a 'shit or get off the pot' speech to Orban.

How is that playing out domestically in Hungary?

It was the big political news of yesterday of course, but I doubt it did more than entrench existing positions. People like me who, frankly, better understand the moral and practical implications of the Russian invasion are even more angry and embarrassed about Hungary's position. Those who have agreed with Orban's line on staying neutral lest we face (Russian) retaliation or economic inconvenience because of something we don't care about, I guess they find their opinion re-affirmed by Zelensky's effort to urge Hungary into action.

[Tamas]

Having said that, the pro-Orban talking heads can't ignore the slight on their master and have been busy denouncing Zelensky in various ways.

[crazy canuck]

Apparently, Zelenskyy delivered a 'shit or get off the pot' speech to Orban.

How is that playing out domestically in Hungary?

You should watch it. 

[Tamas]

Couple of pics of some local papers to get a glimpse of the country:



"Zelensky's latest attack is on us" They also explain Orban "sternly refused the aggressive demands". Of course what Orban did with "aggressive demands" was to strike a tone of sympathetic understanding while disagreeing.



This another local paper, the page where the local election candidates were to introduce themselves. Except the opposition's candidate there apparently used the chance to write a criticism of the (heavily pro-government) local council paper and local politics, so the paper claimed he only sent a photo and people should go to his Facebook page if they want to learn more.

[Josquius]

Similar tactics to those used in the UK with the local papers.
Does Hungary have something like the metro free paper there? That's quite a persistent cheerleader for dodginess.

[Tamas]

Similar tactics to those used in the UK with the local papers.
Does Hungary have something like the metro free paper there? That's quite a persistent cheerleader for dodginess.

In Budapest yes, it's very direct and crass state propaganda disguised as cheeky tabloid.

[Tamas]

One of the last remaining investigative journalist sites got their hands on some internal communication from the Foreign Ministry, revealing that by mid-2021 it got obvious that there was a widespread and excessive hacking of the ministry's computers. The internal document stipulates that it was likely a Russian hack, as their systems have been under constant Russian probing and attacks for the last decade. The article claims that the damage was so extensive, it is entirely conceivable some vulnerabilities remain to this day and the Russians might still have access to parts of the Ministry's systems.

This is made especially juicy/humiliating as it was on 30 December 2021 that Lavrov pinned a medal on the Hungarian Foreign Minister's chest to signify the closeness of the two countries. Meaning that muppet knew he was being humiliated but stood there with a grin. Humiliating for the whole nation.

[Tamas]

More importantly, however, the article claims there are strong indications, according to security sources, that there has been a conscious effort since 2014 to downgrade and de-fund cyber security in government institutions