NHL Hockey thread

[alfred russel]

Because as we all know, the only fans of a team are the people in the city it plays in.  No one else is allowed to buy merchandise or come into the city to watch games or anything that supports the teams.

Wikipedia says all of Manitoba has 1.2 million people. My guess would be that the Winnipeg ticket and merchandise sales from outside Manitoba will be limited, and those sales that do occur will be largely cannibalized from other teams.

[Barrister]

Because as we all know, the only fans of a team are the people in the city it plays in.  No one else is allowed to buy merchandise or come into the city to watch games or anything that supports the teams.

I'm sure the arena will be filled every night, but it IS the smallest number of seats. Tv revenues also will be small. Although the owner would be that billionaire that doesnt seem to mind if he loses money on it, so who cares.

The more canadian teams in the league the better. Nobody gives a shit in Atlanta, just like nobody gave a shit when then tried to have a NASCAR race in Montreal.

TV revenues are shared across the league.  Winnipeg will get the same national TV money as Montreal will.

Don't worry so much about seats.  The difference between 15,000 and 16,000 isn't very much - because the extra 1,000 seats are the worst seats in the house, with the lowest ticket prices.

David Thomson is apparently a smart businessman, and NOT that big a hockey fan.  And living in Toronto he's not a Jets fan.  He's in this because he sees a business opportunity.  And he's looked at the books and decided it can work.

[alfred russel]

Winnipeg has 700k or so people--who aren't especially wealthy. If Winnipeg loses, it is going to lose money. If it wins, it is taking wins and excitement from other teams (such as Chicago, Montreal, Toronto, New York) with only a base of 700k to capitalize on the winning.

So basically the question is, what does a sports commissioner have to do to lose his job?

Edmonton has lost a lot the past few years - and continues to sell out every game.  Toronto has always lost for as long as I've been alive - and they do just fine.  In a solid hockey market you don't "have" to win to do well.

Toronto isn't comparable at all--it is a major market. And the fact it has always lost is a great point: there are 30 NHL teams. If teams took turns trading championships, Toronto would only get one every 30 years. When there were less teams, they won a lot more Stanley Cups, right? You put a Stanley Cup in Toronto, you are going to get huge merchandise sales, huge TV ratings, a huge opportunity to jack up ticket prices, etc. You lose out on most of that with a team in Winnipeg.

I'm not saying moving the team is bad. Just that expanding to Winnipeg makes little sense (and that is effectively what the league has done, with a detour through Atlanta).

[alfred russel]

It also doesn't make sense to have teams in places like Nashville and not Atlanta. But then it really doesn't make sense not to have an NFL team in LA.

[Sophie Scholl]

Sports franchises don't fit into perfect economic models.  It isn't a straight bigger market = bigger profit equation.  There's a lot of factors that change that and can make it a total failure.  Look at a lot of the expansion teams in the various bigger markets that have struggled and continue to struggle in all of the leagues.  Look at the dual failures of the Rams and Raiders in LA.  Looking at population statistics and potential market size is all well and good, but it far from being a perfect insight.

[jimmy olsen]

Bruins are kicking ass!

[Valmy]

Winnipeg has 700k or so people--who aren't especially wealthy. If Winnipeg loses, it is going to lose money. If it wins, it is taking wins and excitement from other teams (such as Chicago, Montreal, Toronto, New York) with only a base of 700k to capitalize on the winning.

So basically the question is, what does a sports commissioner have to do to lose his job?

If putting a Hockey Team in Phoenix doesn't do it I do not know what will.

And agreed that the major markets need to win but they pretty much never do these days. 

[Valmy]

But then it really doesn't make sense not to have an NFL team in LA.

The LA teams had no fans and terrible attendance.  For a NFL franchise that is just not acceptable.

The Green Bay Packers on the other hand...

[Neil]

It also doesn't make sense to have teams in places like Nashville and not Atlanta. But then it really doesn't make sense not to have an NFL team in LA.

And that's why I have a hard time taking your analysis seriously:  The model you are using doesn't match the evidence we have, and so it should be discarded, but you cling to it in the face of contradictory evidence.  You see that NHL teams succeed in Nashville, Minnesota and Carolina, but fail in Phoenix and Atlanta, or that NFL teams succeed in Green Bay and Baltimore, but fail in Los Angeles, and your explanatory model disintegrates.  Clearly, there must be some factor at work beyond the potential size of the fan base.

BTW:  Baltimore in the NFL is a good example of the potential good things that can happen with the Jets.  They're similarly small markets which had a successful team at one point, but lost them due to various reasons.

[Barrister]

NHL comes to Winnipeg and becomes the absolute #1 sport in town.  They'll lead every sports report, the star players will be household names, little kids will buy their jerseys.  The teams already there - the CFL Blue Bombers, and whatever minor league the Goldeyes play in, get demoted to #2 and #3 without question.

NHL in Atlanta?  It's certainly #4 in terms of pro sports - the Hawks, Braves and Falcons all rank higher, to say nothing of college sports and NASCAR.  No matter how successful, the NHL will never, ever get as much buzz as those other sports.

[By the way, this is what makes me doubt all this "second team in Toronto" talk.  A second team in Toronto would be a clear second banana to the Leafs.  Would Torontonians really buy tickets to some no-name team?]


And the denials are getting more and more pathetic.  Deputy Commissioner Bill Daly is stuck saying "It's safe to say there will be no announcement on Tuesday,"

[Neil]

It's an attempt to get a Cup in Toronto by doing an end-around on the inept Leafs ownership and front office.

[viper37]

Because as we all know, the only fans of a team are the people in the city it plays in.  No one else is allowed to buy merchandise or come into the city to watch games or anything that supports the teams.

Wikipedia says all of Manitoba has 1.2 million people. My guess would be that the Winnipeg ticket and merchandise sales from outside Manitoba will be limited, and those sales that do occur will be largely cannibalized from other teams.

you'll have people from Saskatchewan and Western Ontario.  People from Thunder Bay will likely cheer the Jets over the Leafs.  I know I would.  No sane person should ever root for the Leafs.

[viper37]

It also doesn't make sense to have teams in places like Nashville and not Atlanta. But then it really doesn't make sense not to have an NFL team in LA.

Nashvill is ok.  Atlanta, well, apparently, not even baseball survives there, only college basketball and Nascar are popular.

[viper37]

[By the way, this is what makes me doubt all this "second team in Toronto" talk.  A second team in Toronto would be a clear second banana to the Leafs.  Would Torontonians really buy tickets to some no-name team?]

Detroit and Buffalo are very close to Toronto.  Any team based in Hamilton or Toronto would likely draw money from these markets too.  If I was the owner of Buffalo or Detroit, I wouldn't see from a keen eye a prospective 2nd Canadian team in the area.

Not likely to happen in our lifetime.  Afaik, ever since I'm old enough to remember, I heard the Nordiques moving to Hamilton...

[Barrister]

[By the way, this is what makes me doubt all this "second team in Toronto" talk.  A second team in Toronto would be a clear second banana to the Leafs.  Would Torontonians really buy tickets to some no-name team?]

Detroit and Buffalo are very close to Toronto.  Any team based in Hamilton or Toronto would likely draw money from these markets too.  If I was the owner of Buffalo or Detroit, I wouldn't see from a keen eye a prospective 2nd Canadian team in the area.

Well Buffalo certainly...