Libyan Civil War Megathread

[Caliga]

Wll Gadhafi be captured rescued by Otto Skorzeny?

[derspiess]

Why is that sad?  Does Germany need 6 panzer divisions?  Do they even need two?

Absolutely.  Not just for my personal enjoyment (though that's a large part of it), but also because they need to be able to pull their own weight to help make the world safe for Western business interests.

[Caliga]

Also needed to spank France and Poland when necessary.

[derspiess]

Well it's not like the Third Shock Army's gonna be rolling through the Fulda Gap. 

That's what Putin wants you to believe.  Oh sure, we'll all get a good laugh as the new Red Army plows through Poland, but don't think they'll stop there.

[Caliga]

Putin is the shiznit.

[DGuller]

Well it's not like the Third Shock Army's gonna be rolling through the Fulda Gap. 

That's what Putin wants you to believe.  Oh sure, we'll all get a good laugh as the new Red Army plows through Poland, but don't think they'll stop there.

I don't think Poland would be a cakewalk for the Russians.  Material science advanced a lot in the last 65 years, the lances should be much stronger now.

[Duque de Bragança]

Ok, so they can deploy a panzer division.  Can they also deploy: fallschirmjagers

Will they try to recapture their glory days of old by: invading Crete?

German tourists invade Crete every summer by plane but not by parachute though 

[Sheilbh]

So, how about Obama's speech? Good, bad, so-so?

I think good.  A strong attempt at explaining why intervene, why Libya and why not, say, Yemen.  I'm still far from convinced but it's the most coherent thing any leader's had so far.

Why though? Why go in?  It is an internal matter, and our airstrikes have proven ineffective.  Even if NATO did go in it would probably be the fucked up stuff we had in the Balkans or Rhuanda. 

Before the air strikes the army was about to take Benghazi, there would've been a massacre and then they would have taken Tobruk.  I'd have guessed that we'd be looking at the sort of thing seen in Hama in the 80s.  Now Benghazi's been saved, Ajdabiya's been re-taken as has the major oil port and refinery's been taken and even Misrata seems to be holding out.  The air strikes won't immediately cause the regime to collapse, but the idea they've simply been ineffective is wrong.

I doubt we'll see western troops there except, possibly, special forces and people training the rebels.  Even then not for some time.  I don't think the impatience is there. 

[KRonn]

I doubt we'll see western troops there except, possibly, special forces and people training the rebels.  Even then not for some time.  I don't think the impatience is there.

If the Gaddafi regime holds out, and this becomes stalemated, this type action appears to be a pretty feasible scenario. Short of sending in troops to do the fighting, but going further to remove Gaddafi. I'd think the intervening nations don't want to leave Gaddafi in power, even though some are saying the action is to protect the populace. Leaving Gaddafi in power is basically a defeat for the intervening nations.

[Warspite]

Before the air strikes the army was about to take Benghazi, there would've been a massacre

In what other cities and towns taken by Gadaffi's forces was there a massacre?

[Tamas]

I doubt we'll see western troops there except, possibly, special forces and people training the rebels.  Even then not for some time.  I don't think the impatience is there.

If the Gaddafi regime holds out, and this becomes stalemated, this type action appears to be a pretty feasible scenario. Short of sending in troops to do the fighting, but going further to remove Gaddafi. I'd think the intervening nations don't want to leave Gaddafi in power, even though some are saying the action is to protect the populace. Leaving Gaddafi in power is basically a defeat for the intervening nations.

Yes. They have taken up arms against a regime. To leave that regime in power, especially let it re-consolidate its power is not only a clear defeat, but a grave security risk. Ghadaffi will end up dead under the ruins of his bunker, the only question is, at what price for the West.

[Sheilbh]

Before the air strikes the army was about to take Benghazi, there would've been a massacre

In what other cities and towns taken by Gadaffi's forces was there a massacre?

The rumours from Zawiya were pretty strong, though I've not heard any concrete reports.  I think the language of Gadaffi and his sons towards the rebels suggested there'd be some brutality in the de facto rebel capital.

Yes. They have taken up arms against a regime. To leave that regime in power, especially let it re-consolidate its power is not only a clear defeat, but a grave security risk. Ghadaffi will end up dead under the ruins of his bunker, the only question is, at what price for the West.

Well the regime wouldn't be reconsolidating its power.  It would still be under sanctions, probably only in power in part of the country and basically in the sort of position it was in the 80s or like Saddam was in the 90s - except the major oil producing areas are, I believe, in rebel hands.

I just think it's verging on the delusional (and I mean Gadaffi level delusional) to imagine any Western country sending ground troops into Libya - except for special forces and trainers.  I think we are more likely to start bombing the Saudis to protect the Bahraini revolution than send ground troops into Libya.

[Warspite]

Before the air strikes the army was about to take Benghazi, there would've been a massacre

In what other cities and towns taken by Gadaffi's forces was there a massacre?

The rumours from Zawiya were pretty strong, though I've not heard any concrete reports.  I think the language of Gadaffi and his sons towards the rebels suggested there'd be some brutality in the de facto rebel capital.

The rebels retook some cities that had fallen back to pro-Gadaffi forces, though. Surely evidences of atrocity would have emerged and be all over the screens as triumphant justification for this humanitarian intervention?

[Admiral Yi]

What Ustashe is saying.  Moo-Mar's fiery rhetoric does not a massacre make.

[jamesww]

Assuming these rebels won't be able to drive up the road to Tripoli, despite having the world best close air support, what will happen next and what should the west do ?

My guess is 90-120 days stalemate as some form of training team, maybe very covert westerners, Arab GCC or Egyptians train up 2-3 battalions of rebels/ retrain ex-libyian army defectors into some form of coherent military formations. Surely that would be enough to do the job ?