Libyan Civil War Megathread

[Sheilbh]

The rebels retook some cities that had fallen back to pro-Gadaffi forces, though. Surely evidences of atrocity would have emerged and be all over the screens as triumphant justification for this humanitarian intervention?

True enough, though that's after the decision was taken to intervene.  At the time the rumours from Zawiya and Misrata and the language of the Gadaffis were enough, I think, to give rise to genuine concern there could've been a massacre. 

But you're right there's no evidence that at this point Gadaffi's been more brutal than normal and we can't say a massacre was averted.  Though Benghazi would seem more at risk, should Gadaffi retake it than the sort of towns that have moved back and forward - like Brega.  He'd be looking to crush the rebels spirit entirely and to totally control an area - in much the same way as the rumours from Zawiya, Tajoura and Misrata make sense in trying to destroy any western rebellion.

[Admiral Yi]

"Dress them in blue, dress them in white, dress them in red, they will run away all the same."

[Sheilbh]

What Ustashe is saying.  Moo-Mar's fiery rhetoric does not a massacre make.

Yep, we don't know there wouldn't have been one.  But at the time I don't think we could know that, and any massacre may not have been immediate.  He could well have wanted the media to move on.  But as I think Rwanda and the Balkans show there's normally reason to worry when a leader starts referring to a section of the people as snakes or cockroaches and it's difficult to intervene in the timeit takes for rhetoric to become action.

[Sheilbh]

Assuming these rebels won't be able to drive up the road to Tripoli, despite having the world best close air support, what will happen next and what should the west do ?

My guess is 90-120 days stalemate as some form of training team, maybe very covert westerners, Arab GCC or Egyptians train up 2-3 battalions of rebels/ retrain ex-libyian army defectors into some form of coherent military formations. Surely that would be enough to do the job ?

Is stalemate so bad?

[Admiral Yi]

Yep, we don't know there wouldn't have been one.  But at the time I don't think we could know that, and any massacre may not have been immediate.  He could well have wanted the media to move on.  But as I think Rwanda and the Balkans show there's normally reason to worry when a leader starts referring to a section of the people as snakes or cockroaches and it's difficult to intervene in the timeit takes for rhetoric to become action.

Maybe we should have sent in a team of UN Massacre Inspectors before acting.

[Caliga]

I think we should separate Cyrenaica from the rest of Libya.  Then, Cyrenaica can be our little bitch and what's more, we can secretly promise it to the Egyptians if they behave, but with no intention of ever giving it to the Egyptians (carrot on a stick and all that).  From that point forward, the Mediterranean from Haifa to Mersa Brega shall be our private lake.

[jamesww]

Assuming these rebels won't be able to drive up the road to Tripoli, despite having the world best close air support, what will happen next and what should the west do ?

My guess is 90-120 days stalemate as some form of training team, maybe very covert westerners, Arab GCC or Egyptians train up 2-3 battalions of rebels/ retrain ex-libyian army defectors into some form of coherent military formations. Surely that would be enough to do the job ?

Is stalemate so bad?

Search me :shrugs:

I'd have thought politically it would be embarrassing for Sarko and Cambers.

[jimmy olsen]

Before the air strikes the army was about to take Benghazi, there would've been a massacre and then they would have taken Tobruk.  I'd have guessed that we'd be looking at the sort of thing seen in Hama in the 80s.  Now Benghazi's been saved, Ajdabiya's been re-taken as has the major oil port and refinery's been taken and even Misrata seems to be holding out.  The air strikes won't immediately cause the regime to collapse, but the idea they've simply been ineffective is wrong.

I doubt we'll see western troops there except, possibly, special forces and people training the rebels.  Even then not for some time.  I don't think the impatience is there.

I agree, folks here seem to be overreacting quite a bit. If Qaddafi's forces try to move east again, especially if they have tanks, they're going to get hammered.

[citizen k]

We don't know what happened in Zawiya, but all signs (including removal of graves) point to something terrible.

[Ed Anger]

Eyewitness says residents of al-brega fleeing east after Libyan army regains control of ras lanuf.

run away! run away!

[jamesww]

Jon Snow, Channel 4 new, tweeted this:

" libyan rebels in chaotic retreat as London Summit struggles to find a way of getting rid of gadaffi without saying so.. "

[Darth Wagtaros]

Air strikes is like stiffening a bucket of spit by pouring in some buck shot.  And if NATO did send troops in just what the fuck are they supposed to do after wasting the big G?  Grab someone out of the mob that comprises the resistance and name him temporary president?

[Sheilbh]

Jon Snow, Channel 4 new, tweeted this:

" libyan rebels in chaotic retreat as London Summit struggles to find a way of getting rid of gadaffi without saying so.. "

I saw Paddy Ashdown on TV yesterday pointing out that the rebels looked dangerously over-extended and got a bit ahead of themselves after first airstrikes.

[Ed Anger]

This war is about as exciting as watching flies fuck.

[Caliga]

I've become very confused about which side to support.