Euro on the brink of collapse

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Marty just has no clue does he? The language barrier alone makes a cross-country move within the EU harder than any cross-state move in the US could ever be for an individual.

't never stopped those spanish, italians, greeks, polish, romanians, hungarians, portuguese and what else there is before. If it did we'd not be seeing so many foreign people around here.
Still, it's easier of course when everyone already understands you but there's been significantly more intra-european mobility in search for jobs than one would expect at first glance.

In any case: it's a fact that the nationstate politicians refuse to come to the logical solution: a common currency needs a common economical policy. But as long as national dick-waving trumps common sense I guess we'll go from the Irelands to the Greeces to the Portugals, Spains, Italies to the Belgiums and what not.

[Martinus]

Yeah, I find it funny that Americans dismiss European worker mobility as impossible due to language barriers, yet a substantial part of their of work force is composed of people whose first language is Spanish, rather than English. 

[sbr]

Yeah, I find it funny that Americans dismiss European worker mobility as impossible due to language barriers, yet a substantial part of their of work force is composed of people whose first language is Spanish, rather than English. 

I don't think anyone dismissed it as "impossible", just said it wasn't as likely or common as people moving around the US internally. 

Don't let my opinion stop anyone from throwing their ignorance around though.

[Syt]

Yeah, I find it funny that Americans dismiss European worker mobility as impossible due to language barriers, yet a substantial part of their of work force is composed of people whose first language is Spanish, rather than English. 

Yeah, but the U.S. model works a bit different. Either you find a job and integrate or you go under. No cushy welfare crutch.

[Martinus]

Yeah, I find it funny that Americans dismiss European worker mobility as impossible due to language barriers, yet a substantial part of their of work force is composed of people whose first language is Spanish, rather than English. 

Yeah, but the U.S. model works a bit different. Either you find a job and integrate or you go under. No cushy welfare crutch.

I think you only qualify for welfare in a given country if you have worked there before - i.e. a Polish worker can't just emigrate to Germany, for example, and immediately claim social welfare. In fact, the UK statistics show that even the migrant workers who subsequently lose their job are less likely to claim benefits than locals (instead, they just go back to their home countries).

So your post seems like the kind of populist scaremongering we have been getting lately.

[Josquius]

To be honest Tyr, there isn't a great difference between different states in the US.  It's not like each state has it's own several hundred years of history, or linguistic dialects (not like Europe's at least).  There are differences and people make a big deal about them, but when compared to Europe it's very small.  I suspect there are bigger regional differences in just England then there are in the US.  Only a few states feel really different.  Hawaii, and Alaska.  The rest of the country is remarkably homogenized.  Grumbler's lived all over the US (and in England I think), he probably knows better then me.

I've never said anything about there being big differences between the states, I'm just wondering about how mobile people are and where they generally move to.

[No, you never said that

Yes I did (can't be arsed to quote but it was something about insignificant shitty little central state to its equally naff neighbour). You need to check your glasses with this thread.

more probably come from other major states than neighboring, minor states.  Thus, more Californians in New York than people from Connecticut. More people in Texas from Ohio than from Oklahoma.  Etc.

But minor state to minor state?

[Tamas]

Marty just has no clue does he? The language barrier alone makes a cross-country move within the EU harder than any cross-state move in the US could ever be for an individual.

Most young Europeans speak English at least. This opens labour markets in the UK and Ireland, and many of the Western European big cities (I worked for 6 months in Brussels, and I don't speak a word in Flemish and do not know French very well, for example).

Maybe your fellow Hungarians don't emigrate for work much, because noone wants to hire gypos?

Brussels is a bad example because it is the political capital of the EU. As a matter of fact, your job is a bad example because IIRC its some cross-EU laws thingie, of course you are doing the same stuff.

And I am not dismissing intra-EU immigration altogether, of course it happens, and it is good that it happens.

All I am saying, and this really should be very basic stuff to grasp, is that it IS harder to move around the EU job-hunting than to do the same in the US, and the chief reason for this is lanugage.

[Razgovory]

Yeah, I find it funny that Americans dismiss European worker mobility as impossible due to language barriers, yet a substantial part of their of work force is composed of people whose first language is Spanish, rather than English. 

Serious question though.  Poles that travel the EU to get work.  Do they stay there and get citizenship in become British or whatever or do they go back or stay Polish citizens?

[DontSayBanana]

I don't think anyone dismissed it as "impossible", just said it wasn't as likely or common as people moving around the US internally. 

Don't let my opinion stop anyone from throwing their ignorance around though.

I'd hold off on making that claim until the 2008-9 numbers for migration are in.  The 2005-2007 migration to the south was a combination of a booming housing market and a lower cost of living in that region.  I think you'll find the southern migration came damn near a screeching halt when the housing bubble collapsed.

[Martim Silva]

The issue is actually very serious.

The fact is, the southern european nations (and Ireland to an extent) have surrendered their currencies to the EU, wich means that they cannot inflate their debt away.

Since nobody is willing to accept meaningful cuts (the 'crisis budget' Greece enacted will, at best, lower their deficit to 9,1% of GDP, which is still unsustaineable), and a rise in taxes (or interest rates) will tank our economies, the only way out would be a bailout from the ECB.

For now, the politicians, who cannot accept the massive loss of popularity/open revolt which will result from enacting the massive spending cuts needed, will merely 'kick the can' - i.e. claim everything will be solved and do nothing but take symbolic measures.

(Since everybody knows it's the Germans who will pay for it all, there isn't really an interest in enacting major cuts)

Eventually, the ECB will have to bail us all out. And the Italians too, since they'll be the next fiscal crisis.

And it's best if the Brits don't get too cocky. Britain has an ever bigger deficit, and the market just won't let London inflate the debt away, so you will soon join us all in the bin.

The question is, when will Germany get into a massive fiscal crisis for trying to bail out most of Europe? And who will help it?

Certainly not the US, whose deficit is breaking records with each passing year.

I think you only qualify for welfare in a given country if you have worked there before

Less-known fact: if you're from a EU member state and are recieving unemployment subsidy, you can go to another EU country and still recieve it for up to 6 months (request it at the appropriate buro in the country in question; it will bill your country of origin for it later).

This is done to increase intra-EU mobility.

[grumbler]

Same can be said about Poles in London. I think you are underestimating worker mobility within the EU.

I am not saying anything about worker mobility in Europe, so it is impossible for me to underestimate it. 

[Sahib]

Yeah, I find it funny that Americans dismiss European worker mobility as impossible due to language barriers, yet a substantial part of their of work force is composed of people whose first language is Spanish, rather than English. 

Serious question though.  Poles that travel the EU to get work.  Do they stay there and get citizenship in become British or whatever or do they go back or stay Polish citizens?

IIRC most got back or plans to go back, and there's hardly any point in getting British citizenship for EU nationals.

[grumbler]

Yeah, I find it funny that Americans dismiss European worker mobility as impossible due to language barriers, yet a substantial part of their of work force is composed of people whose first language is Spanish, rather than English. 

I find it funny that a Euro would resort to strawman arguments when it became clear his arguments about US geographic mobility were complete horseshit.

[grumbler]

Since nobody is willing to accept meaningful cuts (the 'crisis budget' Greece enacted will, at best, lower their deficit to 9,1% of GDP, which is still unsustaineable), and a rise in taxes (or interest rates) will tank our economies, the only way out would be a bailout from the ECB.

This must be humiliating for the proud Union that marched into Germany just 60 years or so ago.

[Martim Silva]

The language issue IS a big barrier in Europe, and less noticed in Britain because many people in Western Europe speak English.

And I don't know about Martinus, but everytime I go to the EC, apart from the top ranks - who love to speak in English - all the lower tiers prefer other languages, especially French.

And yes, Rumanians fare better here. Their language does help, at least in Portugal.

(except for rumanian gypsies, who do not work and send their women out to beg)

This must be humiliating for the proud Union that marched into Germany just 60 years or so ago.

The Union had other problems and its fair share of humiliation. Don't worry, the US will get its share of it soon, since your coming fiscal crisis will put everybody elses' to shame.

But the whole issue is also quite bad for Russia, because it tied too much of its economy to the West. As a result, the Russian economy has tanked hard because of the crisis.

What irks me is that in Moscow there is really confidence that things in the West will improve and with it the national economy. It stands in stark contratst to the Chinese view, who note in private that the West is stuck in a dead end of which there is no exit.