Obama to double down if Brown wins.

[Hansmeister]

I think it's clear Reid's in a difficult spot but I'd be very wary if I were the Republicans.  It's dangerous to presume anything at this stage and even more dangerous to underestimate a man who's been Senator for a swing state for over 20 years.

No, Reid is politically dead.  He's already being urged to retire by more and more Democratic political activists who are busy releasing polls showing that virtually any other Dem would do better than Reid.  Reid's negatives are well above 50 percent, there is virtually no chance of coming back from that death spiral.

Reid used to be able to win reelection in a centrist state by being a centrist.  As Majority Leader he hasn't had that luxury, hence he's toast.  Unless the GOP candidate is caught in bed with a live boy or a dead girl he'll win.

[Sheilbh]

No, Reid is politically dead.  He's already being urged to retire by more and more Democratic political activists who are busy releasing polls showing that virtually any other Dem would do better than Reid.  Reid's negatives are well above 50 percent, there is virtually no chance of coming back from that death spiral.

Reid used to be able to win reelection in a centrist state by being a centrist.  As Majority Leader he hasn't had that luxury, hence he's toast.  Unless the GOP candidate is caught in bed with a live boy or a dead girl he'll win.

This may all be true, but I find it ironic that in a thread about a Democrat losing an unloseable election - at least to some extent due to complacency - that you're arguing for the same complacency in an unloseable election for your side.  You have nothing to lose by being wary and cautious about the guy or by thinking he could still, wily old fox that he is, still pull it off.  Also you're in danger of turning him into the underdog - he may well be the underdog - but such a pose is a gift for any half-skilled jobbing politician.

[Hansmeister]

No, Reid is politically dead.  He's already being urged to retire by more and more Democratic political activists who are busy releasing polls showing that virtually any other Dem would do better than Reid.  Reid's negatives are well above 50 percent, there is virtually no chance of coming back from that death spiral.

Reid used to be able to win reelection in a centrist state by being a centrist.  As Majority Leader he hasn't had that luxury, hence he's toast.  Unless the GOP candidate is caught in bed with a live boy or a dead girl he'll win.

This may all be true, but I find it ironic that in a thread about a Democrat losing an unloseable election - at least to some extent due to complacency - that you're arguing for the same complacency in an unloseable election for your side.  You have nothing to lose by being wary and cautious about the guy or by thinking he could still, wily old fox that he is, still pull it off.  Also you're in danger of turning him into the underdog - he may well be the underdog - but such a pose is a gift for any half-skilled jobbing politician.

The problem is that Reid isn't a particularly good politician in most aspects.  He tends to make stupid comments that bite him in the arse, such as calling Obama "light-skinned without a negro accent", or denouncing Greenspan as a "political hack", declaring on the floor of the Senate that the war in Iraq is lost, etc.  He lacks charisma and intelligence.  He has only one skill he has been good at: leveraging his Senate seat and his large family of which virtually everyone is employed as a lobbyist to bring back massive amounts of pork.  Unfortunately for Reid, those are considered liabilities in this environment.

[Barrister]

Since when has bringing massive amounts of pork to your home state been a disadvantage?

[Hansmeister]

Since when has bringing massive amounts of pork to your home state been a disadvantage?

The political climate has changed.  Pork has never been popular, except for a very narrow special interest that benefitted from it, but the broad majority, while not liking it, didn't really care about it one way or another since it didn't effect them.  A hypermotivated small minority trumps a disinterested majority.

However, the economy, the massive deficits, and the massive amount of corruption so evident in the last year has created a poisonous atmosphere for such deals.  Suddenly the formerly disinterested majority is hypermotivated. Senator Ben Nelson found out recently when he was chased out of a restaurant in his native Nebraska for accepting a Medicaid payoff for his vote.  Most politicians haven't really caught on yet to the changing realities, which will probably result in a lot of "safe" incumbents losing their seats in November.

[Barrister]

Since when has bringing massive amounts of pork to your home state been a disadvantage?

The political climate has changed.  Pork has never been popular, except for a very narrow special interest that benefitted from it, but the broad majority, while not liking it, didn't really care about it one way or another since it didn't effect them.  A hypermotivated small minority trumps a disinterested majority.

However, the economy, the massive deficits, and the massive amount of corruption so evident in the last year has created a poisonous atmosphere for such deals.  Suddenly the formerly disinterested majority is hypermotivated. Senator Ben Nelson found out recently when he was chased out of a restaurant in his native Nebraska for accepting a Medicaid payoff for his vote.  Most politicians haven't really caught on yet to the changing realities, which will probably result in a lot of "safe" incumbents losing their seats in November.

Colour me: sceptical.

[Admiral Yi]

I'm with the shameless Apple whore.   I can see Nelson being chased out of a restaurant by Tea Bagger Know Nothings, not by highly principled anti porkists.

[Barrister]

I'm with the shameless Apple whore.   I can see Nelson being chased out of a restaurant by Tea Bagger Know Nothings, not by highly principled anti porkists.

I have plenty of shame.

[Admiral Yi]

I'm with the shameful Apple whore.

[Barrister]

I'm with the shameful Apple whore.

That's better.


...


Wait...   

[Caliga]

Speaking of Brown. 

http://gawker.com/5454403/republican-saviors-wife-starred-in-half+naked-music-video-about-handjobs

This guy just keeps getting better and better.

Scott Brown for IMPERATOR.

[KRonn]

I'm with the shameless Apple whore.   I can see Nelson being chased out of a restaurant by Tea Bagger Know Nothings, not by highly principled anti porkists.

Or likely a combination of all types. Principled anit-porkists, Tea Baggers who are well informed along with the know nothings, and average citizens who are tired, really tired, of the same old game in Washington. The game that Pres Obama claimed over and over again to change. But instead that game has become worse, by Congress and the Administration. Nelson is under a lot of heat over his dealings! Has lost popularity in his state in recent polling.

[KRonn]

Speaking of Brown. 

http://gawker.com/5454403/republican-saviors-wife-starred-in-half+naked-music-video-about-handjobs

This guy just keeps getting better and better.

Scott Brown for IMPERATOR.

Lol, I see Brown's name as possible next Presidential candidate or what ever. Sheesh. Let's not elect Brown to be President, political game changer, or anything else. He's still a new guy, unproven.

[Admiral Yi]

Or likely a combination of all types. Principled anit-porkists<snip>

Then it would likely be a first in US history.

[MadImmortalMan]

This is a very heavy lift for Harry Reid -- if he's the candidate, we have him at less than a 20 percent chance of holding onto his seat. There's plenty of polling in this race and while there are a few incumbents who have come back from the sort of hole he finds himself in, it's awfully rare. Although PPP's polling showed that Shelly Berkley's numbers weren't any better than Reid's, the algorithm begs to differ: she's an experienced office-holder, and it's hard to do worse than an approval rating of about 40 percent. A long-shot candidacy by Vegas mayor Oscar Goodman could actually make Dems the favorites here.

Poor Harry is gonna get Daschled by the looks of it unless something big happens in the next few months. The comment about Oscar Goodman is interesting, and it should be noted that Oscar is also a favorite to unseat the Governor. The talk about him has been primarily in that regard. But if Harry decides to retire (or if he wakes up with a horse head or simply loses the primary), I'd call Goodman the favorite. He'd have to rejoin the Democrat Party though. He's an independent atm, and the buzz was that he might join the GOP to primary out the Governor. (Because Harry Reid's son is the presumptive Dem nominee). Although there are two other major GOP names about to do that anyway.

Obviously, he's not a cookie-cutter Dem.

And now, the Happiest Mayor in the USA has officially removed himself from the Governor's race. Hmmm...