New poll has Mass. Senate race in a dead heat

[Darth Wagtaros]

She got it before the election even came up. 

[KRonn]

Kron, Wags, is Coakley getting a lot of shit for this back home?

http://www.boston.com/news/local/massachusetts/articles/2010/01/06/some_saw_coakley_as_lax_on_05_rape_case/

I've heard some talk about it or other issues in the context of her as Attorney General, but I wouldn't say it's a big issue being discussed.

Right now Coakley is getting grief over her comments, to the Boston Globe, when they asked if she was not getting out among voters. She asked, what, should "I stand in the cold shaking hands, in front of Fenway Park", apparently after Brown was doing that. She shot herself in the foot on that one.

The same week one of her entourage knocked down a reporter on a Washington DC street. In the pictures you can see her standing right there, but she said later that she didn't see it happen. That was while on her tour in DC to meet with big Pharma, big Union and other well heeled groups. You know, all the kinds of groups that the Dems and liberals like to bash, except when making deals with them of course. Yeah, that's in the news. A bad week over all for Coakley, the week just prior to the election. But she has had the Democrat political machine revving up negative ads on Brown this week.

One local poll by Suffolk university political dept has Brown up by a few points, which is the margin of error. So what ever, still huge that a Repub is in the running whether he wins or not; very telling.

[Caliga]

I'm going to laugh my ass off if "Ted Kennedy's" seat goes to the GOP in the very first election following his death.

[KRonn]

This is what I've been hearing this week. Brown's favorability ratings are very high. And his name recognition is very high as well, for a relatively unknown not  too long ago.

http://theamericano.com/2010/01/11/the-massachusetts-senate-race-too-close-to-call/

The Massachusetts Senate Race: Too Close to Call

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Republican Scott Brown leads Martha Coakley 48-47, according a Public Policy Polling survey released on Saturday. This is due to a huge advantage with independents and relative disinterest from Democratic voters Massachusetts.
After the Public Policy Polling survey finding that the special election to fill Ted Kennedy's Senate seat was a toss-up, a Boston Globe poll released yesterday found Democrat Martha Coakley beating Republican Scott Brown by a 15-point margin.
The Globe poll was taken from Jan. 2-6th, while PPP was in the field from Jan. 7th-9th. The Globe only polled 81 independents, while PPP polled about 290. Such a difference in sample size could explain the wide difference in results among independents.
Rasmussen Reports had Coakley up by 9% in a poll that we wrote about last week. The election is next Tuesday, Jan. 19. The Democrats need a victory in this reliably blue state in order to keep President Obama's health care bill on track.
Tom Jensen, from the Public Policy Polling, points out several major factors leading to this surprising state of affairs in Massachusetts.
The electorate in Massachusetts will be considerably more conservative than the one that showed up in 2008.
Obama took the state by 26 points then, but those planning to vote next week only report having voted for him by 16.
Republicans are considerably more enthusiastic and excited about turning out to vote than Democrats are.
Scott Brown has very good numbers with independents, sporting a 70/16 favorability rating with them and holding a 63-31 lead in the horse race with Coakley.
Only 21% of Massachusetts voters have a favorable opinion of Congressional Republicans... but at the same time only 33% view Congressional Democrats favorably.
Among voters who have a negative take on both parties, who account for more than 20% of the electorate, Brown leads 74-21.
Brown's favorability spread is a remarkable +32, at 57/25. For some perspective on how good those numbers are, Bob McDonnell in Virginia was at a +20 spread with his state voters in the Public Policy Polling´s final survey there before going on to a 17 point victory.
Coakley can certainly still win this race, perhaps even by a comfortable margin. Here's what she needs to do, especially if she makes this race about Ted Kennedy's legacy.
Brown is surprisingly popular, but given his short time on the statewide political stage in Massachusetts, we cannot forget that the overall GOP brand is terrible with Massachusetts voters.
Public Policy Polling indicates that there is little doubt that Republicans and GOP leaning independents are going to come out and vote for Scott Brown.
As we approach the final ten days of this senate race in Massachusetts is well past the stage where Democrats can take it for granted that will happen.
With polls tightening in the special election, former president Bill Clinton says he will campaign for Democratic nominee Martha Coakley. Clinton will be in Boston with Democrat Senator John Kerry, on Friday.
The Americano / Agencies
Elections are going to be close in Massachussetts

Elections are going to be close in Massachussetts

Republican Scott Brown leads Martha Coakley 48-47, according a Public Policy Polling survey released on Saturday. This is due to a huge advantage with independents and relative disinterest from Democratic voters in  Massachusetts.

After the Public Policy Polling survey finding that the special election to fill Ted Kennedy's Senate seat was a toss-up, a Boston Globe poll released yesterday found Democrat Martha Coakley beating Republican Scott Brown by a 15-point margin.

The Globe poll was taken from Jan. 2-6th, while PPP was in the field from Jan. 7th-9th. The Globe only polled 81 independents, while PPP polled about 290. Such a difference in sample size could explain the wide difference in results among independents.

Rasmussen Reports had Coakley up by 9% in a poll that we wrote about last week. The election is next Tuesday, Jan. 19. The Democrats need a victory in this reliably blue state in order to keep President Obama's health care bill on track.

Tom Jensen, from the Public Policy Polling, points out several major factors leading to this surprising state of affairs in Massachusetts.

The electorate in Massachusetts will be considerably more conservative than the one that showed up in 2008.

Obama took the state by 26 points then, but those planning to vote next week only report having voted for him by 16.

Republicans are considerably more enthusiastic and excited about turning out to vote than Democrats are.

Scott Brown has very good numbers with independents, sporting a 70/16 favorability rating with them and holding a 63-31 lead in the horse race with Coakley.

Only 21% of Massachusetts voters have a favorable opinion of Congressional Republicans... but at the same time only 33% view Congressional Democrats favorably.

Among voters who have a negative take on both parties, who account for more than 20% of the electorate, Brown leads 74-21.

Brown's favorability spread is a remarkable +32, at 57/25. For some perspective on how good those numbers are, Bob McDonnell in Virginia was at a +20 spread with his state voters in the Public Policy Polling's final survey there before going on to a 17 point victory.

Coakley can certainly still win this race, perhaps even by a comfortable margin. Here's what she needs to do, especially if she makes this race about Ted Kennedy's legacy.

Brown is surprisingly popular, but given his short time on the statewide political stage in Massachusetts, we cannot forget that the overall GOP brand is terrible with Massachusetts voters.

Public Policy Polling indicates that there is little doubt that Republicans and GOP leaning independents are going to come out and vote for Scott Brown.

As we approach the final ten days of this senate race in Massachusetts is well past the stage where Democrats can take it for granted that will happen.

With polls tightening in the special election, former president Bill Clinton says he will campaign for Democratic nominee Martha Coakley. Clinton will be in Boston with Democrat Senator John Kerry, on Friday.

The Americano / Agencies

[Caliga]

This election, from what I'm hearing, reminds me of the O'Brien-Romney matchup for governor back in like 2002 or whenever it was.

[KRonn]

Another article on the race in the Herald today, gives more info on the latest polling info. Kind of long to post it all.

http://www.bostonherald.com/news/politics/view/20100114brown-out_poll_shows_scott_brown_trumping_martha_coakley/srvc=home&position=0

[Darth Wagtaros]

This election, from what I'm hearing, reminds me of the O'Brien-Romney matchup for governor back in like 2002 or whenever it was.

Yeah, it does. 

[Caliga]

Female politicians in Mass. really have a rough time.  Remember Jane "Swift"?

[KRonn]

Kind of an over all summary of what I'm seeing/hearing reported locally on the radio, tv, newspapers.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2010/01/15/coakley-suffers-setbacks-final-week-senate-campaign/



A late surge by Republican Scott Brown has stripped away the sense of inevitability his Democratic opponent, Martha Coakley, once had in the race for U.S. senator in Massachusetts.

Polls show the race is now a dead heat, and the most recent survey has Brown leading by 4 points. The Republican state senator has all the momentum -- he's reportedly raising money at a rate of $1 million a day -- and there's no shortage of criticism in political circles for the way Coakley and her allies have run her campaign.

Just one month ago, Coakley, the state's attorney general, was considered a shoo-in to claim the U.S. Senate seat formerly held by the late Sen. Ted Kennedy.

"Who could have foreseen this a month ago? ... This is absolutely amazing," said Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics. "(Coakley's) problem is they've got to motivate Democrats."

Coakley's campaign has been plagued by missteps, big and small, that may have given Brown an opening.
related links

    *

      Brown Takes Lead Over Coakley in Massachusetts Race, Poll Shows
    *

      Brown Reportedly Raising $1 Million Per Day in Senate Race

She's been broadly criticized for not being aggressive enough, particularly when Brown's campaign put up a brazen ad late last month comparing his campaign for a Democratic seat to John F. Kennedy's campaign nearly 60 years ago for what was then a Republican seat.

Asked if her campaign was going too soft, Coakley may have made another blunder.

"As opposed to standing outside Fenway Park? In the cold? Shaking hands?'' she told The Boston Globe, in what appeared to be a reference to Brown's campaigning style.

Former Red Sox pitcher Curt Schilling, a figure of considerable stature in baseball-mad New England, picked up on that line and blasted Coakley as an elitist who wasn't trying hard enough to win the seat.

"She's apparently been trying to win the title of Worst Political Campaign Ever, and she might have just clinched it with her little dig at Scott Brown over Fenway Park," Schilling wrote on his blog.

The Democratic Party's heavy hitters, meanwhile, have kicked into overdrive, with top senators appealing to supporters for donations and former President Bill Clinton joining up with Massachusetts' senior senator, John Kerry, for a Friday afternoon rally.

Democrats warn that a Brown win could torpedo health care reform and other Obama administration initiatives, since he would break the Democrats' 60-vote, filibuster-proof majority in the Senate. "This is our wake-up call," Kerry said in a recent fundraising e-mail. 

"Martha's vote is critical to getting health care and the rest of President Obama's agenda passed," Kerry wrote.

But Murphy's law seems to have prevailed over the past week.

-- A Coakley supporter knocked over a reporter from the Weekly Standard in full view of the cameras outside a Washington fundraiser Tuesday. Coakley said she didn't see it, but a photograph of the incident appeared to show her looking in the direction of the reporter when he fell. Her supporter later apologized.

-- Coakley was quoted at that fundraiser saying a loss in Massachusetts would be "hell" for Democrats in the 2010 elections. She denied she said it, but observers in the room confirmed that she had.

-- Coakley's campaign even misspelled Massachusetts in one of her ads, an error quickly pointed out by Republicans.

It's not clear whether President Obama will make a trip to Massachusetts to campaign before Tuesday's election; the White House insists nothing is planned. But the president did come to Coakley's aid by cutting an online video for her, calling on supporters to put on their "walking shoes" and bring out people to vote.

"In Washington, I'm fighting to curb the abuses of a health insurance industry that routinely denies care," Obama said. "I'm fighting for financial reforms to stop Wall Street from playing havoc with our economy. I'm fighting to create a new, clean energy economy.

"And it's clear now that the outcome of these and other fights will probably rest on one vote in the United States Senate."

[garbon]

I called my mother to make sure that she votes.

[jimmy olsen]

 

In a recent debate, asked about her lack of foreign policy experience, the first credential Coakley offered in response was that "I have a sister who lives overseas, and she's been in England and now lives in the Middle East."

http://newsbusters.org/blogs/mark-finkelstein/2009/10/27/martha-coakleys-sister-can-see-middle-east-her-house

[Fate]

Come on Republicans, KILL THE BILL!

[jimmy olsen]

Another poll out with Brown up 3%

http://www.politico.com/blogs/scorecard/0110/Poll_Brown_48_Coakley_45.html

[Faeelin]

I don't get the joke. She's a Senator. What was Palin's?

[alfred russel]

I don't get the joke. She's a Senator. What was Palin's?

If you click the link Tim provided, they are making fun of her with comparisons to Palin.