New poll has Mass. Senate race in a dead heat

[jimmy olsen]

Much as I'd like this to be true, there's no way I'm gonna buy this until I see other polls in the same ballpark.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_MA_45398436.pdf

Senate Race Competitive
Raleigh, N.C. – The race to replace Ted Kennedy in the US Senate is looking like a toss
up, with Republican Scott Brown up 48-47 on Martha Coakley.

Brown is benefiting from depressed Democratic interest in the election and a huge lead
among independents for his surprisingly strong standing. Those planning to vote in the
special election only report having voted for Barack Obama in 2008 by a 16 point
margin, in contrast to his actual 26 point victory in the state.

That decline in turnout from Obama voters plagued Democratic candidates for Governor
in Virginia and New Jersey last fall. Beyond that 66% of Republicans say they're 'very
excited' about turning out while only 48% of Democrats express that sentiment.

Brown leads 63-31 with independents and is winning 17% of the Democratic vote while
Coakley receives only 6% support from GOP voters. Both candidates are relatively
popular, with 57% viewing Brown favorably to only 25% unfavorable and 50% with a
positive opinion of Coakley to 42% negative.

Those folks planning to vote in the special election are actually opposed to Obama's
health care plan by a 47/41 margin and only narrowly express approval of the President's
overall job performance 44/43.

"The Massachusetts Senate race is shaping up as a potential disaster for Democrats," said
Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. "Martha Coakley's complacent
campaign has put Scott Brown in a surprisingly strong position and she will need to step
it up in the final week to win a victory once thought inevitable."

PPP surveyed 744 likely Massachusetts voters from January 7th to 9th. The margin of
error is +/-3.6%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may
introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Complete results are attached and can be found at www.publicpolicypolling.com.

[Sheilbh]

I don't know much about Public Policy Polling, but I'll note that I've seen a few sensational poll results from them over the last year (10% of Republicans think Obama is the anti-Christ sticks out) which makes me rather suspicious.  This isn't as sensational as their other polls that I've read about and they could be wholly legit, but I'm a little bit suspicious of them.

[CountDeMoney]

TIMMAY TEAM HIJACK

[garbon]

El Seed can be so mean.

[jimmy olsen]

TIMMAY TEAM HIJACK

I shut pics on my work computer off months ago.

Shielbh, they're a respected firm. I just think it's the fact that it's a special election that has the polling so scattershot, no one is quite sure who will actually show up on election day.

[Razgovory]

I don't know much about Public Policy Polling, but I'll note that I've seen a few sensational poll results from them over the last year (10% of Republicans think Obama is the anti-Christ sticks out) which makes me rather suspicious.  This isn't as sensational as their other polls that I've read about and they could be wholly legit, but I'm a little bit suspicious of them.

This is probably something wrong with Republicans rather then polls.  Republicans believe in such bizarre things that it would make Hans blush.

[Faeelin]

Hrmm. What I find odd about this race is that the Democrats would view it as a sign they're too radical. Maybe they have, maybe they haven't; but does anyone really think Obama's done things that are too leftist for Massachussetts Democrats?

[Darth Wagtaros]

Hrmm. What I find odd about this race is that the Democrats would view it as a sign they're too radical. Maybe they have, maybe they haven't; but does anyone really think Obama's done things that are too leftist for Massachussetts Democrats?

It is a strange bunch here.  It may be.

I'm inclined to vote Republican because I am upset about the way this special election was handled.  Changing the laws every few years is obnoxious.

[Fate]

I would vote Republican in this race just to watch the train wreck it could create with the health care bill.

When would the winner of this election take office?

[KRonn]

Hrmm. What I find odd about this race is that the Democrats would view it as a sign they're too radical. Maybe they have, maybe they haven't; but does anyone really think Obama's done things that are too leftist for Massachussetts Democrats?

It is a strange bunch here.  It may be.

I'm inclined to vote Republican because I am upset about the way this special election was handled.  Changing the laws every few years is obnoxious.

Agreed about changing the laws when it better suits the party here. And yes, Massachusetts voters, left leaning, also have a streak of libertarian in them. Largest group here is Independents, I think.

As for this poll, I'd have to see how it was done and the track record of that group. If it was likely voters then it should carry more weight. Other polls show the race tightening, and with Coakley leading. But to the point where some Dem heavy weights are speaking up for Coakley now, so some worry is apparent. Some of the Kennedy family members came out to endorse her, and I wonder how much weight that carries, or if people are a bit tired of the Kennedy era. I still say that Coakley is in the catbird seat, has great chances of winning. But Brown is a relative unknown so if he is even in the running that may say a lot.

[KRonn]

I would vote Republican in this race just to watch the train wreck it could create with the health care bill.

When would the winner of this election take office?

Funny you mention that about taking office. There was some talk of the Mass Governor working with Dems to delay the new candidate if Repub Brown wins it, in order to try and allow the health scare vote to go first. Maybe just talk and rumors but I don't put it past this Mass crowd given the way they've been changing special election laws to suit them.

[Valmy]

2010 = Revenge of the RINOs?

[Darth Wagtaros]

 

2010 = Revenge of the RINOs?

[Fate]

I would vote Republican in this race just to watch the train wreck it could create with the health care bill.

When would the winner of this election take office?

Funny you mention that about taking office. There was some talk of the Mass Governor working with Dems to delay the new candidate if Repub Brown wins it, in order to try and allow the health scare vote to go first. Maybe just talk and rumors but I don't put it past this Mass crowd given the way they've been changing special election laws to suit them.

I don't know that Republicans can complain. Franken lost a good part of his first year to the recount fight. Coleman was certainly helped by having Pawlenty as Governor.

[jimmy olsen]

Rasmussen has Coakley only up by 2% so I guess the race really is neck and neck.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/01/massachusetts-its-not-just-about.html