Swine flu vaccine: Poland smarter than everybody else :P

[Martinus]

Poland didn't buy swine flu vaccines. Apparently, the rate of deaths and illnesses in Poland is about the same as in Germany and France, and way below the normal annual flu.

So to all those who were going into hysterics about the swine flu vaccine on Languish: 

That's a bit like playing one round of Russian roulette, getting an empty chamber, and then boasting about how all those sissies were wrong to criticize you for playing.

Not really. There were numerous voices saying that the swine flu scare is being hyped up by pharmaceutical corporations and the like (and I remember many people here on Languish saying they have no intention of being vaccinated - although more in Europe than in the US). These voices prove to be correct and there has been little surprise there.

So it's more like refusing to buy a very expensive tinfoil hat and then boasting about how you don't get mindcontrolled by aliens, just like all the idiots who bought it.

[Tamas]

 

sure it was overhyped but where do you draw that line? Of course it was not so lethal, how could it be after the media was full of it right from the beginning and companies etc. jumped on the bandwagon to prevent it?

[DGuller]

Not really. There were numerous voices saying that the swine flu scare is being hyped up by pharmaceutical corporations and the like (and I remember many people here on Languish saying they have no intention of being vaccinated - although more in Europe than in the US). These voices prove to be correct and there has been little surprise there.

Homer: Well, there's not a bear in sight. The Bear Patrol is sure doing its job.
Lisa: That's specious reasoning, Dad.
Homer: Thank you, sweetie.
Lisa: Dad, what if I were to tell you that this rock keeps away tigers.
Homer: Uh-huh, and how does it work?
Lisa: It doesn't work. It's just a stupid rock.
Homer: I see.
Lisa: But you don't see any tigers around, do you?
Homer: Lisa, I'd like to buy your rock.

[Slargos]

sure it was overhyped but where do you draw that line? Of course it was not so lethal, how could it be after the media was full of it right from the beginning and companies etc. jumped on the bandwagon to prevent it?

You bought the foil hat. 

[DGuller]

The point of my Russian roulette analogy is that in life, it's possible to make a bad decision and get lucky.  Life is not deterministic, life is very much stochastic, with chance playing a big role. 

There aren't just two possible states that could encompass the swine flu threat: "full on pandemic" or "overhyped threat".  The more likely model is that a threat much like the swine flu has a 5% chance of becoming a devastating pandemic like the Spanish flu, and a 95% chance of being just the plain old flu.  Just because you invent some stupid reason to convince yourself to take your chances doesn't mean that your reason was correct.  It's much more likely that you just wound up in the lucky 95% of the outcomes.

Results-oriented thinking is human, but it's very fallacious when you're dealing with stochastic events.  I like this kind of thinking in other people, it makes it easier for me to win at poker.

[Tamas]

Results-oriented thinking is human, but it's very fallacious when you're dealing with stochastic events.  I like this kind of thinking in other people, it makes it easier for me to win at poker.

[Tamas]

sure it was overhyped but where do you draw that line? Of course it was not so lethal, how could it be after the media was full of it right from the beginning and companies etc. jumped on the bandwagon to prevent it?

You bought the foil hat. 

I did buy the anti-swine flu shot, but as the above example, it is like poker: if I don't get the shot, I am wagering the cost of it that I will not get infected. Now, if you take the odds of that (like me working together with a thousand other people from various parts of the country) and compare it to what I will lose if I do get infected (couple of weeks of flu, some chance of them being severe), I would have been stupid to not take it.

[Martinus]

The point of my Russian roulette analogy is that in life, it's possible to make a bad decision and get lucky.  Life is not deterministic, life is very much stochastic, with chance playing a big role. 

There aren't just two possible states that could encompass the swine flu threat: "full on pandemic" or "overhyped threat".  The more likely model is that a threat much like the swine flu has a 5% chance of becoming a devastating pandemic like the Spanish flu, and a 95% chance of being just the plain old flu.  Just because you invent some stupid reason to convince yourself to take your chances doesn't mean that your reason was correct.  It's much more likely that you just wound up in the lucky 95% of the outcomes.

Results-oriented thinking is human, but it's very fallacious when you're dealing with stochastic events.  I like this kind of thinking in other people, it makes it easier for me to win at poker.

One fallacy I can immediately spot in your reasoning (and one that is probably one of the reasons why this threat was overhyped) is the misuse of the word "pandemic". yes, the swine flu is in a pandemic state, which means it is everywhere. It doesn't mean however that everybody will get it, and even less how dangerous it will be to people who get it.

So yes, we have a "full on pandemic" but most people (yourself included) seem to conflate it with the risk it presents - which is wrong.

[DGuller]

One fallacy I can immediately spot in your reasoning (and one that is probably one of the reasons why this threat was overhyped) is the misuse of the word "pandemic". yes, the swine flu is in a pandemic state, which means it is everywhere. It doesn't mean however that everybody will get it, and even less how dangerous it will be to people who get it.

So yes, we have a "full on pandemic" but most people (yourself included) seem to conflate it with the risk it presents - which is wrong.

OK, you got me on semantics.  What I meant by "pandemic" is a virulent flu that kills millions of healthy people.  Yes, I realize that it's not the correct usage, but you know what I meant.  And, no, I didn't conflate anything with my wrong use of language, I knew what other people meant as well when they were talking about the dangers.

[The Brain]

How much revenue did big pharma get from the hysteria?

[Martinus]

How much revenue did big pharma get from the hysteria?

Seeing how they didn't distribute it directly but rather required governments to buy whole batches up front (like the French, who bought 100 million doses, believing you need to vaccinate everybody twice; and only 5 millions were used so far since people don't want to get vaccinated), I think they made a pretty big buck.

[Martinus]

Anyway, the problem with the stance taken by Poland (assuming it was a "wrong" stance) is not that it is unnecessary risk taking, but rather free riding.

[Ed Anger]

Yep, it'll be 3 potatoes each next Christmas dinner for the Poles 

The Russians stole two of them and the last one is rotten. So sad, too bad.

[merithyn]

That's a bit like playing one round of Russian roulette, getting an empty chamber, and then boasting about how all those sissies were wrong to criticize you for playing.

Sure, if the gun had a million chambers and one bullet.

The sad thing is that despite numerous studies that the Swine Flu wasn't the epidemic everyone thought it would be, so many still think it was akin to the Spanish Flu. It wasn't. It was a flu bug that dropped people to their knees for a week or two, but nothing more.

Recalculating the Tally in Swine Flu Deaths

By DONALD G. McNEIL Jr.
Published: November 10, 2009

About 4,000 Americans — rather than about 1,200 — have died of swine flu since the disease emerged in April, according to new figures being calculated by epidemiologists for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
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Times Topics: Swine Flu (H1N1 Virus)

The larger number of deaths does not mean the virus is more dangerous. Rather, it is a new estimate made by combining deaths from laboratory-confirmed cases of the flu and deaths that appear to be brought on by flu, even though the patient may have ultimately died of bacterial pneumonia, other infections or organ failure.

The new estimate of deaths — actually a range both larger and smaller than 4,000 — will not be released until sometime next week because the centers' consultants are still looking over the figures, said Glen Nowak, a C.D.C. spokesman.

The new estimate will be a more accurate comparison to the 36,000 deaths from seasonal flu each year, he said. That estimate is also based on confirmed cases as well as hospital reports of people who appear to have died after a bout of flu. Over 90 percent of seasonal flu victims are over 65, and many are bedridden or in nursing homes or have serious medical problems like cancer or heart disease that the flu worsens.

[DGuller]

I don't think many thought it was akin to a Spanish flu, but rather they feared it could mutate into another Spanish flu.  Just because such fears turn out to be not be realized doesn't mean that they were unjustified.