Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono

[MadImmortalMan]

Theory is the Greek exit is already baked in and the thing would cause them to buy euros. Of course if it just stoked fear about Spain and/or the ECB to print that could go out the window. Dunno, I never trade forex.

[alfred russel]

Theory is the Greek exit is already baked in and the thing would cause them to buy euros. Of course if it just stoked fear about Spain and/or the ECB to print that could go out the window. Dunno, I never trade forex.

First, I don't think a Greek exit is baked in. If you look at gambling markets like intrade, it isn't.

Second, Greece is a very small country. The extent to which it uses its crappy new currency to buy euros will be partially offset by people using euros to buy the crappy new currency, and in both cases the effect will be muted because Greece is so small. The implications for Spain and Italy are much larger.

[alfred russel]

Now that I am home on a computer that doesn't block gambling sites, Intrade has the odds of a country dropping the euro by 12/31/2012 at 41.5%. If you think that is a sure thing, that seems to be the bet.

[DGuller]

Now that I am home on a computer that doesn't block gambling sites, Intrade has the odds of a country dropping the euro by 12/31/2012 at 41.5%. If you think that is a sure thing, that seems to be the bet.

Are those bets euro- or dollar-denominated?   

[alfred russel]

Now that I am home on a computer that doesn't block gambling sites, Intrade has the odds of a country dropping the euro by 12/31/2012 at 41.5%. If you think that is a sure thing, that seems to be the bet.

Are those bets euro- or dollar-denominated?   

Dollar.

[MadImmortalMan]

There was a rumor on the twitter machine yesterday that Greece would go 1/1/2013. I think it depends more on the Greeks themselves. The rest of the EZ seems to be pretty supportive of keeping them in.

[Admiral Yi]

I would love for Greece to walk away from the deal.

[citizen k]

Europeans Betting Millions That Facebook Will Plunge Another 30% By December

While US banks have been busy refocusing their "creative financial products"-time over the past two months, instead defending against allegations of muppetism, or explaining how hedging is really betting it all on red, and then doubling down (just because the casino supposedly has the bank's back), Europe has been busy coming up with new and creative ways of betting on the demise of FaceBook. While official shorting of the most overhyped and overvalued company in history only became a reality for most investors today, Europe's banks have a head start courtesy of "innovated" structured products created by UBS, Commerzbank and Julius Baer. As Bloomberg explains, "the most actively traded structured products tied to Facebook since its IPO have been so-called put warrants, whose buyers profit if the shares drop below a pre-defined level, in some cases as low as $22, data compiled by Bloomberg show. UBS AG (UBSN), Commerzbank AG (CBK) and Julius Baer Group Ltd. (BAER) are among lenders that listed 1,504 warrants and certificates in Europe linked to shares of the social networking site that were offered at $38...."There has been strong demand on the put side, with the ratio between puts and calls at around 70/30" with "some people expressing deep downside views," Heiko Geiger, the head of public distribution for Germany and Austria at Bank Vontobel AG in Frankfurt, said in an interview yesterday."
The Facebook strange attractor: magic number 22. With a $ sign. From Bloomberg:

Bank Vontobel's best-selling Facebook-linked product is a put warrant that will reward investors if the shares are below $22, the so-called strike price, in December, said Geiger. Put warrants give investors a cash payment depending on how far a stock falls below a set level.

Julius Baer sold the securities with the largest trading volumes, two put warrants with strikes of $35 and $30 on the Scoach exchange in Zurich. Investors traded 402,000 contracts yesterday valued at $335,780 of the former and 603,000 warrants for $322,620 of the latter, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Zurich-based structured products distributor EFG Financial Products AG added Facebook shares to a basket of 10 social media companies that are tracked by a certificate that has traded on Scoach since last month, it said in an e-mailed statement.

Of course, should FB implode to the degree expected, while on one hand it will subtract meaningful points from GDP growth as retail ends up, once again, poorer, the one biggest winner will be securities law attorneys, who are sensing so much blood courtesy of FaceBook's brand new multi-billion cash hoard, that Zuckerberg will have no choice but to 'invest' almost exclusively in legal defense teams and settlement reserves, leaving him with no time, or money, to find (and fund) the next even lower IRR social-media bolt on acquisition.

[MadImmortalMan]

RIMM down to ten bucks.

[MadImmortalMan]

Carl Icahn is buying up a big piece of Chesapeake Energy. Hopefully he can slap some people around.

[MadImmortalMan]

Carl Icahn is buying up a big piece of Chesapeake Energy. Hopefully he can slap some people around.

Oh snap, that was fast.

Icahn seeks removal of 4 Chesapeake directors

13 min ago4:13 p.m. May 25, 2012

- Matt Andrejczak

[Caliga]

So I enrolled in the ESPP today.  Company stock at a 10% discount with no brokerage fees and a ~3.65% quarterly dividend?  YES PLZ.

[Caliga]

I used to own CHK years ago.  Made a killing on it.

[Admiral Yi]

So I enrolled in the ESPP today.  Company stock at a 10% discount with no brokerage fees and a ~3.65% quarterly dividend?  YES PLZ.

My discount is 15%.

[Caliga]

Nice.