Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono

[The Minsky Moment]

That is dangerous as hell though right? Even if I am sure that eventually the bubble would pop I would be seriously white knuckling it while the bubble continues to inflate.

Historically pre-crash booms can run 2-4 years before the crash (think 1929 stocks, 2000 tech stocks, 2008 RE and structured securities).  It's not easy to maintain a short that long. You'd have to time it more precisely and good luck doing that.

[Admiral Yi]

Michael Burry (Big Short) bought puts on 1 million shares of NVidia.  Goldman Sachs CEO predicts 15% pullback over 12 to 24 months.

[mongers]

Does all the talk about it now make it a self-fulling prophecy?

[Josquius]

Big drops today I notice.
I was thinking it'd hold off another few months at least but... Could it be nigh?

I mean this headline:

AMD shares fall today after reporting record quarterly earnings and issuing revenue guidance above analyst expectations.

[Admiral Yi]

Squeeze, if you're looking for certainty before you take your shot there's no such thing.

[Josquius]

Squeeze, if you're looking for certainty before you take your shot there's no such thing.

There's certainty then there's "Record earnings and guidance above expectations!!!"- fall.

[Admiral Yi]

I don't understand your point.

I thought about it and came up with this advice for you.  Buy one long dated put on NVidia.  A December 18 2026 put with a strike price of $100 (current price is 201) would cost you $320.67.  That's your entire downside, the most you can lose.  Or buy three contracts at 960.

That way you are in the action, you've got skin in the game, you get validation if you're right.  You're part of a historic moment.  You can tell your grandkids you were in on the great AI bubble.

Please don't be the wallstreetbets ijit who bets his entire life savings on a coin toss.

[Valmy]

Does all the talk about it now make it a self-fulling prophecy?

Maybe. So much does seem based on vibes in this economy.

[crazy canuck]

Does all the talk about it now make it a self-fulling prophecy?

Maybe. So much does seem based on vibes in this economy.

And it is important to remember this is not about retail investors inflating the price, this is about circular trading by the tech giants driving up the price.  I think they have gone all in, and at this point I don't think they can back out.

[Tamas]

I don't understand your point.

I thought about it and came up with this advice for you.  Buy one long dated put on NVidia.  A December 18 2026 put with a strike price of $100 (current price is 201) would cost you $320.67.  That's your entire downside, the most you can lose.  Or buy three contracts at 960.

That way you are in the action, you've got skin in the game, you get validation if you're right.  You're part of a historic moment.  You can tell your grandkids you were in on the great AI bubble.

Please don't be the wallstreetbets ijit who bets his entire life savings on a coin toss.

Access to US Options for Europeans is complicated. And you need a $25,000 account as a minimum.

[Admiral Yi]

Ah.

Are there Yuro/Uk AI stocks?

Can you tell me what you mean by complicated?

[Admiral Yi]

I googled the first question, so that would be doable.

[Admiral Yi]

Thanks to google's AI for answering my question. 

[HVC]

Thanks to google's AI for answering my question. 

Based on my experience theres a 50/50 chance that answer is incorrect

[Admiral Yi]

Based on my experience theres a 50/50 chance that answer is incorrect

Seriously?  Google in particular?