Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono

[Tonitrus]

Sounds like Musk is building up his image to run for President.

Don't worry...like Schwarzenegger, he is ineligible.

[Tonitrus]

Any Tesla stockholders in the room? 

It's up so far today. 

[Admiral Yi]

Looks like Gollum missed his call.

What did you vacillators end up doing?  DGuller?  Squeeze?

[DGuller]

What does it mean for Gollum to miss his call? Did someone leave him a voicemail?

I legged it in, or more like footed it in, or even toed it in.  I'm still not convinced that the market really priced in all of the virus, bubble burst, recession, and post-COVID recovery mismanagement.  Even if it has, it surely hasn't grossly overpriced them.

[mongers]

What does it mean for Gollum to miss his call? Did someone leave him a voicemail?

I legged it in, or more like footed it in, or even toed it in.  I'm still not convinced that the market really priced in all of the virus, bubble burst, recession, and post-COVID recovery mismanagement.  Even if it has, it surely hasn't grossly overpriced them.

US jobless rate rises to 14.7% as coronavirus pandemic devastates the economy - 20.5 million jobs lost in April

This'll be the story the world over this Spring. 

[alfred russel]

US jobless rate rises to 14.7% as coronavirus pandemic devastates the economy - 20.5 million jobs lost in April

This'll be the story the world over this Spring. 

Quick back of the napkin calculations:

33 million have filed for unemployment--that is about 20.1% of the workforce.

Beginning unemployment was 3.2%.

So that has 23.4% unemployed at some point in the stretch, so if we are at 14.7% now that means either 8.7% of the workforce has found a new job in this environment or has dropped out.

Honestly, with how fast everything is moving, I wonder how accurate that unemployment number is.

[FunkMonk]

US jobless rate rises to 14.7% as coronavirus pandemic devastates the economy - 20.5 million jobs lost in April

This'll be the story the world over this Spring. 

Quick back of the napkin calculations:

33 million have filed for unemployment--that is about 20.1% of the workforce.

Beginning unemployment was 3.2%.

So that has 23.4% unemployed at some point in the stretch, so if we are at 14.7% now that means either 8.7% of the workforce has found a new job in this environment or has dropped out.

Honestly, with how fast everything is moving, I wonder how accurate that unemployment number is.

Household survey estimates always tend to be smaller than the total weekly UI claims over the month. Different data sources, methodologies, etc etc.

However, BLS said they had significant response rates issues for the survey in March and April, so who knows.

[alfred russel]

Funkmunk, do you know when the surveys are conducted and how they are weighted?

Ie--obviously employment levels are plummeting rapidly. The employment situation at the beginning of April was better than the end. If surveys are conducted through the whole month, an April 1 response is before 16-17 million unemployment claims. Even a week ago is missing over 3 million.

[FunkMonk]

US jobless rate rises to 14.7% as coronavirus pandemic devastates the economy - 20.5 million jobs lost in April

This'll be the story the world over this Spring. 

Quick back of the napkin calculations:

33 million have filed for unemployment--that is about 20.1% of the workforce.

Beginning unemployment was 3.2%.

So that has 23.4% unemployed at some point in the stretch, so if we are at 14.7% now that means either 8.7% of the workforce has found a new job in this environment or has dropped out.

Honestly, with how fast everything is moving, I wonder how accurate that unemployment number is.

There seems to have been some confusion in the data collection as well.

In addition to the increase in the number of unemployed
people, there was also an increase in the number of workers who
were classified as employed but absent from work for the entire
reference week. As in March, special instructions sent to
household survey interviewers called for all employed people
absent from work due to coronavirus-related business closures to be classified as unemployed on temporary layoff. However, not all such workers were so classified in April. As is our usual
practice, no ad hoc actions were taken to reassign survey
responses; the data were accepted as recorded. If the workers
who were recorded as employed but absent from work due to ?other reasons? (over and above the number absent for other reasons in a typical April) had been classified as unemployed on temporary layoff, the overall unemployment rate would have been almost 5 percentage points higher than reported (on a not seasonally adjusted basis). Additional information is available online at www.bls.gov/cps/employment-situation-covid19-faq-april-2020.pdf

[FunkMonk]

Funkmunk, do you know when the surveys are conducted and how they are weighted?

Ie--obviously employment levels are plummeting rapidly. The employment situation at the beginning of April was better than the end. If surveys are conducted through the whole month, an April 1 response is before 16-17 million unemployment claims. Even a week ago is missing over 3 million.

The household survey's reference period is the week of the 12th of the month. They have to be out of work the entire week (and either looking for work or expect to be recalled to their jobs)  to be classified as "unemployed".

[alfred russel]

Thanks FunkMonk! It seems it is hard to catch a falling knife.

[FunkMonk]

Thanks FunkMonk! It seems it is hard to catch a falling knife.

[Admiral Yi]

What does it mean for Gollum to miss his call? Did someone leave him a voicemail?

That bald dude in the CNBC clip I linked upstream said most corrections have a false recovery and then retest the lows.  A double dip if you like.

I bought his story and have been sitting on my Roth money waiting for a retest, but got tired of seeing 2% gains day after day so I legged into Visa.

[DGuller]

I just don't see what others are seeing.  Before the worldwide pandemic we already had a market that was running a little hot.  Now everything is crashing down with a pretty bleak and uncertain near-term outlook, and we're just 15% off the highest of sugar highs?  I don't get it, and I'm not yet letting the daily movements shake my confidence in my judgment.

[Admiral Yi]

Let's say you have a large-ish amount sitting in cash equivalents.  You decide to be buying now.  Do you just plop all of that cash in Vanguard index mutual fund in one go?  Asking for a friend.

When you posted this, the S&P 500 was 27% off its peak.