Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono

Started by MadImmortalMan, December 21, 2009, 04:32:41 AM

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Admiral Yi

#2655
April 03, 2020, 05:06:12 AM
Now is not the time to dick around Squeeze.  Now is the time to go all in.  Every penny you can spare, put in shares right now.

Tamas

#2656
April 03, 2020, 05:22:03 AM
Yi's shameless cheerleading to keep his stocks afloat aside, I do wonder when it's a good time to start buying. The US is nowhere near the peak of the epidemic.

Habbaku

#2657
April 03, 2020, 10:28:34 AM
Now is a good time to start buying. So was yesterday. So is tomorrow.

Squeeze, what funds you want depends on what your goals are. Likely, you're looking at investing for retirement? Considering your age, you have plenty of room to maneuver. What you should be looking for is high diversification (IE, many, many companies) within an all-stock fund that also has low management fees.
The medievals were only too right in taking nolo episcopari as the best reason a man could give to others for making him a bishop. Give me a king whose chief interest in life is stamps, railways, or race-horses; and who has the power to sack his Vizier (or whatever you care to call him) if he does not like the cut of his trousers.

Government is an abstract noun meaning the art and process of governing and it should be an offence to write it with a capital G or so as to refer to people.
-J. R. R. Tolkien

DGuller

#2658
April 04, 2020, 09:00:34 AM
Let's say you have a large-ish amount sitting in cash equivalents.  You decide to be buying now.  Do you just plop all of that cash in Vanguard index mutual fund in one go?  Asking for a friend.

mongers

#2659
April 04, 2020, 09:17:11 AM
Quote from: DGuller on April 04, 2020, 09:00:34 AM
Let's say you have a large-ish amount sitting in cash equivalents.  You decide to be buying now.  Do you just plop all of that cash in Vanguard index mutual fund in one go?  Asking for a friend.

Canned foods, coffee tins and shotgun cartridges.
"We have it in our power to begin the world over again"

Admiral Yi

#2660
April 04, 2020, 09:34:15 AM
Quote from: DGuller on April 04, 2020, 09:00:34 AM
Let's say you have a large-ish amount sitting in cash equivalents.  You decide to be buying now.  Do you just plop all of that cash in Vanguard index mutual fund in one go?  Asking for a friend.

I think you need to assess your own psychological downside risk.

Let's so you put it all on red and the market drops another 10%.  You will feel bad in a certain way.

Or let's say you put a portion in right now (you "leg in") and the market rises 10% before you can deploy the rest.  You feel bad in a different way.

Do the one you expect will make you feel less bad with an adverse result.  Missing out or being a chump.

Seems to me the vast majority of fund managers on CNBC are calling a bottom.  Some are calling it the buying opportunity of a life time.  Early anecdotal economic news out of China is good.

Most people seem to be saying watch out for highly leveraged companies, but if you're a fund-only guy you don't need to worry so much.

I've legged in throughout the correction, buying at 12% down, more at 20%, more at 30%.

alfred russel

#2661
April 04, 2020, 09:56:45 AM
I got screwed by that...like a moron I had been contributing the max to my HSA for years but just leaving it in cash. I never use the HSA, and when this started I realized I had about $30k in it.  :hmm:

I moved it to an index fund, on a friday morning. The market went up 10% that day after the great orange leader spoke at the end of the day. The money was invested at the end of the day. The market opened 12% down the following Monday. $3k gone in a poof of smoke, while the market was really at about the same level it was when I pushed the buy button.
They who can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety.

There's a fine line between salvation and drinking poison in the jungle.

I'm embarrassed. I've been making the mistake of associating with you. It won't happen again. :)
-garbon, February 23, 2014

Habbaku

#2662
April 04, 2020, 10:10:51 AM Last Edit: April 04, 2020, 10:36:43 AM by Habbaku
Quote from: DGuller on April 04, 2020, 09:00:34 AM
Let's say you have a large-ish amount sitting in cash equivalents.  You decide to be buying now.  Do you just plop all of that cash in Vanguard index mutual fund in one go?  Asking for a friend.

The literature I've read on the subject says that dumping it all in at the same time is the correct move in this situation. Legging in/dollar-cost-averaging as Yi mentions is a valid strategy (and also the correct one for consistent contributions going forward), but if you've been sitting on a lump sum...now's the time to dump it in, in my opinion.

For further reading of bigger brains: http://vanguard.com/pdf/ISGDCA.pdf
The medievals were only too right in taking nolo episcopari as the best reason a man could give to others for making him a bishop. Give me a king whose chief interest in life is stamps, railways, or race-horses; and who has the power to sack his Vizier (or whatever you care to call him) if he does not like the cut of his trousers.

Government is an abstract noun meaning the art and process of governing and it should be an offence to write it with a capital G or so as to refer to people.
-J. R. R. Tolkien

Habbaku

#2664
April 04, 2020, 10:30:28 AM
Thanks. Edited--should be fixed now.
The medievals were only too right in taking nolo episcopari as the best reason a man could give to others for making him a bishop. Give me a king whose chief interest in life is stamps, railways, or race-horses; and who has the power to sack his Vizier (or whatever you care to call him) if he does not like the cut of his trousers.

Government is an abstract noun meaning the art and process of governing and it should be an offence to write it with a capital G or so as to refer to people.
-J. R. R. Tolkien

Habbaku

#2666
April 04, 2020, 10:36:54 AM
:hmm: Maybe now?
The medievals were only too right in taking nolo episcopari as the best reason a man could give to others for making him a bishop. Give me a king whose chief interest in life is stamps, railways, or race-horses; and who has the power to sack his Vizier (or whatever you care to call him) if he does not like the cut of his trousers.

Government is an abstract noun meaning the art and process of governing and it should be an offence to write it with a capital G or so as to refer to people.
-J. R. R. Tolkien

Habbaku

#2667
April 04, 2020, 10:38:15 AM
Dropbox link, regardless: https://www.dropbox.com/s/qsly8c8d069l7rh/ISGDCA.pdf?dl=0

Really wish I could just upload a PDF directly here, but Languish's 1990 size restrictions...
The medievals were only too right in taking nolo episcopari as the best reason a man could give to others for making him a bishop. Give me a king whose chief interest in life is stamps, railways, or race-horses; and who has the power to sack his Vizier (or whatever you care to call him) if he does not like the cut of his trousers.

Government is an abstract noun meaning the art and process of governing and it should be an offence to write it with a capital G or so as to refer to people.
-J. R. R. Tolkien

Admiral Yi

#2668
April 04, 2020, 10:56:05 AM
The relevant graph in that article is at the end, relative performance of two approaches in different market conditions.

Unfortunately it just repackages what we already know in a different format.  If the market truly has bottomed, then of course you should go all in.  The problem is you only really know the bottom ex post.

Buying a dip is always a leap of faith.

Tamas

#2669
April 04, 2020, 11:01:03 AM
So via my current Dutch brokers I have pretty decent access to different markets. What should be my US index ETF of choice?
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