Prezdizzle interrupts my TV shows again, or the presidential war speech thread

[Sheilbh]

Sometimes you act as if statements like this are contracts that get litigated in court.  The American public expects him to start drawing down in 18 months and if he doesn't there will be hell to pay.

I think that the reason politicians add so much wiggle room is so that, in 18 months time, they can say 'I said this would have to be in accordance with conditions on the ground...'  I don't think there'll be hell to pay but that's because I'm not convinced that the American public really cares about Afghanistan yet - it could in 18 months time.  I don't think it'll build up a popular movement, nor do I think that the passion of the American people will necessarily matter on the subject.  Though I could be wrong on that.

Even now opposition to Afghanistan is phrased in very much the terms and understanding of an elite not of a mass popular movement (as was the case with Iraq).

All the post-speech "clarification" stressed the fact that it was *just* a start date, i.e. everyone was not going to run for the embassy roof on that date.

This wasn't in the post-speech clarifications, it immediately followed the date.  I suppose it depends how you read what he's saying.  My emphasis would be as follows:

But taken together, these additional American and international troops will allow us to accelerate handing over responsibility to Afghan forces, and allow us to begin the transfer of our forces out of Afghanistan in July of 2011.  Just as we have done in Iraq, we will execute this transition responsibly, taking into account conditions on the ground.

[Admiral Yi]

This wasn't in the post-speech clarifications, it immediately followed the date.  I suppose it depends how you read what he's saying.  My emphasis would be as follows:

But taken together, these additional American and international troops will allow us to accelerate handing over responsibility to Afghan forces, and allow us to begin the transfer of our forces out of Afghanistan in July of 2011.  Just as we have done in Iraq, we will execute this transition responsibly, taking into account conditions on the ground.

Right.  The pace of withdrawal is negotiable, the start date not.

[Sheilbh]

Right.  The pace of withdrawal is negotiable, the start date not.

So this is not an exit strategy, not just spin.

[Admiral Yi]

So this is not an exit strategy, not just spin.

Maybe I'm missing something.  What does exit strategy mean to you?

[jimmy olsen]

So this is not an exit strategy, not just spin.

Maybe I'm missing something.  What does exit strategy mean to you?

An actual plan for the vast majority of soldiers to leave. We know no more about that today than we did before the speech.

[Sheilbh]

So this is not an exit strategy, not just spin.

Maybe I'm missing something.  What does exit strategy mean to you?

Exiting, or a withdrawal strategy.  Not a date on which we'll begin to withdraw (I'm still unclear if the troops being referred to are the surge or the existing commitment) depending on circumstances on the ground.

The Status of Forces Agreement in Iraq seems, more or less, an exit strategy.  By this date US troops will be moved to bases and only provide this specific support and by this date unless requested by the Iraqi government and agreed to by the US US troops will have left Iraq.

Having read a couple of relatively anti-war opinions this is precisely what annoys them is that what he's said is so vague and open to intepretation and reinterpretation that it doesn't actually mean an exit strategy.

[Admiral Yi]

Exiting, or a withdrawal strategy.  Not a date on which we'll begin to withdraw (I'm still unclear if the troops being referred to are the surge or the existing commitment) depending on circumstances on the ground.

The Status of Forces Agreement in Iraq seems, more or less, an exit strategy.  By this date US troops will be moved to bases and only provide this specific support and by this date unless requested by the Iraqi government and agreed to by the US US troops will have left Iraq.

Having read a couple of relatively anti-war opinions this is precisely what annoys them is that what he's said is so vague and open to intepretation and reinterpretation that it doesn't actually mean an exit strategy.

OK, by that definition it is not an exit strategy.

But Obama has locked himself into two options 18 months from now: he can begin the withdrawal of all troops, or he can withdraw some token unit and keep the rest in place.  Now if everything is peachy keen at that time, if the Afghan army has emerged as a terrifyingly efficient tool of counterinsurgency and if the Taliban has been reduced by defection and attrition to 3 grumpy old men cowering in a cave somewhere, this whole discussion is moot.  We will whisk our troops out of the country and amend the Constitution so Obama can be president for life.  If things are not peachy what does he do?  He can whisk the troops out of the country anyway and blame it all on Karzai, or he can withdraw one brigade, tell his generals to keep on fighting with what they have and piss off the part of the American public that thinks Obama has promised to get us out soon.

[Sheilbh]

But Obama has locked himself into two options 18 months from now: he can begin the withdrawal of all troops, or he can withdraw some token unit and keep the rest in place.  Now if everything is peachy keen at that time, if the Afghan army has emerged as a terrifyingly efficient tool of counterinsurgency and if the Taliban has been reduced by defection and attrition to 3 grumpy old men cowering in a cave somewhere, this whole discussion is moot.  We will whisk our troops out of the country and amend the Constitution so Obama can be president for life.  If things are not peachy what does he do?  He can whisk the troops out of the country anyway and blame it all on Karzai, or he can withdraw one brigade, tell his generals to keep on fighting with what they have and piss off the part of the American public that thinks Obama has promised to get us out soon.

Again I'm very unclear about what troops will begin to withdraw.  If it's just the surged troops then this is really no different from the Iraqi surge which would also happen over 18 months - that was in the plan Bush supported - followed by a SOFA treaty.

What I think Obama's speech did about this date was to leave enough room for him to point back to it in 18 months and say 'as I said we can withdraw now/taking into consideration the situation on the ground our withdrawal will be slow/according to our new agreement with the Afghan government we can...'

[Admiral Yi]

What I think Obama's speech did about this date was to leave enough room for him to point back to it in 18 months and say 'as I said we can withdraw now/taking into consideration the situation on the ground our withdrawal will be slow/according to our new agreement with the Afghan government we can...'

I've already agreed that the pace of withdrawal is negotiable.