The Israel-Iran War ?

[Armyknife]

How likely is this to take place in the short to near term ?

What might be the likely extent of such conflict ?

What should it be called ? 




I think such a conflict is a serious possibility, maybe even probable. Because I think it would politically suit each country's leadership; it allow the Iranian leadership to distract the population away from the domestic political crisis, gives them the cover/excuse to crush all opposition and it could further strengthen its leading position in non-A.Q. radical islam.  Not to say there won't be significant downsides to a possibly unrestricted conflict. 

For Likud's Netanyahu it offers the chance to win/stage a high profile victory over the emerging strongman of 'Middle Eastern' countries, largely erasing the embarassment of the Lebanon war. At a stroke, the Obama administration has to fall in beside Israel and back it to hilt, talk about restraining Israeli settlement activity and establishing a permanent peace with the Palestinians gets push aside., if not forgotten about depending on how unsympathetic/terroristic of any palestinian reaction, be that Hamas, small terrorist groups or from an all-out conflict with Hizballah. 

I'd guess a significant factor in the determined, time-tabled response of the USA-UK-France to the 2nd Iranian nuclear program might be a clearly stated Israeli intention to attack Irans nuclear/missile facilities fairly soon, unless there is a definite negotiated solution to the problem.

I think it should be called the the Israel-Iran war, as we've already had the Iran-Iraq war making Iran-Israel too similar sounding.  Maybe if the conflict is limited it could be named after the major characteristic of the fighting, like the 'tanker war' or 'the the war of the cities' which we've already seen with regard to Iran.

[Valmy]

I do not think it would really suit either country's political leadership because the disastrous consequences a defeat would create.  Israel would be putting its existance at stake, Iran's governing party would be risking everything.  I think both parties will avoid an actual war and things will continue business as usual.

[Admiral Yi]

Effectively zero.

[MadImmortalMan]

Iran's governing party would be risking everything.

They may soon have nothing left to lose.

[DGuller]

How would the war even work?  Israel sends some jet fighters far away, and in return Iran sends some nuclear missiles far away?

[Viking]

That depends..

If Israel just strikes Natanz and other Nuclear sites gets away clean then Iran can choose to either respond or not. How?

1) Hizbullah. Is Hizbullah going to be willing (political price within Lebanon etc.) to fight for Iran against Israel with Lebanon as a casualty?

2) Iraq. Is Iran willing to provoke a fight against the US as a response to an Israeli strike?

3) Oil. Is Iran willing to use it as a weapon like the Arabs did in 1973, can they?

4) War of the Cities. If the Iranians start lobbing ballistic missiles on Israel. How far are they willing to go before Netanyahu cries WMD and uses his own WMD. Israel is much more capable of destroying economic infrastructure than Iran.

There are alot of what-if's here.

But then again, how to declare victory? Well if Israel bombs Natanz et.al. damaging the facilities and killing some technical staff and gets a cease fire afterwards they can declare victory. But then again Iran can declare victory ala Saddam and declare survival to be victory.

[Viking]

How would the war even work?  Israel sends some jet fighters far away, and in return Iran sends some nuclear missiles far away?

Iran doesn't have the bomb yet and Iran sure as hell don't have miniaturized warheads. Even if Iran has an untested device the only delivery mechanism they can use is Container Ship.

[The Minsky Moment]

How likely is this to take place in the short to near term ?

What might be the likely extent of such conflict ?

What should it be called ? 

1) 5%
2) Israelis bomb a couple installations. Iranians retaliate (or attempt to) with conventional missiles and Hezbollah proxy attacks.
3) The Crock of Shi'ite War

[Viking]

How likely is this to take place in the short to near term ?

What might be the likely extent of such conflict ?

What should it be called ? 

1) 5%
2) Israelis bomb a couple installations. Iranians retaliate (or attempt to) with conventional missiles and Hezbollah proxy attacks.
3) The Crock of Shi'ite War

3) Heeb' of Shi'ite War?

[Zanza]

How would the war even work?  Israel sends some jet fighters far away, and in return Iran sends some nuclear missiles far away?

For Israel to send fighters across Iraq, they would at least need the tacit approval of the US. I don't see that happening. Iran may have conventional missles that can reach Israel, but no nuclear warheads to fit on a missle yet. So they could shoot missles at each other I guess. But that wouldn't make any side able to actually win, so I guess both sides aren't interested in war.

[Viking]

How would the war even work?  Israel sends some jet fighters far away, and in return Iran sends some nuclear missiles far away?

For Israel to send fighters across Iraq, they would at least need the tacit approval of the US. I don't see that happening. Iran may have conventional missles that can reach Israel, but no nuclear warheads to fit on a missle yet. So they could shoot missles at each other I guess. But that wouldn't make any side able to actually win, so I guess both sides aren't interested in war.

Saudi has been suggested as a rout.

[The Brain]

How would the war even work?  Israel sends some jet fighters far away, and in return Iran sends some nuclear missiles far away?

For Israel to send fighters across Iraq, they would at least need the tacit approval of the US. I don't see that happening. Iran may have conventional missles that can reach Israel, but no nuclear warheads to fit on a missle yet. So they could shoot missles at each other I guess. But that wouldn't make any side able to actually win, so I guess both sides aren't interested in war.

Saudi has been suggested as a rout.

Also France, Denmark etc.

[Agelastus]

Since neither country's armies can reach each other (since neither side has any significant sealift capacity that I am aware of) then all they can do is conduct air-raids and shoot missiles at each other. I don't think many generals would advise war in such a case.

If Israel attacks the Iranian nuclear program, Iran will not declare war (due to the above and also due to the Americans being "next door" on two borders), and Israel has never really seen the need to declare war if all they are doing is dropping a few bombs.

So, chance of war = nil.

Chance of increased terrorism due to Iranian funding = 100%.

[CountDeMoney]

Mongers is second only to Timmay in retarda-threads.

[HVC]

Mongers is second only to Timmay in retarda-threads.

I don't know, i think mongers is worst. remember the "what tree are you" thread?