NFL Week 3 Thread

[Valmy]

Man, whatever happened to the 'Skins? We didn't use to have to dread playing bottom ranked teams for fear of losing and humiliating ourselves. We coulda been something, we coulda been a contender...

What happened?  Losing to San Francisco, Cincinatti, and St. Louis last year where winning any of those games would have gotten the Skins into the playoffs.

[Barrister]

Just for fun, at to challenge Neil, I'll make some picks

                       Favorite            Spread          Underdog

9/27 1:00 ET   At NY Jets         -2.5              Tennessee       Tennesse and the point

9/27 1:00 ET   At Houston       -4                 Jacksonville      Houston

9/27 1:00 ET   At Philadelphia -8.5              Kansas City      Philly

9/27 1:00 ET   At Baltimore    -13.5             Cleveland          Damn... Bawlmer

9/27 1:00 ET   NY Giants         -6.5              At Tampa Bay    G-men

9/27 1:00 ET   Washington     -6.5              At Detroit           Detroit and the points

9/27 1:00 ET   Green Bay        -6.5              At St. Louis        Green Bay

9/27 1:00 ET  At Minnesota     -7                 San Francisco     SF and the points (tho Vikes will win)

9/27 1:00 ET  At New England -4                Atlanta               Atlanta

9/27 4:05 ET  Chicago           -2.5               At Seattle            Seattle

9/27 4:05 ET  New Orleans    -6                 At Buffalo           New Orleans

9/27 4:15 ET  At San Diego    -5.5              Miami                  San Diego

9/27 4:15 ET  Pittsburgh        -4                 At Cincinnati        Pittsburgh

9/27 4:15 ET  Denver            -1.5               At Oakland          Denver

9/27 8:20 ET  At Arizona        -2.5              Indianapolis          Indy

Monday Night Football Point Spread
   
9/28 8:35 ET  At Dallas          -8.5               Carolina            Carolina

Picks are for entertainment purposes only.  Barrister does not endorse gambling on football.

[Admiral Yi]

Wish I knew a bookie so I could take Indy and 2.5.  I think Miami is going to cover.

[sbr]

Wish I knew a bookie so I could take Indy and 2.5.  I think Miami is going to cover.

  You mean Arizona or are you talking about two different games?

[sbr]

The game of the week for me.  The first real test for the Vike's and a chance for the Niners to prove they belong in the discussion of play-off caliber teams.

[Admiral Yi]

  You mean Arizona or are you talking about two different games?

Two different games.

[Barrister]

Wish I knew a bookie so I could take Indy and 2.5.  I think Miami is going to cover.

I know Arizona is tough at home, but they're giving Indy two and a half points?  I'd take those odds any day.

Miami?  San Diego is again a west coast team that plays tough at home, but travels poorly.  I doubt that Miami can make it interesting.

I thought the term "cover" meant the favoured team winning by enough to cover the spread?  What does it mean when dealing with the underdog?

[sbr]

  You mean Arizona or are you talking about two different games?

Two different games.

I agree with the Indy game, unfortunately; but I think Miami is in for another rough one.  They are on a short week and have to fly cross country for the game, I think the Chargers cover that one.

[Admiral Yi]

I thought the term "cover" meant the favoured team winning by enough to cover the spread?  What does it mean when dealing with the underdog?

Lose by less than the spread.  If Miami loses by 5 or less, or wins, they cover.

[derspiess]

I thought the term "cover" meant the favoured team winning by enough to cover the spread?  What does it mean when dealing with the underdog?

It means they were close enough to cover the spread.  "Cover" doesn't directly have anything to do with winning or losing-- it just means the team outperformed whatever the spread predicted they'd do.

[Admiral Yi]

I agree with the Indy game, unfortunately; but I think Miami is in for another rough one.  They are on a short week and have to fly cross country for the game, I think the Chargers cover that one.

I haven't seen San Diego play yet, so I'm flying a little blind, but Miami showed they're an excellent posession team against Indy.  The wildcat is bullshit and eventually defenses will stop it, but right now they're reeling off 6-8 yards a play.  And Pennigton can throw 10 yard slants and and crossing patterns.

[CountDeMoney]

I haven't seen San Diego play yet, so I'm flying a little blind

Here's all you need to know about the Bolts this season--
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ldY2pInMyR4

[Ed Anger]

I haven't seen San Diego play yet, so I'm flying a little blind

Here's all you need to know about the Bolts this season--
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ldY2pInMyR4

Lolz.

[Neil]

Week 1:  10-6
Week 2:  11-5 (8-8 vs. the spread)

Sunday:
Browns (-13.5) @ Ravens - OK, there are, in the history of the league, maybe a handful of players who can change a team's season with a signature hit.  Out of them, only Ray Lewis is still around, and he changed the Ravens defence's fate last week.  Their secondary is going to shape up.  Even if they don't, Brady Quinn doesn't have the tools to exploit it.  Moreover, the Browns run D is terrible, whereas the Ravens power running is awesome.  The Browns will not cover.

Redskins @ Lions (-6.5) - I know that the Redskin fans are going emo about their chances, and the Redskins are a distinctly mediocre team.  Let's not go crazy here though.  The Lions are weak, and aren't doing anything well.  They make teams that play them look better than they are.  The Redskins skilled D-line should overpower the weak Lions offence.  The Lions will not cover either.

Jaguars (-4) @ Texans - So, the Texans D is doing terribly, which is odd, given their talent.  I think part of their problem is that they had a terrible start against a newly physical Jets team, and they just got outmuscled by the powerful, physical Titans.  The Jaguars are less than either of those teams, and have really fallen apart from their once-mighty days in the last couple of years where they challenged the Colts.  The Jags will not cover.

Falcons (-4) @ Patriots - The Patriots are suspect.  Perhaps Tom Brady's knee didn't rehab properly because he was on his knees sucking dicks.  Their defence has also been less than they have been in years.  The Falcons, on the other hand, are surging.  Ryan is one of the top 5 QBs in the league right now, and their D is workmanlike.  They will humble the fallen Patriots.  Honestly, if it wasn't for their performance in 2007, nobody would be thinking of Patriots as a top 10 team.

Packers @ Rams (-6.5) - This one is just easy to pick.  The Rams don't have the firepower or the defence to win this one.  You know, the Packers have one bad game against the Bengals, and all of the sudden all those optimistic predictions from the beginning of the season have disintegrated.  The Packers will win this one.  The Rams will not cover.

Giants @ Buccaneers (-6.5) - The Giants put up, what, 30-something on the Cowboys, and they're only giving 6.5 to the Bucs?  Does not compute.  Sure, the Giants are nicked up, but so are the Bucs.  Still, the Giants have much stronger fundamentals.  The Bucs will not cover.

Titans (-2.5) @ Jets - I like the Titans in this one.  The Jets have feasted against weak opposition, while the Titans have starved against one of the most powerful teams in the league and one of their most dangerous division rivals.  Both defences are stout, but I think that Kerry Collins has the edge on Sanchez.  The Jets will also have to contend with the formidable rushing attack of Chris Johnson.

Chiefs (-8.5) @ Eagles - You know, I think the Chiefs might cover in this one.  With no McNabb, I don't trust Kevin Kolb, I don't think that Vick is ready and I don't think that anybody in the Eagles organization is smart enough to play Garcia.  Even when they won in Week 1, the Eagles didn't quite seem like themselves, and without McNabb they're vulnerable.  The Chiefs have a solid rushing attack and a serviceable passing attack.  They won't win, but they'll cover.

49ers (-7) @ Vikings - This pick was one of two that gave me the most trouble.  Now, here's my upset pick:  I like the 49ers.  Their suffocating run D should hurt the ability of the Vikings to run the ball.  When burden of the game comes to Brett Favre, expect some gunslings to be thrown.  Singletary's dicipline will ensure that San Francisco will make fewer mistakes, and win the game.

Saints @ Bills (-6) - The Saints have too much firepower to fall to the Bills.  Sure, their D is suspect, but the Bills offence can't score at will like the Saints can.  In the case of the Saints, it seems that the best defence is a good offence.  The Bills aren't any better than the Kolb Eagles, and the Saints disposed of them with ease.  I don't think the Bills will cover.  TO might go crazy after the game.

Bears @ Seahawks (-2.5) - The Seahawks without Hasselbeck are helpless, whereas the Bears seem to have overcome their injuries.  If Hasselbeck doesn't come back quickly, the Seahawks will give the Rams a run for their money in the bitch division.  The Seahawks will not cover.

Steelers @ Bengals (-4) - Come on man.  Everybody is high on the Bengals with their dominating sackfest against the Packers, and everybody is ragging the Steelers for their line play and their troubles winning without Polamalu.  Still, these are the Steelers in a division game, against the Bengals.  Still, I think the Bengals will be able to put up some points and keep it from being a rout.  I'm going to go out on limb and say that the Steelers' line problems will allow the Bengals to cover.  I know I'm crazy, picking the Bengals for anything other than epic failure, but that's just how I feel on this one.  Of course, this will be the week that Carson Palmer will go back down the tubes.

Broncos @ Raiders (-1.5) - JaMarcus Russell will conspire to allow the Broncos to win.  I like the Raiders run game and their D, but their passing game will prevent them from getting very far.  The Broncos D is going to crush Russell.  The Raiders will not cover.

Dolphins (-5.5) @ Chargers - The Chargers are vulnerable to the Dolphins running game.  On the other hand, the Dolphins have shown that they're vulnerable to the big play, and the offence scored surprisingly little, given how much they had the ball against the Colts.  I think the Dolphins can take advantage of the injuries that plague the Chargers and pull off the upset.  Hopefully, somebody punches that punk Rivers in the mouth.

Colts (-2.5) @ Cardinals - I like the Cardinals at home here.  The Colts can move the ball, but so can the Cardinals.  Also, the Cardinals seem to get a bigger bump from the home field than  most teams.  This was the other game that I felt was difficult to pick, and I'm still conflicted about it.  Ultimately, I think the depleted Colts secondary will allow the Cardinals to make plays, while the Cardinals' surprisingly respectable D will allow them to hold the Colts to field goals.  If I have to guess, I would say that a Manning comeback will fall just short and the Cardinals will win, but the Colts will cover.

Monday:
Panthers (-8.5) @ Cowboys - The Cowboys can't get humiliated at home for ever, but the Panthers are getting better every week.  The Panthers will cover, but the Cowboys will win.

[sbr]

Tennessee @ NY Jets (-2.5) - I can't decide which is more unlikely, the Titans going 0-3 or the Jets losing this game.  I take the Jets and give the points.

Jacksonville @ Houston (-4) - Teh Texans found their passing game last week, that shoudl help them run the ball on the not-as-formidable-as-before Jaguars.  I take the Texans and give the 4.

Kansas City @ Philadelphia (-8.5) - The Chiefs shouldn't be able to challenge the Eagles, even without McNabb.  That seems like a big spread to me with Kolb as the starting QB though.  The Eagles win, but in a close one.

Cleveland @ Baltimore (-13.5) - It is still early but this is very clearly a mis-match.  I hate double digit point spread but this one is deserved.  The Ravens in an easy one.

NY Giants (-6.5) @ Tampa Bay - 6.5 points is ridiculous for a road team: it might not be enough.  The Giants are better than people think and the Buc's might be worse than people think.  Eli and the defense will do just enough to cover this one.

Washington (-6.5) @ Detroit - I was thinking the Lions might win this one a few days ago but then everyone, including the national media started saying the same thing.  The Redskins are the better team, though not by a whole lot, and the Lion's best chance was for the 'Skins to overlook them, that ain't happening now.  I don't think the 'Skins cover though, especially on the road.

Green Bay (-6.5) @ St. Louis - Before the season started I said the Rams would be the Most Improved Team this year.  I was way off, they are still horrible.  This is an easy one for the Pack.

San Fransisco @ Minnesota ( -7) -  This is the game of the week, a chance for both teams to prove themselves.  I think Patrick Willis and the rest of the Niners D will be up to the test.  The Vike's will win, but in a very close game.

Atlanta @ New England (-4) - Potentially the best game of the week.  The Pats defense is very lacking and the offense hasn't clicked outside of the 4th quarter of the first game.  The Falcons have met every challenge they have seen.  I still can't bet against the Pats at home yet.  I assume Brady will find a way to get one touchdown more than the Falcons will.

Chicago (-4.5) @Seattle - Hasselebeck won't play and Seneca Wallace just isn't very good while Cutler looked very good against the Steelers.  The Bears win this one straight up.

New Orleans (-6) @ Buffalo  -  The Saints' offense is playing at a historic pace, the Bills are not.  Drew Brees has to comeback to earth but I can't see it being this week.  The Saints cover, by a hair.

Miami @ San Diego (-5.5) - After a short week, with the Monday night game, and a cross country flight I just don't see the Dolphins competing with the Bolts.  This is one of the easier games for me to pick.

Pittsburgh (-4) @Cincinnati - This is another game where the "experts" are picking the underdog.  The Bengals have been playing a little better than expected, but not well enough to win, or prevent the Steelers from covering.

Denver (-1.5) @ Oakland - This is just horrid.  I think it more likely that LaMarcus Russell finds a ways to lose it than the Broncos find a way to win it.

Indianapolis @ Arizona (-2.5) - As a Cards fan I just can bring myself to believe they are actually a good team.     I think the Colts will find a way to win and the Cards will help them out.

Carolina @ Dallas (-8.5) - Who is worse Delhomme or Romo?  I think the Dallas defense will finally show up and get their first sack and their first turnover this game, it won't be enough to cover the 8.5.