Russian-Belarussian Wargames - "West 2009"

[Josquius]

I'm unsure about the Polish military but certainly if you swap the Polish military for the French, German or British one and it'd be a close fight with the advantage likely being against the Russians.

As long as there are no nukes involved, it wouldn't be close. The Western European countries are vastly more productive, have more manpower, would rule the seas etc.

Nah, the Russian army is BIG. They've thousands of tanks- not all in great condition but a few thousand of them are. Their air force is similiarly huge. Navies wouldn't really come into play in a theoretical only Poland defence.

[Viking]

Nah, the Russian army is BIG. They've thousands of tanks- not all in great condition but a few thousand of them are. It'd be hard but eventually the western air force would win out.

meh, it's easier to blow up fuel trucks than tanks.

[Berkut]

No number of tanks will do you any good when you cannot get them supplies or fuel.

[Barrister]

No number of tanks will do you any good when you cannot get them supplies or fuel.

Russia is certainly an oil exporter though.  I don't know their refining capacity.

And don't forget that the Russians would immiately turn off the gas pipes to western europe in the event of hostilities.

[I Killed Kenny]

No number of tanks will do you any good when you cannot get them supplies or fuel.

Russia is certainly an oil exporter though.  I don't know their refining capacity.

And don't forget that the Russians would immiately turn off the gas pipes to western europe in the event of hostilities.

In teory we would have 90 days of Gas. That means we would need 90 days to break the Russians

[Josquius]

No number of tanks will do you any good when you cannot get them supplies or fuel.

And how can't they do that?
Their airforce is nothing to sniff at either, you can't fly around with impunity blowing up their lorries.

[KRonn]

Nah, the Russian army is BIG. They've thousands of tanks- not all in great condition but a few thousand of them are. Their air force is similiarly huge. Navies wouldn't really come into play in a theoretical only Poland defence.

Hah! I'll bet that the armies of Western Europe could be in Moscow before the winter!!   

[Ed Anger]

No American blood for European's oil.

[Berkut]

No number of tanks will do you any good when you cannot get them supplies or fuel.

And how can't they do that?
Their airforce is nothing to sniff at either, you can't fly around with impunity blowing up their lorries.

Not with impunity, but with enough freedom that the Western superiority in precision standoff weapons would make moving around rather difficult.

Russia today would be crushed by Germany or France in a defensive war.

[Berkut]

No number of tanks will do you any good when you cannot get them supplies or fuel.

Russia is certainly an oil exporter though.  I don't know their refining capacity.

All the gas in the world does them no good unless they can get it to the front lines.

And don't forget that the Russians would immiately turn off the gas pipes to western europe in the event of hostilities.

So? They have lots of other sources for fuel in a wartime situation.

[Viking]

No number of tanks will do you any good when you cannot get them supplies or fuel.

Russia is certainly an oil exporter though.  I don't know their refining capacity.

And don't forget that the Russians would immiately turn off the gas pipes to western europe in the event of hostilities.

In teory we would have 90 days of Gas. That means we would need 90 days to break the Russians

No, Norway has 90 days to jack up the price of north sea natural gas, Sweden has 90 days to make 150 million axeheads to export to central europe for chopping wood, Finland has 90 days to start a peat bog export business and Denmark has 90 days to arrange for transport.

[Barrister]

So? They have lots of other sources for fuel in a wartime situation.

Not really, and none that could be implemented in 90 days.

Realistically, they'd have 90 days to introduce strict rationing of natural gas.

[Berkut]

So? They have lots of other sources for fuel in a wartime situation.

Not really, and none that could be implemented in 90 days.

Realistically, they'd have 90 days to introduce strict rationing of natural gas.

90 days in winter or in summer?

And I disagree - in a wartime situation, I think you would be rather surprised on both how long you can make the reserves last (like you said, rationing would start immediately), and how fast you can come up with alternatives when needed.

And natural gas is hardly the only kind of fuel out there. It might be what they predominately use now because it is cheap, but there are other alternatives.

I bet that 90 day supply estimate is based on peak consumer consumption.

[Josquius]

Not with impunity, but with enough freedom that the Western superiority in precision standoff weapons would make moving around rather difficult.

Russia today would be crushed by Germany or France in a defensive war.

Western superiority- yeah, sure. NATO vs. Russia its just a question of how much it'll cost and how many will die. NATO can win easily. Perhaps it could even put up a good fight without troops on the ground.
But a single western European nation? I don't think we have such great stocks of cruise missiles.
Which of course calls for a super ninja SAS-wankathon.

I do think that Germany, France or Britain would win but it would be very hard going.

[Barrister]

90 days in winter or in summer?

And I disagree - in a wartime situation, I think you would be rather surprised on both how long you can make the reserves last (like you said, rationing would start immediately), and how fast you can come up with alternatives when needed.

And natural gas is hardly the only kind of fuel out there. It might be what they predominately use now because it is cheap, but there are other alternatives.

I bet that 90 day supply estimate is based on peak consumer consumption.

So you're not actually disagreeing with me then.  It's not so much a factor of finding alternate supplies, but of rationing supplies so they can last much longer.

And I don't know about the 90 days.  I was taking that solely from IKK's and Viking's comments.