Barack Obama has rescued America from Economic Disaster

Started by Savonarola, August 07, 2009, 12:55:37 PM

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Valmy

Quote from: Hansmeister on August 07, 2009, 03:18:00 PM
Unemployment only "fell" because half a million people have quit looking for a job altogether.  The overall labor market shrank by 800,000 last month.  If we factor for that the unemployment rate actually increased to 9.9 percent.

Hey now suspect math was good enough to declare we had a federal surplus 10 years ago so why not do it again with unemployment stats?
Quote"This is a Russian warship. I propose you lay down arms and surrender to avoid bloodshed & unnecessary victims. Otherwise, you'll be bombed."

Zmiinyi defenders: "Russian warship, go fuck yourself."

alfred russel

Quote from: ulmont on August 07, 2009, 03:56:56 PM
Quote from: Caliga on August 07, 2009, 03:22:05 PM
In any event, the federal unemployment figure is a totally bullshit, meaningless statistic (even moreso than most government stats).

Look at the seasonally adjusted U-5 or U-6 numbers instead of the baseline U-3.

Which also declined.
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Josquius

QuoteUnemployment only "fell" because half a million people have quit looking for a job altogether.  The overall labor market shrank by 800,000 last month.  If we factor for that the unemployment rate actually increased to 9.9 percent.
Why would they do that? :s
If you're unemployed and don't want to be employed you should at least stay on the books to get your unemployment benefits...


Quote from: Faeelin on August 07, 2009, 12:59:20 PM
The recession is imploding!
:lol:
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Admiral Yi

Quote from: Tyr on August 07, 2009, 04:10:31 PM
Why would they do that? :s
If you're unemployed and don't want to be employed you should at least stay on the books to get your unemployment benefits...
Not everyone who is unemployed qualifies for unemployment benefits.

MadImmortalMan

"Stability is destabilizing." --Hyman Minsky

"Complacency can be a self-denying prophecy."
"We have nothing to fear but lack of fear itself." --Larry Summers

Josquius

Quote from: Admiral Yi on August 07, 2009, 04:14:32 PM
Quote from: Tyr on August 07, 2009, 04:10:31 PM
Why would they do that? :s
If you're unemployed and don't want to be employed you should at least stay on the books to get your unemployment benefits...
Not everyone who is unemployed qualifies for unemployment benefits.
Werid, but still. Why bother to unregister?
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Admiral Yi

Quote from: Tyr on August 07, 2009, 04:43:43 PM
Werid, but still. Why bother to unregister?
In the US you file a claim for unemployment insurance and if you meet the qualifications you get some money.  If those people were deemed not to qualify, or if their eligibility had run out (you can only claim for a certain amount of time), or if they had never claimed in the first place because they knew they didn't qualify then there's not a lot of point in continuing to file a claim.

MadImmortalMan

Quote from: Admiral Yi on August 07, 2009, 04:49:41 PM
Quote from: Tyr on August 07, 2009, 04:43:43 PM
Werid, but still. Why bother to unregister?
In the US you file a claim for unemployment insurance and if you meet the qualifications you get some money.  If those people were deemed not to qualify, or if their eligibility had run out (you can only claim for a certain amount of time), or if they had never claimed in the first place because they knew they didn't qualify then there's not a lot of point in continuing to file a claim.

Or if they never claimed because they didn't want to file for benefits.
"Stability is destabilizing." --Hyman Minsky

"Complacency can be a self-denying prophecy."
"We have nothing to fear but lack of fear itself." --Larry Summers

Strix

Wow! What a shocker! Who would have thought that after six months the numbers would look so different.

Well, I did for one, the usual term of collecting unemployment before eligibility runs out is six months than you're off the books er I mean no longer unemployed according to government statistics.

"I always cheer up immensely if an attack is particularly wounding because I think, well, if they attack one personally, it means they have not a single political argument left." - Margaret Thatcher

Admiral Yi


MadImmortalMan

"Stability is destabilizing." --Hyman Minsky

"Complacency can be a self-denying prophecy."
"We have nothing to fear but lack of fear itself." --Larry Summers

jimmy olsen

Quote from: Valmy on August 07, 2009, 04:00:48 PM
Quote from: Hansmeister on August 07, 2009, 03:18:00 PM
Unemployment only "fell" because half a million people have quit looking for a job altogether.  The overall labor market shrank by 800,000 last month.  If we factor for that the unemployment rate actually increased to 9.9 percent.

Hey now suspect math was good enough to declare we had a federal surplus 10 years ago so why not do it again with unemployment stats?
We didn't have a surplus in the 90s?  :huh:
It is far better for the truth to tear my flesh to pieces, then for my soul to wander through darkness in eternal damnation.

Jet: So what kind of woman is she? What's Julia like?
Faye: Ordinary. The kind of beautiful, dangerous ordinary that you just can't leave alone.
Jet: I see.
Faye: Like an angel from the underworld. Or a devil from Paradise.
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ulmont

Quote from: alfred russel on August 07, 2009, 04:07:38 PM
Quote from: ulmont on August 07, 2009, 03:56:56 PM
Quote from: Caliga on August 07, 2009, 03:22:05 PM
In any event, the federal unemployment figure is a totally bullshit, meaningless statistic (even moreso than most government stats).

Look at the seasonally adjusted U-5 or U-6 numbers instead of the baseline U-3.

Which also declined.

Yes.  By about the margin of error on the household surveys they derive that figure from.

Valmy

Quote from: jimmy olsen on August 07, 2009, 05:09:20 PM
We didn't have a surplus in the 90s?  :huh:

My understanding is the surplus appeared when they took Social Security off the books.  So it was just an accounting trick.
Quote"This is a Russian warship. I propose you lay down arms and surrender to avoid bloodshed & unnecessary victims. Otherwise, you'll be bombed."

Zmiinyi defenders: "Russian warship, go fuck yourself."

DontSayBanana

Quote from: Sheilbh on August 07, 2009, 02:53:56 PM
I thought unemployment was a lagging indicator ?

Yes and no. The unemployment rate's partially calculated from continuing claims, which is people who are filing for the previous week or even two weeks.
Experience bij!