US - Greenland Crisis Thread

[Duque de Bragança]

Yeah for sure. A very big question from my point of view is to what degree different European countries will rally to support Denmark once it goes beyond signing letters. You mention the UK, but I don't know how much appetite they have for taking practical action against the US, no matter how miniscule.

The thing from my perspective is that rolling over meekly on Greenland makes it very clear to everyone that Europe is powerless and ripe for division into "spheres" as per Putin-Trumpist perspectives. The real trick IMO - even if accepting the loss of Greenland as inevitable if Trump really pushes for it - is to impose a high enough price and accelerate the growth of European strength to the degree it makes repeats less likely. Otherwise we are, IMO, looking at the kick-off of a European "century of humiliation".

I agree with all you said. Helping Ukraine is key to both aspects, impose a high price and accelerate or rather resurrect European strength, in some cases. Ukraine surviving the Putin onslaught gives Europe more – critical – time, be it versus Putin and/or an Agent Orange with delusions of grandeur.

Still, Venezuela should keep him busy for a while. I doubt the situation there will be stabilised as in puppet régime in 20 days.

[Jacob]

Yeah. How likely is it that Canada will resist a US invasion?

There would absolutely be resistance.

How effective and long-lasting would depend very much on the specifics of the invasion scenario (is the US invited in by a Conservative government or an Albertan "independence" movement for example)  and how it was carried out (how much killing and destruction happens), I think.

Certainly, there's a very fundamental part of Canadian character that defines itself as being "not American"; and there's been enough of a national discourse on the topic with folks fantasizing about guerilla warfare - both urban in the bush, combined with actions inside the US - that I think many Canadians like to imagine we'd make the US regret invading. I know people who've joined the reserves specifically because they want to be more ready in case the US invades.

Now, how likely is that to translate in to actual resistance if push came to shove? And how likely is the Canadian military to continue fighting like Ukrainians when Russia first rolled in, vs surrendering to save lives? I know what I and many other Canadians would like to think, but I don't think Canada's character has been tested in this way recently enough to be any actual guide. So, we'll see (or rather, we'll hopefully never find out).

And certainly, Canada would have its fair share of Quislings also, no doubt about it.

[The Brain]

FWIW former Swedish PM and Foreign Minister Carl Bildt has said that it's likely that the US "will use brute force against Denmark within the coming six months".

[Tonitrus]

With nothing but respect for our American posters, based on how they rally around the flag when any one of us non-Americans dare critising it, I think if European troops kill attacking American ones, US public opinion will rally against Europeans and NATO, NOT against Trump.

I think you are wrong.

[Duque de Bragança]

After Venezuela, there is still Cuba to deal with before claiming total control of the US American hemisphere.
Marco Rubio has a vested interest in it. 

[crazy canuck]

FWIW former Swedish PM and Foreign Minister Carl Bildt has said that it's likely that the US "will use brute force against Denmark within the coming six months".

Please someone wake me up from this nightmare

[Jacob]

Our military would be quickly overrun, so that phase lasts no more than a couple of days. The more likely resistance is units retreating into the vastness of the Canadian interior and waging guerrilla warfare. 

Yeah. I think the key part of any potential Canadian military defence is the degree to which they manage create heroic narratives like the Ukrainian defenders of Zmiinyi Island to inspire resistance; and the degree of excess force the US might use to turn the mood more decisively against the occupation.

But yeah, it's incredibly unlikely that Canada could hold off a US invasion unless there was serious internal disarray inside the US military for whatever reason. The name of the game for any Canadian resistance to the US is assymmetrical warfare.

[HVC]

With nothing but respect for our American posters, based on how they rally around the flag when any one of us non-Americans dare critising it, I think if European troops kill attacking American ones, US public opinion will rally against Europeans and NATO, NOT against Trump.

I think you are wrong.

What proportion of the GOP would turn against trump, you think? Would any MAGA types do it? After all commie Europeans are killing brave US soldier trying to liberate the poor Greenlanders.

Although, for my part, I still don't think he'd go after Greenland. But you know, worse timeline and all that. I actually think he's more likely to raid Mexico. He has a much easier excuse with the whole war on drugs thing.

[Valmy]

What proportion of the GOP would turn against trump, you think? Would any MAGA types do it? After all commie Europeans are killing brave US soldier trying to liberate the poor Greenlanders.

The government is not even bothering to build that narrative.

[Tonitrus]

With nothing but respect for our American posters, based on how they rally around the flag when any one of us non-Americans dare critising it, I think if European troops kill attacking American ones, US public opinion will rally against Europeans and NATO, NOT against Trump.

I think you are wrong.

What proportion of the GOP would turn against trump, you think? Would any MAGA types do it? After all commie Europeans are killing brave US soldier trying to liberate the poor Greenlanders.

Although, for my part, I still don't think he'd go after Greenland. But you know, worse timeline and all that. I actually think he's more likely to raid Mexico. He has a much easier excuse with the whole war on drugs thing.

To clarify, I think the bolded is wrong.

I won't speak for US public opinion...but for MAGA-types, I don't think much of them.

[HVC]

What logistics do we have in the wilderness to supply a Canadian official resistance ? It's not like Ukraine where we'd have a relatively safe population zone. All ours are at the border. I can see a WW2 like popular resistance movement. But with modern tracking and technology I don't know how long they'd last as a  effective covert resistance

[Jacob]

I think you are wrong.

I hope you are right, and that we never find out.

However, Carl Bildt (former PM of Sweden) does not make me optimistic on this count.

[HVC]

What proportion of the GOP would turn against trump, you think? Would any MAGA types do it? After all commie Europeans are killing brave US soldier trying to liberate the poor Greenlanders.

The government is not even bothering to build that narrative.

I think they could easily if any sentiment shifts in the US to an invasion.

[Jacob]

What logistics do we have in the wilderness to supply a Canadian official resistance ? It's not like Ukraine where we'd have a relatively safe population zone. All ours are at the border. I can see a WW2 like popular resistance movement. But with modern tracking and technology I don't know how long they'd last as a  effective covert resistance

It can't be that hard to smuggle in a bunch of Chinese drones and European mortar rounds.

But yeah, I think the resistance would have to be decentralized and dissipated. Regular folks living their regular lives, occasionally carrying out attacks against US personnel and infrastructure (and traitors).

More IRA than Viet Cong.

[Tonitrus]

The  amount of National Guard that would need to be called up to occupy Canada would be nuts. I don't think we could even do it.  The best defense would be massive/passive resistance...we could never sustain overcoming it.

(even speculating on this is revolting enough)