US - Greenland Crisis Thread

[Tamas]

With nothing but respect for our American posters, based on how they rally around the flag when any one of us non-Americans dare critising it, I think if European troops kill attacking American ones, US public opinion will rally against Europeans and NATO, NOT against Trump.

[Duque de Bragança]

I read some time ago that part of the issue is that the local government has banned or severely restricted potential extraction operations (I think uranium extraction in particular was banned by local law).  I agree with you, though, that even without that the economics don't work for most potential operations right now.

Yeah, the local Greenland government approved a Uranium project. Then there was an election, and the new government rescinded the approval (in accordance with their campaigned promises).

Ironically (as I understand it) the new - anti-uranium extraction - government is also more strident on self-governance and potential independence. Basically the Greenlanders who are the most against resource extraction also tend to be the ones more interested in flirting with Trumpism and embracing independence.

It'll be interesting to see how those Greenlanders square that circle (we know how the Trumpists will square it, by ignoring it).

As I said earlier, if Greenland becomes independent, nobody in Europe will lift a finger in case of a US hostile takeover.

Question is, what can Europe (meaning EU plus Norway and the UK) do, while Greenland is still associated to the kingdom of Denmark. If given a choice between Poland, Baltic lands and Romania on one hand, and Greenland on the other hand, the answer has already been given in previous posts.

Also, Canada stands between the US and Greenland, and are a Trumpistani target as well. What can they do? They have a long border with the US...
Back in João Fernandes Labrador and Corte Real days, Canada, well Labrador, Newfoundland and Greenland were linked.

[crazy canuck]

I don't know what the numbers of American military personnel in various European countries are. For countries where the ratio home team/away team is very advantageous having enemy personnel that can be despatched easily may be an advantage (and if we're REALLY lucky not all of them will want to fight their hosts for Trump and will surrender), but in general they are a dagger pointed at the heart of Europe. If we, before the war starts, can get them to go home without shots fired then that's a huge win I think.

If rump NATO doesn't defend Greenland then Russia might start rolling into the Baltics. That alone might make it worth it to fight the US and pray for the US home front to break.

And then face a united Russian American military alliance?  From the European perspective, probably better to save all their resources to fight the Russians.

Hence my comment above about a likely strategy.

Gotcha

[The Brain]

Also, Canada stands between the US and Greenland, and are a Trumpistani target as well. What can they do? They have a long border with the US...

Yeah. How likely is it that Canada will resist a US invasion?

[crazy canuck]

Also, Canada stands between the US and Greenland, and are a Trumpistani target as well. What can they do? They have a long border with the US...

What can Canada do to stop the occupation of our major population centres near the border - not much. But the logistics of occupying the rest of the country would be a nightmare.  Remember, just BC is larger than France and Germany.

The main issue is how would Europe, if so inclined, support the resistance.  This is the scenario where Canada would need to hope for the US home front to rebel.

[crazy canuck]

Also, Canada stands between the US and Greenland, and are a Trumpistani target as well. What can they do? They have a long border with the US...

Yeah. How likely is it that Canada will resist a US invasion?

That is a certainty.  What form the resistance takes is the question.

[The Brain]

Also, Canada stands between the US and Greenland, and are a Trumpistani target as well. What can they do? They have a long border with the US...

Yeah. How likely is it that Canada will resist a US invasion?

That is a certainty.  What form the resistance takes is the question.

Are we talking about resisting as in troops fighting the invading forces, or resisting like Denmark in WW2?

[Duque de Bragança]

Also, Canada stands between the US and Greenland, and are a Trumpistani target as well. What can they do? They have a long border with the US...

Yeah. How likely is it that Canada will resist a US invasion?

According to Agent Orange, they are supposed to request annexation as the 51st state to become biggly rich, so invasion is not – yet – on the cards.
Mexico would get some anti-narcoterrorist raids first.

[Josquius]

I don't get these concerns about Russia invading the baltics.
That's the last thing Russia wants to do right now, they're barely keeping their forces in Ukraine supplied at 19th century levels.
Even if America completely disappeared tomorrow they're in no state for taking on NATO - yes. NATO as a whole isn't very well prepared right now. But given Russias struggles against Ukraine would they really want to take on even just Poland or Sweden or Finland?

The US and Greenland... I agree with Jacob that there are strategy gamer, paint the map vibes. Which is disturbing.

[Duque de Bragança]

Also, Canada stands between the US and Greenland, and are a Trumpistani target as well. What can they do? They have a long border with the US...

What can Canada do to stop the occupation of our major population centres near the border - not much. But the logistics of occupying the rest of the country would be a nightmare.  Remember, just BC is larger than France and Germany.

The main issue is how would Europe, if so inclined, support the resistance.  This is the scenario where Canada would need to hope for the US home front to rebel.

Saint Pierre et Miquelon would get invaded as well (5,000 islanders), just to be on the safe side. France would be forced to react somewhat.
Otherwise, what? Govt-in-Exile, of Québec at least, there ?
What could be done? Would the US still have bases in the Atlantic such as in the Azores or Iceland?
A UQ coup de main against Canada is not possible, unlike Russia against Crimea or even hypothetically Greenland by the Trumpistan.

Really too speculative.

[The Brain]

I don't get these concerns about Russia invading the baltics.
That's the last thing Russia wants to do right now, they're barely keeping their forces in Ukraine supplied at 19th century levels.
Even if America completely disappeared tomorrow they're in no state for taking on NATO - yes. NATO as a whole isn't very well prepared right now. But given Russias struggles against Ukraine would they really want to take on even just Poland or Sweden or Finland?

The Russian gamble would be that, in a scenario where NATO members have said that NATO will be dead, they wouldn't be fighting Poland, Sweden or Finland. Countries start wars that don't make sense all the time.

[Jacob]

As I said earlier, if Greenland becomes independent, nobody in Europe will lift a finger in case of a US hostile takeover.

Yeah for sure, and I think that includes Denmark.

So maybe the coming US push is an attempt to manufacture Greenland independence, or at least enough of an illusion of one that Greenland is abandoned by Europe.

Question is, what can Europe (meaning EU plus Norway and the UK) do, while Greenland is still associated to the kingdom of Denmark. If given a choice between Poland, Baltic lands and Romania on one hand, and Greenland on the other hand, the answer has already been given in previous posts.

Yeah for sure. A very big question from my point of view is to what degree different European countries will rally to support Denmark once it goes beyond signing letters. You mention the UK, but I don't know how much appetite they have for taking practical action against the US, no matter how miniscule.

The thing from my perspective is that rolling over meekly on Greenland makes it very clear to everyone that Europe is powerless and ripe for division into "spheres" as per Putin-Trumpist perspectives. The real trick IMO - even if accepting the loss of Greenland as inevitable if Trump really pushes for it - is to impose a high enough price and accelerate the growth of European strength to the degree it makes repeats less likely. Otherwise we are, IMO, looking at the kick-off of a European "century of humiliation".

Also, Canada stands between the US and Greenland, and are a Trumpistani target as well. What can they do? They have a long border with the US...

I'm relatively confident Canada will do nothing beyond making strong statements and memes (edit to add: I understood that to mean in response to the US annexing Greenland. I'll respond to the "if the US attacks Canada" scenario in a separate post).

[Crazy_Ivan80]

then the lng from the US stops flowing... and it's not coming from Russia either.
At least the Europeans will reach their net-zero then.

[crazy canuck]

Also, Canada stands between the US and Greenland, and are a Trumpistani target as well. What can they do? They have a long border with the US...

Yeah. How likely is it that Canada will resist a US invasion?

That is a certainty.  What form the resistance takes is the question.

Are we talking about resisting as in troops fighting the invading forces, or resisting like Denmark in WW2?

Our military would be quickly overrun, so that phase lasts no more than a couple of days. The more likely resistance is units retreating into the vastness of the Canadian interior and waging guerrilla warfare. 

 

[The Brain]

Also, Canada stands between the US and Greenland, and are a Trumpistani target as well. What can they do? They have a long border with the US...

Yeah. How likely is it that Canada will resist a US invasion?

That is a certainty.  What form the resistance takes is the question.

Are we talking about resisting as in troops fighting the invading forces, or resisting like Denmark in WW2?

Our military would be quickly overrun, so that phase lasts no more than a couple of days. The more likely resistance is units retreating into the vastness of the Canadian interior and waging guerrilla warfare. 

Gotcha.