US - Greenland Crisis Thread

[HVC]

I'd hope you're right, but absent NATO what's the difference between the baltics states and Ukraine? This is nowhere my area of expertise so there are probably key differences I just don't personally know what they are

[Sheilbh]

I would shocked if Finland, Denmark, Sweden, and Poland would not support the Baltic states if they were attacked by Russia.

I'd expect Norway, France, and the UK to act as well, not to mention Germany. At the very least they'd provide air support, I think.

It'd be interesting to see some updated polling since Ukraine and other recent shocks.

The polling on this prior to Ukraine was not that encouraging - this is from 2020.


I think the shock of Ukraine and Trump II may have had an impact. For example, this is interesting to me because I think 2018 was absolutely key in hardening British attitudes to Russia (and dooming Corbyn) because that was the year of the Salisbury attack. That's been intensified with Ukraine but I suspect Ukrain has had that sort of impact across Europe:


But also there is something odd about this moment. So historically in Europe support for NATO basically tended to be higher when more palatable Presidents were in charge. So it was upopular under Bush and popular uner Obama. NATO was also unpopular in Europe during Trump's first term (below 50% approval in France and Germany for example - above 50% in Britain but a big fall). I think that is because it was basically seen as the American and Atlantic European project. I wonder if that's shifted because of Ukraine and because it's now America that doesn't like it if it's becomeing Europeanised in public opinion as our thing?

[Admiral Yi]

Surprised by Netherlands in the first.

[Sheilbh]

I love the Dutch Also admire their consistency.

I think also one of the earliest to start arming Ukraine (I think it was us, Canada, Netherlands and Denmark). I think they're very robust on security.

As I say I suspect all countries have probably seen a pretty big boost - but maybe not.

[Tonitrus]

I'm seeing some reports about the UK, Germany, and France in "talks about deploying troops to Greenland" in order to dissuade Trump from his annexation threats.

They should go on a goodwill visit, and spread an awful lot of goodwill.

Or a "NATO training exercise", and just hang around for a while...3 years or so.

[Admiral Yi]

Or a "NATO training exercise", and just hang around for a while...3 years or so.

That would probably require the approval of (or orders from) the US commander of NATO. :bureaucrat:

[Tonitrus]

Or it wouldn't.

[Legbiter]

Congressman Randy Fine has introduced a bill regrading Greenland.





A Greenlandic family could easily make it through winter with just half a Randy Fine.

[Legbiter]

I wonder if that's shifted because of Ukraine and because it's now America that doesn't like it if it's becomeing Europeanised in public opinion as our thing?

Canadians will yearn to join the EU to avoid being boxed in on all sides geostrategicially by the US. The rest of us will recite the Litany of the EU Sausage every night before bedtime as befits all good Eurocratic centrists before the year is out.

[DGuller]

I think Denmark's "NATO will be dead" is a very dangerous signal to send to Russia. Especially since the US doesn't comprehend the threat from Russia, so raising the stakes is unlikely to dissuade Washington.

He plainly states at one point that NATO today is dead, not that it will be. He also went over what is likely to happen tomorrow at the White House meeting with  Vance and Rubio, the Danes and Greenlanders will be presented with a fait acompli the "easy way" as Trump put it, that is the US will take formal control of Greenland, locals get 10 grand each and a Mar-a-Lago voucher valid for 6 months. The Nordic delegation will plead to no avail and then leave. A firm no will then follow. Then the "hard way" will follow unless the US is sufficiently deterred from trying to forcibly seize Nuuk.

I seem to recall you had in your garage enough material for at least 30 warheads. Better go find that Allen key.

I can definitely see the argument that when allies have to send forces to act as a tripwire against you, then they're no longer your allies.  I do wonder though why NATO can't remain a thing without the US?  Obviously it wouldn't be nearly as effective of an alliance, but whole of Europe answering Article 5 should still be quite a deterrent, I would think.

[Jacob]

I'd hope you're right, but absent NATO what's the difference between the baltics states and Ukraine? This is nowhere my area of expertise so there are probably key differences I just don't personally know what they are

I'm not sure what you mean by "absent NATO". I think what's under consideration is Baltics + local allies, where I think they have a pretty good chance. The Baltics on their own will likely be hooped if facing off against Russia by themselves.

But I expect enough European allies will take their NATO and EU defense commitments serious enough that that's not going to be the case, even if the US bails.

[Jacob]

It'd be interesting to see some updated polling since Ukraine and other recent shocks.

Yeah, I don't think polling from 2019-2020 is much more relevant than polling from 1974-1975

[Zoupa]

Last I checked, the Baltic states are part of the EU.

Article 42(7) TEU: If a Member State is the victim of armed aggression on its territory, the other Member States shall have towards it an obligation of aid and assistance by all the means in their power, in accordance with Article 51 of the United Nations Charter.

This is stronger than NATO's article V ("such action as [the member state] deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area").

Obligation > "deems necessary"

[Jacob]

I can definitely see the argument that when allies have to send forces to act as a tripwire against you, then they're no longer your allies.  I do wonder though why NATO can't remain a thing without the US?  Obviously it wouldn't be nearly as effective of an alliance, but whole of Europe answering Article 5 should still be quite a deterrent, I would think.

There are some obvious practical things to be figured out in terms of both logistics and command & control, given how central the US has been to NATO - but yeah, I don't think all the European countries are going to renege on their mutual NATO commitments just because Trump decides to walk away.

Also, the EU has some mutual defense articles as well - this leaves out the UK, but I don't expect the UK will let that stop them necessarily.

[Jacob]

Congressman Randy Fine has introduced a bill regrading Greenland.

Randy is not, in my view, fine.

A Greenlandic family could easily make it through winter with just half a Randy Fine.

I think they'd prefer less contaminated food to be honest.