Trump's Venezuela Vendetta

[Jacob]

You don't need any media ramp up if there's no real pushback from civilians against anything you do.

... or if you don't care about international reactions and coalitions. Which, it seems clear, Trump does not.

Re: civilian pushback, opposition to war is one of the more common things for civilian opposition to coalesce around.

That said, it seems clear that the Trump coalition is pretty confident that they can manage civilian opposition with a combination of social media narratives, social controls, and jackbooted thugs in government employ.

[Josquius]

I guess its weird with venezeula as its a long standing embodiment of socialism = bad = woke liberal left which is already pretty built up as fact with the maga crowd. Not quite the same as some random middle eastern dictatorship which clearly isn't linked to anything at home.

[The Minsky Moment]

Otto was right in the other thread; invasion is not on the menu.  It's always about putting on a show.

[grumbler]

A former US ambassador has put forth the idea trump is planning to attack Venezuela to line up with the epstein files being released..... Which does make sense

If and when Trump actually countenances the use of the American forces to enact regime change it will be the crossing of a significant line. Typically it requires a certain level of moral clarity and taking of responsibility that is anathema to Trump's core being.

How well will his equivocating, wink-wink nudge-nudge blame games and bluster play out when people start dying in numbers as a direct result of his decisions?

Traditionally Americans exhibit a significant level of rallying around the flag when they engage in a new military conflict. How much will that play out here?

I expect the success of the endeavour will also have an impact. If it's an unmitigated disaster for Americans, that will play out differently than if it's a surgical display of pure American dominance (though social media will play a role here, no doubt).

It certainly will be interesting to see what happens in a scenario where Trump overcomes his aversion to deploying the US military, if it becomes habitual (whether he's actually making a decision himself, or whether it's a pro-war clique inside his administration who pushed it through).

Also, I feel like for a traditional American regime change intervention, we should be seeing a massive media ramp up explaining why the Venezuelan regime is evil and how it would be morally wrong to not overthrow them right now. I've basically seen none of that - either they're not doing it, or they're doing it but I'm so far outside the target group that I'm not even seeing it second hand.

The problem for Trump is that he has no cards. Maduro knows that the Law of TACO will save him if he just holds out, and Trump surely knows that he hasn't assembled anything like the force necessary to actually invade.

Venezuelans largely hate Maduro, but that doesn't mean they'd greet an invasion.

[Jacob]

Yeah, I agree with you and with Otto. It's most likely bluster.

[PRC]

Maduro could also try flattering Trump... that might buy some time.