Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Razgovory]

I guess Tel-Aviv is a no-go zone for Jews if we go by Raz's logic...

Your logic is unassailable.  

[Zoupa]

Le chiot n'apprécie pas lorsqu'on lui met le nez dans son caca.

[Jacob]

The UK just signed the largest ever deal with Palantir.

I guess in the coming bifurcation of the West, the UK is going to align with the Trumpists?

[crazy canuck]

The UK just signed the largest ever deal with Palantir.

I guess in the coming bifurcation of the West, the UK is going to align with the Trumpists?

I guess Brexit sealed their fate?

[Zanza]

Isn't Britain on track to elect Nigel Farage as next PM?

I am already waiting for Sheilbh's essay to explain us why this is good. 

[Admiral Yi]

The UK just signed the largest ever deal with Palantir.

I guess in the coming bifurcation of the West, the UK is going to align with the Trumpists?

I think it more likely they had other criteria for the purchase than virtue signalling.

[PJL]

Looks like the deal was done before the current events regarding Venezuela, back in December, so it doesn't really say much about what is happening now.

[Sheilbh]

The UK just signed the largest ever deal with Palantir.

I guess in the coming bifurcation of the West, the UK is going to align with the Trumpists?

An extension of the existing deal - Palantir have been involved in lots of government contracts for a while.

And it's ot just the UK - just last month the French intelligence agency renewed their big contract with Palantir (around since 2016). The sad reality is there is no European Palantir. There might be a Chinese alternative but that's probably about it (in retrospect we should have put up a Great Firewall of Europe and built a European internet). When even the French DGSI are relying on an American tech company, I think it's because there is no other option. The context for that, incidentally, was the aftermath of the Bataclan attack and the DGSI have since twice expanded the relationship with Palantir. The recent extension was decided after the 2024 Paris Olympics. Which I think gives a helpful sense of what Palantir allows states to do.

Palantir is also used in the NATO's Allied Command Operations (the war room) since earlier this year. They've got big government contracts with Germany, Netherlands, Poland, Greece and all the Nordics among others. I think Siren is the only possible Western alternative (HQed in Ireland) but I don't think they've had much success in winning national security/government contracts (yet).

The bifurcation of the "West" will be the bifurcation of Europe, not with Europe as one of the agents. There isn't a European alternative to Palantir. We are fully dependent on the US for our security but also for tech (and in large part for quite a lot of growth). There is no European cloud, Google, Palantir.

Everything flows from that until we're in a position that we're not fully dependent for security or tech. I don't see much sign of that happening any time soon - not with this generation of leaders. They're mentally incapable of imagining far less creating alternatives to the certainties they grew up with, as that order collapses. (FWIW I think this is the driver of the policy by Macron, Starmer, Merz and others are doing, particularly regarding Ukraine, as unsatisfying emotionally as it is.)

But I think recognising the weakness is key because that's the only way we'll be able to advance. Obviously how you "self-strengthen" to nick a phrase without just increasing dependence is a big problem.

Isn't Britain on track to elect Nigel Farage as next PM?

I am already waiting for Sheilbh's essay to explain us why this is good. 

I actually am more bearish on Farage's chances. They seem to be plateauing and I'm not sure if that's their ceiling.

On why it's good I'm struck that Keir Starmer, Labour ministers, successive Tory PMs, Dominic Cummings and others have now converged on basically the same analysis of Britain's problems around state capacity and the inability to do anything. Sadly we seem no closer to fixing it.

And with a Farage (or a Polanski) led government I think the inability to do anything would be even more heightened - and I would very much worry about what comes next if none of the democratic alternatives/democratic politics are able to meaningfully change things. As ever, I don't think any of this is a British phenomenon - it seems to me that it's the case across Europe.

[Sheilbh]

Looks like the deal was done before the current events regarding Venezuela, back in December, so it doesn't really say much about what is happening now.

I mean Starmer and Kallas and Macron and others have released incredible insipid statements. We are monitoring the situation. When Trump seizes Greenland the levels of monitoring will reach hitherto unimagined heights.

It annoys me but the only country that didn't sign up to the very bland EU statement on Venezuela was Hungary and the best statements, in my view, on it have come from Le Pen and Bardella

[Valmy]

They say misery loves company but doesn't hearten me much to see the complacency and incompetence of the Democrats in the face of an existantial threat seems to be a political phenomenon throughout the western world for non extremist political parties.

[Duque de Bragança]

Looks like the deal was done before the current events regarding Venezuela, back in December, so it doesn't really say much about what is happening now.

I mean Starmer and Kallas and Macron and others have released incredible insipid statements. We are monitoring the situation. When Trump seizes Greenland the levels of monitoring will reach hitherto unimagined heights.

It annoys me but the only country that didn't sign up to the very bland EU statement on Venezuela was Hungary and the best statements, in my view, on it have come from Le Pen and Bardella

Well, at least Macron is not as bad as Mélenchon or the communists, quite pro-Maduro, namely Mélenchon's LFI.