Iran War

[HVC]

Surprised they haven't tried to rename the straight like they did the Gulf of Mexico.

[Syt]

 

[Baron von Schtinkenbutt]

Surprised they haven't tried to rename the straight like they did the Gulf of Mexico.

Still trying to get Chevron and ExxonMobil into a bidding war over the naming rights.

[HVC]

Surprised they haven't tried to rename the straight like they did the Gulf of Mexico.

Still trying to get Chevron and ExxonMobil into a bidding war over the naming rights.

Ooh good call. Chevron Straight brought to you by Trump Ltd.

[The Minsky Moment]

It feels like an early 80s text based computer game where you are trying to figure out how to solve the next puzzle.

Bomb Iran.   
You sink 1 frigate! Munitions inventory down to 40. Iran is unaffected and closes Strait of Hormuz
Get strait.
command not recognized
Take strait
command not recognized
Blockade strait
Strait of Hormuz is now blockaded.  Oil price rises to $100
Give Iran Deal
Are you sure you want to give Deal to Iran?  They will win the war
Give Iran Deal
MoU signed!  USA has lost the war!
Move Oil
Oil can't move, strait of Hormuz still closed
Open strait
USA cannot open strait while Guard controls Iran
Remove Guard
command not recognized
Bomb Iran
You sink 1 frigate! Munitions inventory down to 30. Iran is unaffected. Strait of Hormuz still closed. Oil price to $100
Blockade strait . . .

[grumbler]

It feels like an early 80s text based computer game where you are trying to figure out how to solve the next puzzle.

Bomb Iran.   
You sink 1 frigate! Munitions inventory down to 40. Iran is unaffected and closes Strait of Hormuz
Get strait.
command not recognized
Take strait
command not recognized
Blockade strait
Strait of Hormuz is now blockaded.  Oil price rises to $100
Give Iran Deal
Are you sure you want to give Deal to Iran?  They will win the war
Give Iran Deal
MoU signed!  USA has lost the war!
Move Oil
Oil can't move, strait of Hormuz still closed
Open strait
USA cannot open strait while Guard controls Iran
Remove Guard
command not recognized
Bomb Iran
You sink 1 frigate! Munitions inventory down to 30. Iran is unaffected. Strait of Hormuz still closed. Oil price to $100
Blockade strait . . .

  POTM

[Richard Hakluyt]

Yes indeed, very good 

[Syt]

 

Though I could also see it as a Pokemon battle.

"Trump tries to use Blockade! It's not very effective!"
"He hurt himself in his confusion!"

[Syt]

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cwy30p89rlgt?post=asset%3Ad79fce30-797d-4da9-aefa-877da16f2fc0#post

Donald Trump's 20% toll on ships going through the Strait of Hormuz could see ships paying up to $17m (£12.7m) per ship, according to a shipping expert.

Richard Meade, editor of shipping journal Lloyds List, tells the BBC that Iran's pricing structure appeared more "reasonable" than Trump's fees, although there is no "international legal basis" for imposing either.

He says a fully laden gas carrier or an oil tanker could be forced to pay between $16m and $17m for passing through the strait with the imposed fees.

"For comparison, the Iranian fees initially started out in the range of £1m to £2m and then descended back down to around £100,000 to £200,000 per ship in some cases," he adds.

Meade says insurance costs will also be "skyrocketing" as the conflict escalates, just as they were going down.

He adds the problem is "we are yet to see any details" of how Trump will impose the 20% toll, adding the president "has mentioned these things before and then walked away from them".

The continuation of attacks from the Houthis in Yemen will also add further costs for ships transiting oil from Saudi Arabia through the Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandab Strait, Meade says.

[mongers]

There will come a time when the notional cost of insuring these ships against the risks posed by Iran will be overshadowed by the risks posed by trumps actions?

[Valmy]

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cwy30p89rlgt?post=asset%3Ad79fce30-797d-4da9-aefa-877da16f2fc0#post

Donald Trump's 20% toll on ships going through the Strait of Hormuz could see ships paying up to $17m (£12.7m) per ship, according to a shipping expert.

Richard Meade, editor of shipping journal Lloyds List, tells the BBC that Iran's pricing structure appeared more "reasonable" than Trump's fees, although there is no "international legal basis" for imposing either.

He says a fully laden gas carrier or an oil tanker could be forced to pay between $16m and $17m for passing through the strait with the imposed fees.

"For comparison, the Iranian fees initially started out in the range of £1m to £2m and then descended back down to around £100,000 to £200,000 per ship in some cases," he adds.

Meade says insurance costs will also be "skyrocketing" as the conflict escalates, just as they were going down.

He adds the problem is "we are yet to see any details" of how Trump will impose the 20% toll, adding the president "has mentioned these things before and then walked away from them".

The continuation of attacks from the Houthis in Yemen will also add further costs for ships transiting oil from Saudi Arabia through the Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandab Strait, Meade says.

It never ceases to amaze me that even after all these years serious people still stop and do serious analysis of Trump's nonsense.

There are no details, it is just him saying things.

[Sheilbh]

There will come a time when the notional cost of insuring these ships against the risks posed by Iran will be overshadowed by the risks posed by trumps actions?

From my understanding - insurers will not cover traversing the straits while Iran has them closed.

This was one of Trump's earlier attempts - which never amounted to anything. The US government basically proposed underwriting the insurers to try and break the Iranian closure. None of them bit.

[mongers]

I meant to say 'in peacetime', whatever that actually means in this post-truth world.

[crazy canuck]

I suppose it was inevitable the US would full protection racket on the world.

[The Minsky Moment]

From my understanding - insurers will not cover traversing the straits while Iran has them closed.

This was one of Trump's earlier attempts - which never amounted to anything. The US government basically proposed underwriting the insurers to try and break the Iranian closure. None of them bit.

It was a completely half-assed effort - classic case of someone says something to Trump, then Trump waves his hands and says he's going to do it, and then nothing happens because no one has a clue how to do it. Asking the Trump administration to understand the workings of the commercial marine insurance and reinsurance markets, then devise a proper facility that provides the required assurances, and then find funding for it: it's a hopeless enterprise.  You'd have better luck ordering a pack of land snails to build a suspension bridge.