Iran War

[Zanza]

He will lift sanctions as that's "free" and cheat them on the reconstruction fund. The Iranians will complain, but accept it as lifted sanctions, strait tolls and less US interests in the region are still a strategic victory for them.

[HisMajestyBOB]

And the strait is closed again.

[Sheilbh]

There have been Israeli strikes in Lebanon all day.

[crazy canuck]

The ratio of kills seems irrelevant when so few of the military on both sides were actually killed.

The US does have a very impressive killer ratio when it comes to civilian deaths, but I'm not sure that's something to be proud of.

[Valmy]

There have been Israeli strikes in Lebanon all day.

Yeah well...not sure what else we expected.

But we are the biggest dumbasses in the world today.

[Jacob]

It's an interesting situation, for sure.

How will the US-Israel relationship evolve from here?

If...

• Trump needs the Hormuz Strait to be open,
• The US cannot force the Hormuz Strait open,
• Iran will not keep the Strait open unless Israel stops fighting in Lebanon,
• Israel will not stop fighting in Lebanon

... something will have to give eventually.

How will it play out?

[Valmy]

It's an interesting situation, for sure.

How will the US-Israel relationship evolve from here?

If...

• Trump needs the Hormuz Strait to be open,
• The US cannot force the Hormuz Strait open,
• Iran will not keep the Strait open unless Israel stops fighting in Lebanon,
• Israel will not stop fighting in Lebanon

... something will have to give eventually.

How will it play out?

I don't know. It is an impossible situation that even a brilliant statesman would struggle to manage.

[The Minsky Moment]

It's an interesting situation, for sure.

How will the US-Israel relationship evolve from here?

If...

• Trump needs the Hormuz Strait to be open,
• The US cannot force the Hormuz Strait open,
• Iran will not keep the Strait open unless Israel stops fighting in Lebanon,
• Israel will not stop fighting in Lebanon

... something will have to give eventually.

How will it play out?

There's no mystery there.  JD Vance, who led the negotiations for this shit sandwich, just went out and threatened to pull military aid to Israel.

Domestic US politics and Vance's presidential ambitions are driving this bus, as long as Trump himself remains checked out and up to and until someone whispers something else in Trump's ear that gets him to change course.

[Grey Fox]

How's that going to square with the bill in Congress that has clauses basically integrating the Israeli military directly into US military funding?

[Savonarola]

There have been Israeli strikes in Lebanon all day.

I liked this headline from the BBC:

Israel and Hezbollah agree ceasefire, US says, as more Lebanon strikes reported

We must have brought Baghdad Bob out of retirement to have him write our press releases.

[The Minsky Moment]

How's that going to square with the bill in Congress that has clauses basically integrating the Israeli military directly into US military funding?

You can't think of the Trump administration like a normal US or western government.  It's more like an early modern royal court or an organized crime syndicate, with a lot of competing factions and sub-bosses unified only by loyalty to the big boss. What we are seeing now is what often is seen in such situations where the king or the top boss is ailing and the grandees and capos maneuver to control the succession.  It's not unusual or surprising to see regime players working at cross-purposes

[Jacob]

There's no mystery there.  JD Vance, who led the negotiations for this shit sandwich, just went out and threatened to pull military aid to Israel.

Domestic US politics and Vance's presidential ambitions are driving this bus, as long as Trump himself remains checked out and up to and until someone whispers something else in Trump's ear that gets him to change course.

So potentially a serious rift in the US-Israel relationship. That would be a significant victory for Iran.

[Jacob]

You can't think of the Trump administration like a normal US or western government.  It's more like an early modern royal court or an organized crime syndicate, with a lot of competing factions and sub-bosses unified only by loyalty to the big boss. What we are seeing now is what often is seen in such situations where the king or the top boss is ailing and the grandees and capos maneuver to control the succession.  It's not unusual or surprising to see regime players working at cross-purposes

Yeah, this is one of the weaknesses of "strong man" dictatorship mode of leadership.

[Sheilbh]

I'd add to that - even aside from the Trump factor - Netanyahu's strategy for the last decade (including Gaza) has massively hurt the bipartisan support for Israel. What's striking is how much it sounds like Obama and Biden people - but they had to speak off the record/couldn't say this publicly.

But also I think there is a generational shift (a bit like with NATO) from people with an emotional attachment to Israel because of the "miracle" state narrative, or the 67 and Entebbe view of Israel, to a generation that I just don't think has that attachment.

And I think as that attachment's diminished on the American side, the arrogance (perhaps hubris) and aggression of Israel has increased - see Ben Gvir's rhetoric today.

Again Netanyahu's pitch has always been he'll deal with the threat from Iran and he knows how to get things done in DC. He's having to spin this positively but the Israeli right is having a breakdown (and Vance is right to point out how much Israel relies on American aid).

[viper37]

I really thought it was an internet joke that Macron had suggested the... err, peace treaty between Iran and US be signed at Versailles.  But it's real.