Iran War

[Jacob]

The Beaverton's take seems pretty accurate: https://www.thebeaverton.com/2026/06/everything-you-need-to-know-about-trumps-iran-deal/

[The Minsky Moment]

I am talking about under the present circumstances.

Although it is true that the Trump administration systematically undermined the American negotiation position at every turn, I find it hard to believe that a proper team of experienced diplomats with appropriate country expertise, operating with the context of a functioning national security apparatus, would not have been able to achieve better results than this even on present conditions.

[Valmy]

I am talking about under the present circumstances.

Although it is true that the Trump administration systematically undermined the American negotiation position at every turn, I find it hard to believe that a proper team of experienced diplomats with appropriate country expertise, operating with the context of a functioning national security apparatus, would not have been able to achieve better results than this even on present conditions.

Obama probably would have done better. That's true. But how much better really? Iran has us by the balls.

[Valmy]

The Beaverton's take seems pretty accurate: https://www.thebeaverton.com/2026/06/everything-you-need-to-know-about-trumps-iran-deal/

More truthful than how much of the Oligarch controlled newsmedia is reporting it over here.

[HVC]

But at this point America has built up so much bad faith internationally would a country trust a "equal" deal? If you're gonna get screwed over anyway might as well go for a sweetheart deal and hope for the best. Your odds are the same.

[crazy canuck]

Nope, absolutely not. The United States simply could have walked away And reset the status quo to the way, it was the day after the United States, and it's foolishness, cancelled the agreement. The Obama administration had made.

What's happening now? Is the Trump administration needs to be able to say that it made a deal no matter how fucking idiotic it is.

I am talking about under the present circumstances.

Obviously the right thing to do was to never have cancelled Obama's agreement and bombed Iran to begin with.

But given the fact that the United States has done those things, signing this MOU and a peace treaty in which we pay reparations to Iran is the right thing to do.

It is hard to understand how just withdrawing with no agreement in place could be worse, except for Trump's political position.

Ergo, he saddled your country with terrible terms to save his political hide, or at least try to.  Par for the course.

Also, you are kidding yourself if you think this is the end of it.  Iran is now empowered and will keep demanding things.  The Americans have demonstrated that is how things are now done.  Agreements mean nothing.

[Savonarola]

I am starting to think that this Trump may not be the greatest dealmaker in history. 

He said he wanted unconditional surrender, he just didn't say whose.

[crazy canuck]

I am starting to think that this Trump may not be the greatest dealmaker in history. 

He said he wanted unconditional surrender, he just didn't say whose.

 

[Barrister]

It is hard to understand how just withdrawing with no agreement in place could be worse, except for Trump's political position.

Ergo, he saddled your country with terrible terms to save his political hide, or at least try to.  Par for the course.

Also, you are kidding yourself if you think this is the end of it.  Iran is now empowered and will keep demanding things.  The Americans have demonstrated that is how things are now done.  Agreements mean nothing.

So there's no doubt the US is eating a big shit sandwich here pretty much no matter what (well, short of massive escalation).

You're the only one I've seen, anywhere, suggest that just withdrawing without any deal whatsoever is a realistic option here.

Let's game this out though.

Under Trump's MOU - the US lifts sanctions on Iran, allows billions to flow to Iran (which are Iranian assets initially, then this $300 billion reconstruction fund later on).  Very milquetoast promises on Iranian nuclear program.  Cessation of hostilities (which includes Lebanon/Hezbollah).  In exchange the Straight of Hormuz is opened.

Like I said - a shit sandwich.  No one is saying this is a good deal.

But the alternative?

US walks away.  Sanctions remain.  Not sure if under your plan the Iranian "blockade" is lifted or not.  Iran gets no money.  Iran declares complete control over the Straights of Hormuz.  No traffic transits the straights without their permission.  So they start to extract pretty significant rents from Arab gulf powers, plus will hold this weapon over the heads of the US and the West for years to come.  (In the long-term I guess we could see massive trans-Saudi pipelines to avoid the Gulf).

So really - the US is paying tribute to Iran to keep the Straights open.  Hardly a great solution - but it gives Iran incentive to keep the straights open or else they lose that tribute.  That's not nothing.

[Grey Fox]

Can't believe America chose to wage an air war just to lose it.

[celedhring]

BB! 

[Sheilbh]

Although it is true that the Trump administration systematically undermined the American negotiation position at every turn, I find it hard to believe that a proper team of experienced diplomats with appropriate country expertise, operating with the context of a functioning national security apparatus, would not have been able to achieve better results than this even on present conditions.

I'm not so sure - once the bombing starts, the straits are closed and the regime is holding I'm not really sure that there's any reason for Iran to accept anything less than fairly maximalist conditions (especially on Lebanon and the straits). It seems to me that the alternatives are accepting defeat with all that flows from that (however Trump presents it) or escalating.

BB

[DGuller]

Devil's advocate here:  if you know you blundered into a war you can't win, would you rather tuck your tail and concede early, or should you throw good money after bad for many years on when the end is inevitable?  It doesn't mean you should blunder into wars you can't win, but that ship has sailed (and is currently stuck in the Strait of Hormuz).

[Sheilbh]

Devil's advocate here:  if you know you blundered into a war you can't win, would you rather tuck your tail and concede early, or should you throw good money after bad for many years on when the end is inevitable?  It doesn't mean you should blunder into wars you can't win, but that ship has sailed (and is currently stuck in the Strait of Hormuz).

I agree - and I think the fact that a chunk of the public will basically accept that whatever he's done is good is maybe helpful here.

[Barrister]

Devil's advocate here:  if you know you blundered into a war you can't win, would you rather tuck your tail and concede early, or should you throw good money after bad for many years on when the end is inevitable?  It doesn't mean you should blunder into wars you can't win, but that ship has sailed (and is currently stuck in the Strait of Hormuz).

Here's the thing though with a Trump administration - Is the end inevitable?  Is it a war you can't win?

On the one hand it's still a very unpopular regime both in and out of Iran, it was bombarded for what was it 60 days?  The US still has the world's most potent military.

The problem is any escalation would be hard and would cost American lives.  We know Trump's instinct is to jus TACO, and the US public (and MAGA base in particular) have a reluctance to get involved in foreign wars - but that doesn't mean it's the wrong response here.