Iran War?

[mongers]

Yes nearly everyone BUT Bibi's Israel is bearing the cost of this war; he's happy for it to be a forever war, keeps him in power and out of jail.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Israel is certainly bearing the cost of the war in economic terms as can be easily discerned from looking at numerous economic reports on the ongoing cost of Israel's wars dating back to October 7th are well known.

[OttoVonBismarck]

The two major pipelines that allow KSA and UAE to bypass the Strait with a portion of their production are both fully operational BTW. The issue is neither is capable of carrying the entirety of either country's production (the KSA pipeline is far more significant), and of course they offer no transit for the other gulf states.

I thought the Iranians had hit Fujairah?

And as well as no transit for the rest I think all that infrastructure is for oil not gas?

So there's a few separate things at play:

1. Fujairah Port on the Gulf of Oman is a major oil export terminal for UAE, it is on the other side of the Strait of Hormuz. The UAE's pipeline system allows oil to go from the UAE's oil fields to Fujairah, bypassing the need to go through the Strait. However, even at full capacity of both the pipeline and Fujairah, this isn't enough to get UAE's full production to market. Some is simply stymied by the closure of the Strait.

Two days ago the port facilities in Fujairah were hit, resulting in a partial shut down. The pipeline as far as I know was not damaged.

2. The KSA East/West pipeline actually goes all the way to the Red Sea, not just bypassing the Strait of Hormuz but bypassing the entire eastern coastline of the Arabian peninsula. This pipeline carries 7m bpd, and as far as I know has not been interrupted at present.

The KSA pipeline has two main pipes, one of which sometimes is configured to carry natural gas instead of liquid petroleum, but due to the greater profitability and importance to KSA's economy of exporting crude oil vs natural gas, both pipes are currently moving crude oil.

3. The UAE's Shah gas field was directly struck, the full scope of the damage and impact on production is, AFAIK, not known at this time.

[Sheilbh]

Thanks - that's very interesting.

Hamidreza Azizi's latest update - I don't think I've posted a full one before. But three things seem particularly interesting to me: the domestic crackdown in Iran, what's happening in Iraq (and between Iraq and Syria) and the Houthis waiting for their moment (when the US commits to trying to re-open Hormuz? When tankers are diverted into the Red Sea?):

Hamidreza Azizi
@HamidRezaAz
#Iran War Update No. 18 (focus on Iranian strategic narrative):

🔹The maritime dimension of the war is moving toward a more dangerous phase. Reports suggest Israel may join the U.S. in expanding operations around the Strait of Hormuz, while Iranian discussions increasingly point to a possible shift from selective disruption to full closure, including the use of naval mines if pressure intensifies.

🔹At the same time, U.S. strikes are becoming more focused on degrading Iran's maritime disruption capabilities. CENTCOM confirmed the use of heavy bunker-busting munitions against Iranian anti-ship missile sites near the Strait of Hormuz, underscoring efforts to reopen the waterway by force if necessary.

🔹Iran continues signaling that escalation could extend to additional chokepoints. The Houthis remain a ready secondary front, with the potential to target shipping in the Bab el-Mandeb if pressure on Hormuz increases, forcing the U.S. to operate across multiple maritime theaters.

🔹Attacks on Gulf states continued, with the UAE facing one of the heaviest waves so far. Emirati officials report thousands of drone and missile strikes since the start of the war, raising the likelihood that Abu Dhabi may move toward a more active role in supporting the U.S. operation against Iran.

🔹This raises the risk of a sharper Iran-UAE confrontation. Iranian concerns about the UAE's role in the war and its potential ambitions regarding disputed islands in the Persian Gulf are resurfacing, suggesting that this front could escalate further.

🔹Iran has also expanded its warnings to additional regional actors. Statements directed at Jordan and Azerbaijan claimed that any country facilitating U.S. or Israeli operations could be treated as a legitimate target.

🔹Inside Iran, Israeli operations appear increasingly focused on internal security structures. Strikes on Basij forces and police units across Tehran suggest an effort to weaken the regime's domestic control apparatus rather than only its conventional military capabilities.

🔹This has heightened fears in Tehran of internal destabilization. Authorities are intensifying crackdowns, including arrests, asset seizures, and restrictions on communications such as Starlink, while also encouraging public mobilization – of their own support base – to deter unrest.

🔹The internal security dimension is becoming more acute following reports of targeted killings of senior figures, including Ali Larijani and Basij commander Gholamreza Soleimani.

🔹Meanwhile, tensions in Iraq continue to rise. Attacks on U.S. diplomatic and military sites are increasing, while U.S. strikes on Iran-aligned armed groups are fueling a cycle of escalation that is pulling Iraq deeper into the conflict.

🔹The Iraq-Syria nexus is becoming more volatile. A Reuters report about potential Syrian involvement against Hezbollah surfaced alongside intensified U.S. strikes on PMF positions in Anbar province, following earlier attacks near the al-Qaim border crossing, raising concerns about a broader effort to weaken Iran-aligned forces along this corridor.

🔹Nuclear risks are also entering the picture. A reported strike near the Bushehr nuclear facility has raised concerns about the potential consequences of any direct hit on nuclear infrastructure, including the risk of regional contamination.

🔹Iran continues to leverage the Strait of Hormuz selectively. While most shipping remains disrupted, Iranian oil exports – primarily to China – continue, with estimates suggesting around $140 million per day in revenue and sustained flows, highlighting a strategy of controlled economic pressure rather than total shutdown of the strait.

🔹At the same time, Tehran is increasingly explicit about its conditions for ending the war. Iranian officials state that reopening the strait would require not only a ceasefire, but also compensation, sanctions relief, and an end to operations against its regional allies, including Hezbollah.

🔹This approach is reinforced by emerging patterns of bilateral arrangements. Countries such as India and Turkey are reportedly negotiating access to the strait directly with Iran, suggesting the early contours of a more fragmented and transactional maritime order.

🔹Iranian media is also framing developments in U.S. domestic politics as part of the battlefield. Reports of internal disagreements in Washington and political pressure on Donald Trump are interpreted as signs that Iran's cost-imposition strategy is having an effect.

🔹Overall, Iran appears to be using control over the Strait of Hormuz as leverage, while signs are growing that the United States and Israel are preparing to challenge that strategy more directly. As Tehran continues disruption without fully shutting the strait, recent strikes on coastal missile sites and discussions about expanded operations suggest that Washington and its allies may be moving toward a more forceful effort to reopen maritime routes.

Edit: Also Qatar Energy confirming "extensive damage" to Ras Laffan Industrial City which is in Ed Conway's brilliant book Material World. It's not just really important for gas but also responsible for about a third of the world's helium production - helium is really important in loads of supply chains for medical equipment, semiconductors etc. Lots of other products too so a very signficant site and with "extensive damage" likely to be a big hit to supply chains even if Hormuz is re-opened.

[jimmy olsen]

Israel bombed the biggest Iranian gas field today. Iran threatened retaliation.   

I read an estimate today that the global economic damage from closing the Straits is 14 billion USD per day. 

It's bad

https://fxtwitter.com/NewsWire_US/status/2034337086220681578?s=20

Major Fire Breaks Out at Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG Complex After Iranian Attack — World's Largest Facility Affected

https://fxtwitter.com/MenchOsint/status/2034348372346245584?s=20

Another angle showing a second Iranian Ballistic Missile direct hit on Riyadh's energy facilities.

https://x.com/i/status/2034386357527752798

UPDATE: Iran warns will destroy Gulf energy sector if its own attacked again

The Escalation train has no brakes
https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/iran-war-us-israel-trump-03-18-26?post-id=cmmwv6eop00003b6sslrnbn5n

President Donald Trump tonight threatened to "massively blow up" Iran's largest gas field, South Pars, if the nation continues attacks on Qatar in retaliation for an Israeli strike on the gas field.

"Israel, out of anger for what has taken place in the Middle East, has violently lashed out at a major facility known as South Pars Gas Field in Iran," Trump posted on Truth Social.

"The United States knew nothing about this particular attack," he said, adding that Qatar was similarly unaware. "Unfortunately, Iran did not know this, or any of the pertinent facts pertaining to the South Pars attack, and unjustifiably and unfairly attacked a portion of Qatar's LNG Gas facility."

Trump said Israel would not attack the gas field again unless Iran strikes an innocent party, "in which instance," he said, "the United States of America, with or without the help or consent of Israel, will massively blow up the entirety of the South Pars Gas Field at an amount of strength and power that Iran has never seen or witnessed before."

[Richard Hakluyt]

On the one hand a petulant fool with an IQ of 70 (I'm being kind), on the other a bunch of ghastly religious fanatics.....it is hard to see how the escalation will not continue.

[garbon]

Based on snippets I have read since the war started my half-educated guess is that Iran was willing to partially bend the knee to Trump in the negotiations, so Bibi convinced him to awe the world with a Venezuela-stlye decapitation instead, since it didn't serve his interest to give Iran or indeed Israel, breathing room.

That was definitely a mistake by Iran; they should have continued to play hardball. OTOH, they're in a much better position now than they were before the war, as long as they don't keep losing key figures in the administration and military.

It isn't clear to me that they are now economically better off, which was a big issue facing Iran, right?

[Legbiter]

I thought the Iranians had hit Fujairah?

Blown up yesterday yes in direct retaliation.   Also the Saudi alternate pipeline infrastructure is apparently just as vulnerable as what is around the Gulf.

[crazy canuck]

On the one hand a petulant fool with an IQ of 70 (I'm being kind), on the other a bunch of ghastly religious fanatics.....it is hard to see how the escalation will not continue.

And the Iranians are also matching each attack

[Legbiter]

Here's Lloyds with this tidbit.

Iran has created a de facto 'safe' shipping corridor through its territorial waters in the Strait of Hormuz, offering vetted vessels passage in exchange for approval — and in at least one case, a reported $2m payment

https://x.com/LloydsList/status/2034317028991869190

-Several governments — including India, Pakistan, Iraq, Malaysia and China — are in direct talks with Tehran, coordinating vessel transits via an emerging IRGC-run registration and vetting system

-At least nine ships have already used the corridor, routed close to Iran's Larak Island for visual checks by IRGC Navy and port authorities

-A more formalised approval process is expected soon, requiring extensive disclosure of vessel ownership and cargo destination, often via Iran-linked intermediaries abroad

-Security experts warn Iranian approval does not guarantee safety, noting IRGC factions could still delay or seize vessels despite clearance

https://www.lloydslist.com/LL1156656/Iran-establishes-safe-shipping-corridor-for-approved-and-paid-for-transits

[Sheilbh]

I think "escalation" slightly depends on your perspective. From a global and, particularly a Western, one then this is escalating as it attacks infrastructure, energy and the global economy.

From an Iranian - and I do keep going back to this - the day one attack by Israel and the US was to militarily assassinate their head of state. To an extent that may just be the American way of war - shock and awe, massive overwhelming use of power (because that is always America's advantage) - but I think it means that for Iran this kind of started at 100.

Their goal following that, I think fairly understandably, seems to be to try to get into a position where that cannot happen again. They know the US and Israel are well defended so they can't do the very big attack - they need to ramp it up to wear down defences, exhaust opponents etc. And the one thing they can more easily escalate is the global economy (they can also try to increase the pain on US allies in the region). They're escalating up and down within that - but I do think that first strike is the context for that.

[HVC]

Here's Lloyds with this tidbit.

Iran has created a de facto 'safe' shipping corridor through its territorial waters in the Strait of Hormuz, offering vetted vessels passage in exchange for approval — and in at least one case, a reported $2m payment

Don't give trump any ideas.

[OttoVonBismarck]

I will say--fully understanding it is negative for the broader global economy, I feel little but schadenfreude at seeing the likes of KSA, UAE, and Qatar suffer economic impacts. All three of these countries are terrible, with toxic rulers and horrifically shitty societies. All three have actively worked to export misery, terrorism, and Islamic extremism abroad. While the wicked autocratic monarchs who rule these countries are probably the "best we're likely to get" in terms of who would govern such fundamentally Islamist regions, that doesn't equate to me actually thinking they're good countries. I think the UAE and Dubai in specific is given far too much cultural acceptance and prominence relative to how terrible the UAE is. I'm not losing any sleep over these guys getting less oil money for a while.

[garbon]

Here's Lloyds with this tidbit.

Iran has created a de facto 'safe' shipping corridor through its territorial waters in the Strait of Hormuz, offering vetted vessels passage in exchange for approval — and in at least one case, a reported $2m payment

Don't give trump any ideas.

He would love this part too.

"Security experts warn Iranian approval does not guarantee safety, noting IRGC factions could still delay or seize vessels despite clearance"

[crazy canuck]

I think "escalation" slightly depends on your perspective. From a global and, particularly a Western, one then this is escalating as it attacks infrastructure, energy and the global economy.

From an Iranian - and I do keep going back to this - the day one attack by Israel and the US was to militarily assassinate their head of state. To an extent that may just be the American way of war - shock and awe, massive overwhelming use of power (because that is always America's advantage) - but I think it means that for Iran this kind of started at 100.

Their goal following that, I think fairly understandably, seems to be to try to get into a position where that cannot happen again. They know the US and Israel are well defended so they can't do the very big attack - they need to ramp it up to wear down defences, exhaust opponents etc. And the one thing they can more easily escalate is the global economy (they can also try to increase the pain on US allies in the region). They're escalating up and down within that - but I do think that first strike is the context for that.

Yeah, some might even say this is an asymmetrical war