Iran War?

[Jacob]

I think whatever the Kurdd may do or not do, they will price in the risk of American perfidy

[Richard Hakluyt]

Trump has said that the USA will escort vessels through the Straits of Hormuz and offer insurance guarantees.

Very nice of him I'm sure, more American tax dollars at work.

I'm interested in the extent to which a decapitated but furious Iran can keep the straits closed to maritime traffic. They have a lot of relatively cheap drones and missiles and decapitation has left fanatic IRGC colonels and what have you to their own devices. I have no feel for this myself, maybe a languishite with military experience (grumbler    ) might have some idea?

[Legbiter]

Periscope footage of an Iranian frigate being torpedoed by a US sub off the coast of Sri Lanka.

https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/2029195088404893869

[grumbler]

Trump has said that the USA will escort vessels through the Straits of Hormuz and offer insurance guarantees.

Very nice of him I'm sure, more American tax dollars at work.

I'm interested in the extent to which a decapitated but furious Iran can keep the straits closed to maritime traffic. They have a lot of relatively cheap drones and missiles and decapitation has left fanatic IRGC colonels and what have you to their own devices. I have no feel for this myself, maybe a languishite with military experience (grumbler    ) might have some idea?

There are ways to defend against small numbers of cheap drones, so defending the straits would be pretty effective, but it wouldn't be foolproof and just a few hits would scare off merchant traffic, insurance guarantees be damned.

[mongers]

So lets assume this isn't a disaster and the Iranian people eventually benefit from a regime change, that begs the question 'Who's next' for this emboldened trump FP cult?


Which country, it's people and the leadership are next?

And the one after that?

Which could be the first Western democracy to be attacked?

[crazy canuck]

He already threatened to attack Greenland and annex Canada, so those seem the most likely

But your starting scenario is improbable.  Iran is not ending anytime soon and definitely not peacefully.  It seems clear now that the Trumpists thought it would be a re-run of Venezuela. And they have no plan for ending what they have unleashed.

[mongers]

He already threatened to attack Greenland and annex Canada, so those seem the most likely

But your starting scenario is improbable.  Iran is not ending anytime soon and definitely not peacefully.  It seems clear now that the Trumpists thought it would be a re-run of Venezuela. And they have no plan for ending what they have unleashed.

CC, you're probably right about the outcome not being the pretty picture painted by them, but they can still leave it in a mess, declare some form of victory and target the next country?

[Sheilbh]

So lets assume this isn't a disaster and the Iranian people eventually benefit from a regime change, that begs the question 'Who's next' for this emboldened trump FP cult?


Which country, it's people and the leadership are next?

And the one after that?

Which could be the first Western democracy to be attacked?

Cuba is next.

[Syt]

A local child near an unexploded Iranian missile that landed in Rojava's (northeast Syria) Qamishli on March 4, 2026. Photo: AP

[Maladict]

Amazing how much ballistic missiles still look like the V2

[Valmy]

Well we are currently attacking Ecuador so...

[Legbiter]

NATO air defenses shot down a ballistic missile heading towards Turkey (Incirlik air base). NATO article five activation is not far off.

[Syt]

Well we are currently attacking Ecuador so...

Well, the Ecuadorian pres seems to be friendly with Trump, and it appears to be a cooperation against evil narco-terrorists?

If there are still historians in 50 or 100 years, piecing together a picture of this chaotic period will be a challenge.

[Syt]

From Faux News:

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/hegseth-says-leader-behind-effort-assassinate-trump-has-been-hunted-down-killed-iran

Hegseth says the leader behind effort to assassinate Trump has been 'hunted down and killed' in Iran

'Iran tried to kill President Trump and President Trump got the last laugh,' Hegseth said

War Secretary Pete Hegseth said Wednesday that an Iranian leader behind a unit that attempted to assassinate President Trump has been killed in Iran amid Operation Epic Fury.

"The leader of the unit that attempted to assassinate Trump has been hunted down and killed," Hegseth said during a press conference Wednesday morning.

"Iran tried to kill President Trump and President Trump got the last laugh," Hegseth continued. "Now, this is not a 'mission accomplished' situation. This is simply a reality check."

In 2024, Iran-linked actors attempted to arrange an assassination plot to take out the president. Iran has previously threatened to assassinate Trump following the 2020 killing of Iranian Gen. Qasem Soleimani.

In 2022, an Iranian video depicted an assassination attempt on Trump while he played golf.

U.S. officials confirmed earlier this week that strikes on Iran, which began Saturday, killed Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Trump reflected on Khamenei's death in a call to ABC News' Jonathan Karl earlier this week, saying: "I got him before he got me."

"They tried twice," Trump continued, referring to Iran's previous attempts on his life. "Well, I got him first."

Meanwhile, Hegseth, on Wednesday said the combination of U.S. and Israeli intelligence and combat power "will control Iran and will control it soon."

"America is winning decisively, devastatingly and without mercy," Hegseth said.

[Jacob]

NATO air defenses shot down a ballistic missile heading towards Turkey (Incirlik air base). NATO article five activation is not far off.

It's an interesting situation for sure.

On the face of it, I'd think a lot of NATO countries would be pretty reluctant to support Trump's Iran adventure for a wide number of reasons.

... but if Iran lashes out hard at NATO, the non-US allies may have some choices to make.