What can we expect to happen next?

[Barrister]

When was the last time a global war started in the mid-east?

It's been a risk for decades - but that it actually happened?  I'm struggling to think of something since the Crusades.

Even WWI - which did take place in part in the Middle East's Ottoman territories - did not start there.

Edit: I could (as always) be wrong - I just can't think of anything else.

[Zanza]

Thankfully the number of past global wars is not statistically significant, so we can hardly assume that history can tell us much about where the next global war will break out.

[Barrister]

Thankfully the number of past global wars is not statistically significant, so we can hardly assume that history can tell us much about where the next global war will break out.

How many "global wars" have their been?

WWI
WWII
(of course)

beyond that though - I don't think any way has literally involved the entire earth.  So lets just think of wars that involved multiple continents?

Napoleonic Wars
Seven Years War
Mongol conquests
Crusades

Global War on Terror?



So I mean a global war breaking out because of the middle east is more likely than one because of South America, but I still don't know if it's a likely flashpoint.

[Valmy]

The Middle East was the subject and battlefield for dozens and dozens of major multi-continental wars going back to the Bronze Age. Not sure what you are getting at there BB.

[HVC]

Never forget Kadesh!

[jimmy olsen]

Global warming wiping out a city. One wet bulb day from killing five digits in Pakistan or India.

[PDH]

What will happen?

Things will get shittier, in waves of shit that keep on coming.  There will be no end to the shit cycle.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Global warming wiping out a city. One wet bulb day from killing five digits in Pakistan or India.

Climate change is the easy go to for all many disasters nowadays, even when overpopulation, bad infrastructure, corruption or just human error are just as valid a reason.

[Valmy]

Global warming wiping out a city. One wet bulb day from killing five digits in Pakistan or India.

Climate change is the easy go to for all many disasters nowadays, even when overpopulation, bad infrastructure, corruption or just human error are just as valid a reason.

Sure. Obviously only weather disasters that have a clear link to rising temperatures would be the only ones that would qualify for climate change. Not sure how overpopulation, bad infrastructure, corruption, or human error would do that...I mean besides their contribution to climate change.

[viper37]

Time for an appropriately gloomy poll. Which of the above do you think will happen first?

I had 'breakup of NATO' and 'breakup of EU' listed too at first, but they hit a little too close to home. 

Global conflict in the Middle East.

Iran has attacked a Canadian citizen so it's serious now.  j/k


Raz posted an opinion piece to the effect that Israel sees itself on an holy mission to rid the Middle East of all Evil and the new US administration certainly wants to teach Iran a lesson.

Missile strikes is a very real possibility.  Some botched operation leading to the death of US soldiers by the incompetence of this administration.  Rise in Iran sponsored terrorism.  More retaliation. 
Arab citizens are driven by the religious fervor or radical cleric join in a holy crusade. Israel finds a pretext to attack another nation.  War finally erupts with other nations engulfed even if they wanted to stay out of it.

Meanwhile, Ukraine is betrayed by the US after the promise of new weapons shipments and peace settlements, Russia gets new support from China and North Korea, crush the country and starts an aggressive move toward another NATO country, likely Poland.  US does nothing.  Europe has to fight alone and is not ready for WW3.  US/President Trump betrays intelligence secret to Russia and North Korea.

[jimmy olsen]

Global warming wiping out a city. One wet bulb day from killing five digits in Pakistan or India.

Climate change is the easy go to for all many disasters nowadays, even when overpopulation, bad infrastructure, corruption or just human error are just as valid a reason.

High temperature, high humidity conditions can kill anyone without access to air conditioning.

https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/how-is-climate-change-driving-dangerous-wet-bulb-temperatures-2023-08-09/

[HVC]

But a whole city?

[Grey Fox]

I guess no one had SK Presidential Coup on their bingo card.

[Valmy]

SK traditionally had an authoritarian streak until recently. Guess they want to go back to their old tricks.

[HVC]

SK traditionally had an authoritarian streak until recently. Guess they want to go back to their old tricks.

They were also super poor. But I get economic collapse is a good way to increase birth rates, so there's that going for it.