What can we expect to happen next?

[Maladict]

Time for an appropriately gloomy poll. Which of the above do you think will happen first?

I had 'breakup of NATO' and 'breakup of EU' listed too at first, but they hit a little too close to home. 

[celedhring]

Taiwan still seems a few years away, so I voted the Balkans. The whole situation in Kosovo has been heating up for a while now.

I don't think it will lead to global conflict though.

[Grey Fox]

TSMC will selfdestroy it's facilities to keep it out of China's hand.

[mongers]

I went with denoation of a nuclear weapon, a silver-lining of which might be to sober 'us' up a bit?

[DGuller]

The Middle East is always a safe choice.  Iran has been almost in open warfare already, and that was with Biden.  Not hard to imagine things escalating further, especially if the hardliners in Israel perceive a limited time opportunity to change facts on the ground in a major way.

[crazy canuck]

Hasn't a global conflict already started in the M/E?

[PJL]

Hasn't a global conflict already started in the M/E?

I'd argue it started with Ukraine. Israel/Gaza is merely the second front. Once Taiwan gets invaded the war will start officially.

[crazy canuck]

Hasn't a global conflict already started in the M/E?

I'd argue it started with Ukraine. Israel/Gaza is merely the second front. Once Taiwan gets invaded the war will start officially.

Interesting theory, what is the connection between the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the hostilities in the M/E?

I suppose one link is the Russian support of the Houthis.

[Grey Fox]

Hasn't a global conflict already started in the M/E?

I'd argue it started with Ukraine. Israel/Gaza is merely the second front. Once Taiwan gets invaded the war will start officially.

Interesting theory, what is the connection between the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the hostilities in the M/E?

I suppose one link is the Russian support of the Houthis.

The Iran-Russia axis with Chinese support for the Xi Multiple Pole world they so desperately want to usher in.

[crazy canuck]

Yeah, I can see that.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Hasn't a global conflict already started in the M/E?

I'd argue it started with Ukraine. Israel/Gaza is merely the second front. Once Taiwan gets invaded the war will start officially.

Interesting theory, what is the connection between the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the hostilities in the M/E?

I suppose one link is the Russian support of the Houthis.

Hamas bigwigs were also in Moscow just before, during or shortly after October 7th, iirc. A timing which basically signalled that Putin knew about it given that he was the biggest beneficiary of the shift in focus of attention of western media and politics.

[Josquius]

With Taiwan it's about too windows overlapping.
Ukraine revealed the US to be unprepared... And trump coming in will make that even worse.
But at the same time China isn't prepared yet either. Ukraine also showed the vulnerability of navies and dominance of drones.

I suppose with Xis age too, the late Trump era is possible there....

[Sheilbh]

Taiwan still seems a few years away, so I voted the Balkans. The whole situation in Kosovo has been heating up for a while now.

I don't think it will lead to global conflict though.

I worry about Bosnia - I could definitely see Srpska trying to declare independence and the breakup of Bosnia. And there are some very pro-Serb types around Trump.

I'm reminded of a friend who worked in Bosnia and, working for an international organisation went every year for the international community's commemoration of Srebenica. Srebenica is in Srpska and he said that on the drive there from Sarajevo most houses would put up a picture of Radovan Karadzic in the windows. And that the expectation of basically everyone in the international community that it was a matter of when not if there'd be another civil war.

On Taiwan I remember reading that US figures thought it would happen in 2027 - don't know if that still holds.

The Middle East is always a safe choice.  Iran has been almost in open warfare already, and that was with Biden.  Not hard to imagine things escalating further, especially if the hardliners in Israel perceive a limited time opportunity to change facts on the ground in a major way.

But when's the last time the Middle East sparked conflict anywhere else? Perhaps part of the reason it has so much conflict is precisely that it is important but not that important to everyone else? Central but peripheral?

I always worry about nukes. I think it's crazy how little we think/worry about them compared to other existential threats. I feel like the risk of humans using a massive destructive force we already have shouldn't be under-rated.

Although good to see Biden and Xi commit to not use AI in their nuclear weapons systems

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Although good to see Biden and Xi commit to not use AI in their nuclear weapons systems

I wouldn't trust the Chinese to keep their word. The CCP lies about everything