How long will Trump reign?

[HVC]

Roosevelt in our time. FDR saved us from nazis and Trump with save us from the illegals/criminals/dems.

[Admiral Yi]

Roosevelt in our time. FDR saved us from nazis and Trump with save us from the illegals/criminals/dems.

You do know the 22nd was passed in response to FDR, right?

[HVC]

Roosevelt in our time. FDR saved us from nazis and Trump with save us from the illegals/criminals/dems.

You do know the 22nd was passed in response to FDR, right?

Exactly, roll back to clock to before the mistake was made

[DGuller]

I think one argument not being mentioned is that the 22nd amendment was ratified a few years after Trump was born, and so Trump was grandfathered.

[Syt]

So, how long after inauguration until the first prominent member of Trump's staff is fired/resigns?

[Josquius]

So, how long after inauguration until the first prominent member of Trump's staff is fired/resigns?

I'd say the chances are near 100% the answer will be a negative number.

[grumbler]

I think one argument not being mentioned is that the 22nd amendment was ratified a few years after Trump was born, and so Trump was grandfathered.

If he was actually president when the 22nd came into force, he was grandfathered.  Otherwise, not.

[DGuller]

I think one argument not being mentioned is that the 22nd amendment was ratified a few years after Trump was born, and so Trump was grandfathered.

If he was actually president when the 22nd came into force, he was grandfathered.  Otherwise, not.

If you go by what it says, sure.   

[crazy canuck]

This can't be emphasized enough: no constitution, including the US constitution, can function properly without a political class willing to conform to norms of conduct, an informed populace to force politician to abide by norms on the threat of expulsion from office, and as a last resort, a principled court system ready and willing to police violations of constitutional norms.

The US now lacks all three. The 22nd amendment is just a scrap of paper; by itself it does nothing.

That's been abundantly clear since the first spin on this merry-go-round.  Having enough people around, in the right places, with the will to conform to law and norms is what kept January 6 and the whole election fraud sham from succeeding four years ago.  But just barely.  It's clear the CHristofascist bloc learned from that and has worked to remove those people, and the people of the United States went right along with it.  Hence my pessimistic assumption about this term.

I still think finagling a way for Vance to take over for Trump and sidestep the 22nd for at least one more election is the more likely path for them, though.  I'm not sure they'll be able to swing "blatant disregard for the Constitution" in just four years.  I'm sure they're gonna test the limits over this term, though.  Shit, maybe I;m being too optimistic and they will be able to work all the way there by 2028.

I am more of a pessimist. Testing the limits of your constitution is going to commence on day one.  By the time Trump ends his first term, this discussion may seem quaint.

[crazy canuck]

Turns out I was overly optimistic.  Blatant disregard for your constitution has already begun. Reporting from the New York Times:

Over the weekend, Mr. Trump insisted on social media that Republicans select a new Senate majority leader willing to call recesses during which he could unilaterally appoint personnel, a process that would allow him to sidestep the confirmation process. His allies immediately applauded the idea, intensifying pressure on G.O.P. lawmakers to acquiesce.

The demand to weaken checks and balances and take for himself some of the legislative branch's usual power underscored Mr. Trump's authoritarian impulses. While there is no obvious legal obstacle to Mr. Trump's request, it would be an extraordinary violation of constitutional norms. There is no historical precedent for a deliberate and wholesale abandonment by the Senate of its function of deciding whether to confirm or reject the president's choices to bestow with government power

[Syt]

Ah, following the letter of the law, but not the intent of the law. Always beautiful.

(A commenter said that this rule may have made sense at a time when senators had to travel to DC on horseback or early steam trains, but it seems outdated and anachronistic these days ... of course I assume it's one of those things that seem outdated, but it's never come up as an issue, so why change?)

[DGuller]

I'm hoping that personal ambitions would get in the way of such norm busting.  What personal interest do Senators have in surrendering their power to a lame duck president?  For that matter, what interest does the Supreme Court have to be a rubber stamp?  Exercising discretion is what gives you the power boner.

[Grey Fox]

I'm hoping that personal ambitions would get in the way of such norm busting.  What personal interest do Senators have in surrendering their power to a lame duck president?  For that matter, what interest does the Supreme Court have to be a rubber stamp?  Exercising discretion is what gives you the power boner.

Because they are in a cult.

[crazy canuck]

I'm hoping that personal ambitions would get in the way of such norm busting.  What personal interest do Senators have in surrendering their power to a lame duck president?  For that matter, what interest does the Supreme Court have to be a rubber stamp?  Exercising discretion is what gives you the power boner.

The Senators don't want to get primaried. 

[Sheilbh]

So, how long after inauguration until the first prominent member of Trump's staff is fired/resigns?

Wasn't Chris Christie fired as head of the transition before the inauguration last time?

I think there may actually be less turnover because I think there's less chance of existing party people/people with their own ideas trying to manage Trump. I think there's a cadre of loyalists who know what Trump wants and what working for him means who are ready to go, which didn't exist in 2016 when you had someone like Reince Priebus as Chief of Staff.

Whereas, say, Susan Wiles came up through GOP politics (Jack Kemp, Jon Huntmsan) but has been in Trumpworld since 2016. I think there's less of the old GOP around to try and manage Trump and more people who know exactly what to expect.