How long will Trump reign?

[Valmy]

I think there is a lot of wishful groupthink about Trump's physical and mental condition.  At his age anything can develop that would take his life, but at the same time odds are that nothing will.

Is it wishful thinking? Dude is old.

But at the same time he is the President so gets top medical care. He probably would have died of COVID years ago if he didn't have that. I fully expect him to live through his term.

[saskganesh]

I made a wish and voted 2 years. He'll have a heart attack riding a golf cart.

[Tamas]

Yeah he'll easily live 4 more years with Presidential medical care. And then I expect he'll run again unless he manages to (self-)convincingly pardon himself of any and all crimes.

If he doesn't run, there'll be massive ass-licking contests to be ordained as his official heir, he'll be able to destroy GOP candidates with single Tweets.

[DGuller]

I think there is a lot of wishful groupthink about Trump's physical and mental condition.  At his age anything can develop that would take his life, but at the same time odds are that nothing will.

Is it wishful thinking? Dude is old.

But at the same time he is the President so gets top medical care. He probably would have died of COVID years ago if he didn't have that. I fully expect him to live through his term.

What I mean is that his wellbeing gets played down because people wish it to be true.  There was talk of him having dementia during his first term, but he still seems to be doing fine, by his standards anyway.  It doesn't happen just with Trump either, remember how Putin's days were supposed to be numbered in 2022?  They may be, but the numbers appear to be much higher than hoped for.

[Josquius]

There's more than just death could remove trump from power.
If the dementia comments are true and he hits a steep decline...
The best medical care in the world will be good at keeping someone breathing but there's some things that are pretty hard to tackle even then..

[DGuller]

I'm deliberately uninformed on all matters Trump, but I have a hard time believing that dementia is in any way an issue for him.  Unlike Biden or Harris, he talks, and talks, and talks, and also unlike them, he doesn't care to stay on script.  That gives a large body of evidence as to how his brain works.  And while his brain by all accounts appears to be stupid, it doesn't appear to be diseased.

Sure, there will always be clips of him jerking off his microphone or something, but the dude talks all the time.  If he made a telling slip like Biden did about Mitterrand, then I'm sure a clip of it would get my attention even if I try hard not to pay any.  Memory resetting itself to where it was decades ago is an alarming sign, saying something incoherent is something that Trump was doing for 78 years.

[DGuller]

In fact, I think writing off Trump is suffering from dementia has been one of many mistakes his opponents made while grappling with how to deal with him.  What they're doing is setting the expectations very low, something that Trump himself would've loved to do.  When Trump goes on a podcast for a couple of hours and doesn't sound unwell at all, it makes him look better than he deserves, and it makes his opponents look deranged and desperate.

[The Minsky Moment]

If he made a telling slip like Biden did about Mitterrand, then I'm sure a clip of it would get my attention even if I try hard not to pay any.  .

There are endless clips of Trump confusing people and places; just from the last month of the campaign alone, he repeatedly got confused about what state he was in.  The issue with Trump is that there are so many examples of aberrant behavior that any individual example just flies under the radar.

Watch an example of a Trump speech from the 2015-16 primary season and then one from the last month of the 2024 campaign.  There has been a noticeable deterioration.

[Habbaku]

Yeah he'll easily live 4 more years with Presidential medical care. And then I expect he'll run again unless he manages to (self-)convincingly pardon himself of any and all crimes.

If he doesn't run, there'll be massive ass-licking contests to be ordained as his official heir, he'll be able to destroy GOP candidates with single Tweets.

Why do you think he'll run again in 4 years? By what mechanism do you think that's going to be made possible?

[Tamas]

Yeah he'll easily live 4 more years with Presidential medical care. And then I expect he'll run again unless he manages to (self-)convincingly pardon himself of any and all crimes.

If he doesn't run, there'll be massive ass-licking contests to be ordained as his official heir, he'll be able to destroy GOP candidates with single Tweets.

Why do you think he'll run again in 4 years? By what mechanism do you think that's going to be made possible?

Who is going to stop him?

[Habbaku]

   https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twenty-second_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution

[The Minsky Moment]

Why do you think he'll run again in 4 years? By what mechanism do you think that's going to be made possible?

The Supreme Court already ruled in Trump v. Anderson that states cannot police constitutional restrictions on the right of persons to run for federal office.  So nothing will stop Trump from declaring himself a candidate, obtaining the nomination of the GOP and then getting placed on the ballots of all 50 states.  The only way to enforce the 22nd amendment would be an Act of Congress.  Which of course Trump as President would have to sign to become law. Which really means you'd need two-third of both Houses to override a veto and enforce the 22nd Amendment.  And that will never happen.  There is no check. 

[The Minsky Moment]

This can't be emphasized enough: no constitution, including the US constitution, can function properly without a political class willing to conform to norms of conduct, an informed populace to force politician to abide by norms on the threat of expulsion from office, and as a last resort, a principled court system ready and willing to police violations of constitutional norms.

The US now lacks all three. The 22nd amendment is just a scrap of paper; by itself it does nothing.

[HVC]

Americans place too much trust in the constitution. Without someone enforcing it, it's just a piece of paper.


That being said, unlike some others I don't think Trump will usher in fascist police state over night  It's more gradual than that. He, or at least those around him, will keep eroding the institutions.

[Baron von Schtinkenbutt]

This can't be emphasized enough: no constitution, including the US constitution, can function properly without a political class willing to conform to norms of conduct, an informed populace to force politician to abide by norms on the threat of expulsion from office, and as a last resort, a principled court system ready and willing to police violations of constitutional norms.

The US now lacks all three. The 22nd amendment is just a scrap of paper; by itself it does nothing.

That's been abundantly clear since the first spin on this merry-go-round.  Having enough people around, in the right places, with the will to conform to law and norms is what kept January 6 and the whole election fraud sham from succeeding four years ago.  But just barely.  It's clear the CHristofascist bloc learned from that and has worked to remove those people, and the people of the United States went right along with it.  Hence my pessimistic assumption about this term.

I still think finagling a way for Vance to take over for Trump and sidestep the 22nd for at least one more election is the more likely path for them, though.  I'm not sure they'll be able to swing "blatant disregard for the Constitution" in just four years.  I'm sure they're gonna test the limits over this term, though.  Shit, maybe I;m being too optimistic and they will be able to work all the way there by 2028.