How long will Trump reign?

[DGuller]

Here's another data point:  the last three presidents that died were aged 94, 93, and 93.  And yeah, there is another one that stubbornly refuses to die, but will definitely not lower the average when he does finally do it.

[The Minsky Moment]

DG, when in life are those odd occasions that are not like a game of poker?   

The ones that are like blackjack

[Barrister]

Here's another data point:  the last three presidents that died were aged 94, 93, and 93.  And yeah, there is another one that stubbornly refuses to die, but will definitely not lower the average when he does finally do it.

Coin flip fallacy.

Lyndon Johnson died at age 64 - but then again he was a smoker.  But yet again - we have no idea what Trump's health is like.  He doesn't look good to me.

Heck - JFK died at the age of 46.

[DGuller]

Just proves my point.  When SS fucks up, and the president takes a bullet, all take a bullet that's survivable, but only the Democratic one takes another one that's most definitely not survivable.

[Barrister]

Just proves my point.  When SS fucks up, and the president takes a bullet, all take a bullet that's survivable, but only the Democratic one takes another one that's most definitely not survivable.

According to Wiki there have been multiple attempts on every President since JFK.  Some obviously closer to success than others.  My understanding is also that the SS really tightened things up after Kennedy.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_presidential_assassination_attempts_and_plots

[Baron von Schtinkenbutt]

Why? That sounds like a vast overestimation of Vance's capabilities. Dude's a spazz.

It's not about Vance per se, but about the machine behind he and Trump.  I don't think Trump will be in power past this term because I don't think the Christofacist power grab (if it happens) will be used to his benefit.  Rather, they'll use Vance as the slot-filler.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Weren't you the very one who talked about the coin flip fallacy?

Plus 2000 was a long time ago, and it's really hard to game out what a President Gore would have done post 9/11.  I don't think it's a guarantee the outcome would have been any better.

I did, hence my entire last paragraph.  I may understand statistics very well, but I'm still human, and presently a rather despondent human at that.

Understandable but the opposite of what we need. Despondent, defeatist and the resulting apathy are what those types want because it leads to a MN electorate that is depoliticised. And that gives autocrats a free hand, or an even freer hand than they already have.

But it's understandable like I said. At least you've got the ocean between you and trumps biggest Russian fan.

[Savonarola]

3500 years; he'll merge with the worms that ate RFK Jr.'s brain and become the god-emperor of the known universe.

[crazy canuck]

Why? That sounds like a vast overestimation of Vance's capabilities. Dude's a spazz.

It's not about Vance per se, but about the machine behind he and Trump.  I don't think Trump will be in power past this term because I don't think the Christofacist power grab (if it happens) will be used to his benefit.  Rather, they'll use Vance as the slot-filler.

Yep

[Barrister]

3500 years; he'll merge with the worms that ate RFK Jr.'s brain and become the god-emperor of the known universe.

[Baron von Schtinkenbutt]

3500 years; he'll merge with the worms that ate RFK Jr.'s brain and become the god-emperor of the known universe.

Are you telling me I need to try to slog through that book now so I can understand what we're in for?

[Tonitrus]

Just proves my point.  When SS fucks up, and the president takes a bullet, all take a bullet that's survivable, but only the Democratic one takes another one that's most definitely not survivable.

According to Wiki there have been multiple attempts on every President since JFK.  Some obviously closer to success than others.  My understanding is also that the SS really tightened things up after Kennedy.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_presidential_assassination_attempts_and_plots

And related to that theme...perhaps another poll should be how soon we go to war with Iran after Trump takes office...

https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/08/politics/doj-charges-three-iranian-plot-to-kill-donald-trump/index.html

[saskganesh]

I think there is a lot of wishful groupthink about Trump's physical and mental condition.  At his age anything can develop that would take his life, but at the same time odds are that nothing will.

Actuarily, what are the chances of a 78 year old male (non-smoker, non-drinker, but overweight and not active) will die in the next 4 year years?

you forgot to mention the cocaine and pills.

[Norgy]

Jimmy Carter is still around. He just didn't coup his way to eternal office because he's such a Democrat.

If you can call it being "around".

He's not exactly swinging his hammer for Habitat for Humanity these days.  He recently turned 100 and this pictures from the time had him looking like he's 3/4 of the way into the grave.

Still my favourite American president along with FDR.

Trump's reign has started in all the wrong ways with "in four years you do not have to vote again" and some really strange behaviour.

That he managed to pack the supreme court is ominious at best, catastropic at worst.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

He'll reign too long not to fuck thi gs up and not long enough to suffer the consequences