Working From Home

[Jacob]

Recently it seemed that there was a movement back into the office, now that we're post-Covid (or at least post-Covid-as-a-major-public-concern).

According to this article, the return to office numbers have flatlined and we (or rather the US) is holding steady at a "new normal".

Return to office is 'dead,' Stanford economist says. Here's why

KEY POINTS

• The share of days worked from home ballooned in the Covid-19 pandemic's early days, and subsequently declined through 2022.
• However, it has flatlined in 2023, suggesting more companies aren't calling employees back to the office.
• Long-term technological and demographic trends suggest the prevalence of remote work may grow in 2025 and beyond.

The share of workers being called back to the office has flatlined, suggesting the pandemic-era phenomenon of widespread remote work has become a permanent fixture of the U.S. labor market, economists said.

"Return to the office is dead," Nick Bloom, an economics professor at Stanford University and expert on the work-from-home revolution, wrote this week.

In May 2020 — the early days of the Covid-19 pandemic — 61.5% of paid, full workdays were from home, according to the Survey of Working Arrangements and Attitudes. That share fell by about half through 2022 as companies called employees back to in-person work.

However, the story has changed in 2023.

The share of paid work-from-home days has been "totally flat" this year, hovering around 28%, said Bloom in an interview with CNBC. That's still four times greater than the 7% pre-pandemic level. The U.S. Census Bureau's Household Pulse Survey shows a similar trend, he said.

[GRAPH HERE - go to link to see it]

Meanwhile, Kastle data that measures the frequency of employee office swipe-ins shows that office occupancy in the 10 largest U.S. metro areas has flatlined at around 50% in 2023, Bloom said.

"We are three and a half years in, and we're totally stuck," Bloom said of remote work. "It would take something as extreme as the pandemic to unstick it."

Why remote work has had staying power

The initial surge of remote work was spurred by Covid-19 lockdowns and stay-at-home orders.

But many workers came to like the arrangement. Among the primary benefits: no commute, flexible work schedules and less time getting ready for work, according to WFH Research.

The trend has been reinforced by a hot job market in the U.S. since early 2021, giving workers unprecedented leverage. If a worker didn't like their company benefits, odds were good they could quit and get a job with better work arrangements and pay elsewhere.

Research has shown that the typical worker equates the value of working from home to an 8% pay raise.

However, the work-from-home trend isn't just a perk for workers. It has been a profitable arrangement for many companies, economists said.

Among the potential benefits: reduced costs for real estate, wages and recruitment, better worker retention and an expanded pool from which to recruit talent. Meanwhile, worker productivity hasn't suffered, Bloom said.

"What makes companies money tends to stick," he said.

Remote policies show 'incredible diversity'

These days, most remote work is done as part of a "hybrid" arrangement, with some days at home and the rest in the office. About 47% of employees who can work from home were hybrid as of October 2023, while 19% are full-time remote and 34% are fully on site, according to WFH Research.

About 11% of online job postings today advertise positions as fully remote or hybrid, versus 3% before the pandemic, said Julia Pollak, chief economist at ZipRecruiter.

While remote work is the labor market's new normal, there's significant variety from company to company, Pollak said.

Why remote work will likely increase beyond 2025

While it's unlikely that the prevalence of remote work will ever decline to its pre-pandemic level, it's possible that a U.S. recession — and a weaker job market — may cause it to slide a bit, economists said.

"Employers say the biggest benefit of remote work is retention," Pollak said. In a labor market with more slack, "retention gets much easier."

However, since work-from-home arrangements also save companies money, it's likely a severe recession would be necessary to see a meaningful decline, Bloom said.

Long-term trends suggest the share of employees who work from home is only likely to grow from here, possibly starting in 2025, Bloom said.

For example, improving technology will make remote work easier to facilitate, Bloom said. Younger firms and CEOs also tend to be more enthusiastic about hybrid work arrangements, meaning they'll get more popular over time as existing business heads retire, he added.

Anecdotally, my place of work is staying the course full flexibility on remote work. My wife's place of work seems to have settled on hybrid (with mandatory days in the office).

I few months ago I did hear a Microsoft Executive (in games) opine that the major tech companies were going to push for a return to office in the next little while.

It'll be interesting to see how it plays out.

[viper37]

There's a lot of resistance to this from employers.
Amazon is pressuring its employees to return to the office.  No promotions if they don't get back.
Zoom has ordered employees back to the office.
In Quebec, Mouvement Desjardins (biggest financial institution) has ordered most of its staff back to the office 3 days a week.

Like I said, lots of resistance everywhere.

[garbon]

There's a lot of resistance to this from employers.
Amazon is pressuring its employees to return to the office.  No promotions if they don't get back.
Zoom has ordered employees back to the office.
In Quebec, Mouvement Desjardins (biggest financial institution) has ordered most of its staff back to the office 3 days a week.

Like I said, lots of resistance everywhere.

The article mentions most places offering remote work have gone to a hybrid model. So at least your example from Quebec would be right in line with what the article has said is the new normal.

[Josquius]

As I've said before, in office work is "better" absent of all else, however it is also less popular with employees.

Because in office work is less desirable this means in office work loses out when it comes to recruitment. Remote companies have a much bigger pool to recruit from - both locals who prefer remote and people from all around the country.

As such it's no surprise really popular employers that have people queuing up to work for them would be pushing for more in office work however that there would be a general remote trend.

For myself for I currently work for an employer 6 hours+ away. I've never been to the office. Covid has been very good for me in letting me literally double my income (though ja, high inflation means not really) and widen my employment prospects by opening up jobs in the south without having to actually live there.
My team is pure remote though various other teams have different sorts of hybrid

[Syt]

In our company we're three days in the office, with Monday/Friday being WFH. (Though some people do come to the office, esp. on Mondays.)

Over the past year our company owners wanted to get people back 4 days a week, but it caused so much pushback that our CEO kept stalling out the owners.

During a recent team meeting he started with, "OK, from next year on, we really have to move back to four days at the office." There was a very muted reaction before he said, "Sorry, guys, just joking." I don't think anyone found that funny.

[Tamas]

As I've said before, in office work is "better" absent of all else, however it is also less popular with employees.

Because in office work is less desirable this means in office work loses out when it comes to recruitment. Remote companies have a much bigger pool to recruit from - both locals who prefer remote and people from all around the country.

As such it's no surprise really popular employers that have people queuing up to work for them would be pushing for more in office work however that there would be a general remote trend.

For myself for I currently work for an employer 6 hours+ away. I've never been to the office. Covid has been very good for me in letting me literally double my income (though ja, high inflation means not really) and widen my employment prospects by opening up jobs in the south without having to actually live there.
My team is pure remote though various other teams have different sorts of hybrid

I guess if the next recession comes soon enough that might still reverse the trend but I think that's unlikely.

And yeah obviously in office work is much preferred to unemployment, and there could be a high enough difference between offers for me to choose in-office work but it would have to be substantial because having to go to the office absolutely sucks.

[Grey Fox]

My workplace is weird.

We have to go 4 days in the office but they are no hour requirements for R&D members. Therefore, I stay there between 2 to 5h on the days I have to go the office.

I don't mind it as much as I thought I would.

[Habbaku]

I've been fully remote for going on 3 years now. I can't go back and will riot and act like a big baby if forced.

At this point, I'm not sure I'd even consider a non-remote job unless the pay were close to double.

[DGuller]

I think companies have to decide on one or the other.  Either everyone has to work at least a hybrid schedule, or almost no one is.  It's the worst of both worlds when half the team comes to the office and half the team doesn't:  you still have to use remote work tools for everything, and you don't get the intangible benefits of working in the office.

[PJL]

I work from home and it being the equivalent of an 8% pay rise as quoted in the article sounds about right. Certainly when factoring in public transport costs and the time value of money in getting there and back every day, I certainly don't miss the commute.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

We went from always in office to never in office to an agreed upon 1 day a week in the office. The reason being that seeing people face-to-face at least some of the time is a better than only seeing everyone via remote meetings.
Nowadays about half the team is between 2 and 4 days in office (depending on weather, kids being sick and direction of the wind as it were), mainly for the social contact. Exceptions are the people working on the other side of the country, and the french team (which is spread out over France)

Friday being the most popular WFH day.

So quite a lot of freedom there, which is a good thing.

That said: going to the office and seeing your collegues every so often is not a bad thing, imho. (dependent on how fun your team is, of course)

[Habbaku]

I work from home and it being the equivalent of an 8% pay rise as quoted in the article sounds about right. Certainly when factoring in public transport costs and the time value of money in getting there and back every day, I certainly don't miss the commute.

This is why I can't go back. Saving ~$50+ on gas each month, no wear and tear on the car, and not having to wake up an hour earlier just to commute 1 hour round-trip each day is an immense savings to me, both in money and sanity.

[Tamas]

I work from home and it being the equivalent of an 8% pay rise as quoted in the article sounds about right. Certainly when factoring in public transport costs and the time value of money in getting there and back every day, I certainly don't miss the commute.

This is why I can't go back. Saving ~$50+ on gas each month, no wear and tear on the car, and not having to wake up an hour earlier just to commute 1 hour round-trip each day is an immense savings to me, both in money and sanity.

Yep.

[Josquius]

Though I will say that I'm jealous of the young
It was a decade ago that being able to roll out of bed after 8 and live wherever I wanted that would have really saved me.

[viper37]

There's a lot of resistance to this from employers.
Amazon is pressuring its employees to return to the office.  No promotions if they don't get back.
Zoom has ordered employees back to the office.
In Quebec, Mouvement Desjardins (biggest financial institution) has ordered most of its staff back to the office 3 days a week.

Like I said, lots of resistance everywhere.

The article mentions most places offering remote work have gone to a hybrid model. So at least your example from Quebec would be right in line with what the article has said is the new normal.

It's problematic for a lot of people who moved far away from the city, escaping the eternal torments of Hell.

What I fear is that this is the first step to a full "back to the office" order.  There's a lot of pressure from chambers of commerce on the governments and industry to order such back to work orders because city centers are becoming deserted.