Israel-Hamas War 2023

[OttoVonBismarck]

I also think, and this will take longer to be felt--this undermines growing "Israel skepticism" among the left in the West--most importantly in the United States.

While I won't say the U.S. body politic had been shifted that far off its long term pro-Israel axis, I definitely was seeing more people open to the idea that while both sides have done bad things, and Israel certainly (and absolutely does) have a right to exist, many Israeli actions have made long term conflict guaranteed and helped violence and desperation grow among the Palestinians.

This nuance was leading to at least some light American skepticism of Israel's right wing and its behavior vis-a-vis Palestine.

Now, I think that rolls back, a lot. Westerners and Americans in particular don't like videos of Israeli women being dragged away by "evil masked Muslims", or pictures of dead civilians being paraded around on the street by a Muslim terrorist group. This is going to hurt any sort of American centric effort at questioning the long term Israel position on Palestine. It also very likely makes the few American Muslim politicians vulnerable to serious political blowback. For example if Ilhan Omar steps even slightly wrong right now she is going to become a pariah politically. All of this will play into the strong lobby in America that promotes unequivocal support of Israel no matter its actions.

This is all easier to do because of Hamas brutality.

While I won't pretend to be an expert in insurgent warfare, I see no scenario where a traditional armed insurgency ever beats the IDF, ever clears Israel out of the West Bank etc. This is a situation where peaceful opposition IMO was starting to grow support for Palestine in the West. I think that reverses tremendously now.

Like if there can ever be any form of success for the Palestine "movement", I think it relies on framing Israel as an apartheid State and putting international pressure on it akin to what was put on South Africa. Brutality from Hamas makes that much, much less likely.

Netanyahu's fairly unreasonable actions in the last few years, while they hadn't grown a ton of support for casting Israel as an apartheid state, I think were at least growing skepticism of some of Israel's behavior. I think a lot of that just melts away--at least in the United States, which in terms of protecting Israel from being "South Africa'd" is the most important player, since it has a UN Security council veto etc.

[Hamilcar]

Hezbollah so far has done nothing--it should be noted that a lot of saber rattling has been going on between Hezbollah and Israel of late, but not as much Hamas and Israel.

There are reports of first probing fire from Hezbollah positions.

Just checked and haven't seen this on any reputable sources.

Check again.

[Razgovory]

Tyr, Corbyn is gone.  You don't have to defend Hamas anymore.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Azerbaijan are Israeli allies and even beyond that I can't see how this makes sense.

muslim country removes non muslim presence from place. Azerbaijan and Israel being allies is irrelevant to that.

Gaza is over 99% Muslim. I've heard nothing to suggest getting rid of non Muslims is particularly high on their agenda.

it's all Hamas exists for.

Then why is this even happening considered they accomplished that long ago?
Seriously you have to think beyond this black and white view.

for hamas every jew living in 'Palestine' is one too many, and there's still one. So nothing has been accomplished yet.
Be less naive about that ideology

You're the naiive one here. You seem to think Hamas are comic book villains who seriously believe they can actually beat Israel in a war and chuck all the Jews into the sea, rather than just the rulers of a bantustan in the corner of the country.
There's absolutely no way they actually think they can get any ethnic cleansing of land outside gaza outside of this.

They're not comic book villains, they're actual villains who sincerely believe that it's their mission to eradicate the state of Israel and the jews living there. And after that: elsewhere.
That ideology is quite clear as to what the end goal for the world is.
Intent matters, regardless of wether or not the means are there.
So stop being an apologist for Evil.

[Hamilcar]

Israel is calling up "hundreds of thousands". Are they going to go in full force to Gaza? Deter Hezbollah? Or do getting ready for incoming Hezbollah attacks?

[OttoVonBismarck]

Hezbollah so far has done nothing--it should be noted that a lot of saber rattling has been going on between Hezbollah and Israel of late, but not as much Hamas and Israel.

There are reports of first probing fire from Hezbollah positions.

Just checked and haven't seen this on any reputable sources.

Check again.

I'm still monitoring Times of Israel's live feed, not sure who would be more reputable in this current fog of war—and they aren't reporting any organized Hezbollah involvement as yet.

[Caliga]

I'm seeing articles that Hezbollah is praising Hamas and saying their attack is OSSUM but nothing indicating they've started their own attacks.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Israel is calling up "hundreds of thousands". Are they going to go in full force to Gaza? Deter Hezbollah? Or do getting ready for incoming Hezbollah attacks?

Yes. This is not the beginning of an incursion, a round of attacks or etc. This is fully mobilized war. Yair Lapid (opposition), Bruno Gantz (opposition) and everyone in the Israeli Administration are talking about a "strategic" conflict and a lasting war. No one is even considering this ends with retaliatory strikes and IDF raids. This is the beginning of a lasting war.

[Jacob]

Just awful. This is terrible for the victims, and for future victims.

There are lots of things I don't understand about what happened and what the future holds.

What did Hamas try to achieve with this attack? I mean, beyond the obvious - to strike a terrible blow against the state of Israel and hurt Israelis. What do they expect to happen next? What their understanding of the strategic landscape, and how do they think this action will change it? How do they hope their actions will affect that landscape?

Who are the decision makers who pushed this forward? Is this driven by a grouping within Hamas trying to hang on to internal power in face of rivals by escalating and creating a crisis? Are they acting on instructions from internal sponsors, and if so what is that sponsor trying to achieve? Is it literally an attempt to conduct national suicide in a broadbased fit of eschatological religious fervour? Did they look at the strategical landscape and conclude that they were losing and this is a rational but high risk attempt at rearranging the pieces on the board somehow (and it what way)? Do they think that Putin is about to kick off WWIII and this is their play in that chaos? What did hope to achieve?

Is there one Putin-like individual who holds the power to organize this, or is it consensus based?

And what did they tell the various foot-soldiers carrying out the attack? Obviously "this will really hurt them and they deserve it", but was there some sort of "and after we hit them, this will happen" and if so what is that thing?

And on the other side... obviously Israel is going to unite and enact vengeance on the perpetrators. I realize this is still early times for Israel - as a government and as a people  they'll have to process the events and formulate a response - but what are they going to do? Where and how are they going to respond? What is going to provide enough of a sense of justice? Enough of a sense of security? What is the Israeli theory of victory going to be?

If any of you have thoughts on that - or links to credible analysts on this - please share.

[mongers]

Just awful. This is terrible for the victims, and for future victims.

There are lots of things I don't understand about what happened and what the future holds.

What did Hamas try to achieve with this attack? I mean, beyond the obvious - to strike a terrible blow against the state of Israel and hurt Israelis. What do they expect to happen next? What their understanding of the strategic landscape, and how do they think this action will change it? How do they hope their actions will affect that landscape?

Who are the decision makers who pushed this forward? Is this driven by a grouping within Hamas trying to hang on to internal power in face of rivals by escalating and creating a crisis? Are they acting on instructions from internal sponsors, and if so what is that sponsor trying to achieve? Is it literally an attempt to conduct national suicide in a broadbased fit of eschatological religious fervour? Did they look at the strategical landscape and conclude that they were losing and this is a rational but high risk attempt at rearranging the pieces on the board somehow (and it what way)? Do they think that Putin is about to kick off WWIII and this is their play in that chaos? What did hope to achieve?

Is there one Putin-like individual who holds the power to organize this, or is it consensus based?

And what did they tell the various foot-soldiers carrying out the attack? Obviously "this will really hurt them and they deserve it", but was there some sort of "and after we hit them, this will happen" and if so what is that thing?

And on the other side... obviously Israel is going to unite and enact vengeance on the perpetrators. I realize this is still early times for Israel - as a government and as a people  they'll have to process the events and formulate a response - but what are they going to do? Where and how are they going to respond? What is going to provide enough of a sense of justice? Enough of a sense of security? What is the Israeli theory of victory going to be?

If any of you have thoughts on that - or links to credible analysts on this - please share.

Jake, Fifteen question, too many?

 

I think it's best wait for it to develop more before attempting to provide to many answers.

[Razgovory]

There's video of Palestinians hauling away Israeli women and children.  The men were shouting a word that ISIS used for sex slaves.

[The Minsky Moment]

The international clout of the Palestinian cause has declined greatly as former partron regimes in the Arab world have moved to normalize relations with Israel.  This is a move out of desperation.  Hamas knows the correlation of forces; they know that such a vicious attack will unite a divided Israeli polity to bring overwhelming force against them.  Therefore that must be the point - to goad Israel into a brutal retaliation that will either shame Arab regimes into returning to the anti-Israeli fold or to inflame the "Street" against the Israel-friendly regimes. 

It's a desperate throw of the dice and a dangerous game because there are some very extreme elements in the Israeli government that will be empowered now. Azerbaijan is getting away with ethnic cleansing in Nagorno-Karabach (while using some Israeli kit BTW), Russia is getting away with it in parts of Ukraine; there will be voices in Israel pushing for more extreme and permanent measures.

[Sheilbh]

I agree with a lot of that.

I also think part of this - and part of why this is such a strategic shock to Israel - is that Israel had largely nullified the threat from Hamas. Gaza was contained, they could fire a few rockets if they wanted and even in that context Iron Dome broadly protected them. Plus from what I understand there was confidence that Israel's intelligence was very good on what Hamas would do. I think, and I could be wrong on this, that that secure context is part of why Israeli politics has gone as it has - secure societies can afford to have massive confrontations over core constitutional issues, they can afford to send the IDF to mainly guard existing and growing settlements, they can pander more and more to ultra-Orthodox parties with broad religious draft exemptions etc.

I could be wrong but I wonder if the response may be key to the future of Israeli politics. If he goes down the national unity route and security (and service) becomes a key issue again in a way it hasn't in recent years then that may well sideline the more extreme elements in Netanyahu's coalition. If not then you have very extreme parts of that coalition who even before today advocated what amounts to ethnic cleansing, and groups who represent those with draft exemptions in the IDF and I think it might head in quite a compustible (and bad) way.

From a Hamas pov I think that "nullification" created a challenge. If they intended to continue they needed an ability to attack Israel that they couldn't just swat away. There have been the outrages against civilians but I almost wonder if as shocking to the Israeli context will be the border posts overrun, IDF equipment stolen - all in core, 1948 Israeli territory (not Golan, Sinai, West Bank settlements etc) from a threat they thought they'd basically managed. I think that's why Hezbollah weren't aware is precisely because Hamas needed surprise. It's almost existential - if your basis for existing is fighting Israel and Israel has basically penned you in and developed a shield that blocks attacks, then you either adapt or basically stop existing/cede your role. Perhaps part of it is also in a way an "propaganada of the deed" thing: no matter how secure Israel feels, it isn't - Hamas (and others) will keep working on new ways to attack. It is probably also something that's going to be very difficult to repeat - though I imagine they're not unprepared in Gaza for retaliation which they will expect to be more than just a few airstrikes back.

[Legbiter]

There's video of Palestinians hauling away Israeli women and children.  The men were shouting a word that ISIS used for sex slaves.

Yeah this is a bona fide invasion instead of a raid. And the perpetrators are flooding social media with their Commanche/Yamnaya behavior.



If I were the Israelis I'd basically bulldoze Gaza City and all it's inhabitants into the Mediterranean.

[Tamas]

Corbyn of course declares on the side of Hamas:

The Palestinian people deserve better than this.

We will not bring about peace by ignoring the reality of Israeli occupation, documented by Amnesty, Human Rights Watch, the UN, B'Tselem and many more.

End apartheid. Defend human rights. Free Palestine.

What a tool. I'd say it was worth Johnson and his minions' rampage to avoid Corbyn as PM.