2024 US Presidential Elections Megathread

[Sheilbh]

I think Vance won the debate by normalizing himself, which is unfortunate.

Yeah I think that might be. It's the risk of an attack line like "weird" it doesn't take much to nullify it (because, ultimately, you just need to appear not weird for a bit) and Vance "normalising" himself may well help do this.

I also saw a lot of very confident expectations online from people on the left about Walz. I think possible overconfidence from a stump speech and a few clips online.

It is still very close as Valmy says. Which is terrifying.

[Valmy]

The tendency of some Democrat partisans online to overconfidence is just cope imo. They are hoping they can confidently state their preferred outcome into existence.

[DGuller]

I think there is a tendency in general to so beat down the opponents that you can't help but get high on your own supply, to great detriment.  I think it played out with Ukraine, who have mocked the Russian army so much that they blundered into a a telegraphed counteroffensive with no air power.

[Valmy]

Theoretically if the average polls work out exactly as they currently stand on 538, Kamala will win with 276 Electoral Votes with a 2.7% margin in the popular vote. But if it even goes a little bit in Trump's direction in even one of those states, except Nevada, then he will win.

[Valmy]

In the Senate it is just as dire. We need things to go chalk according to the current polls, which includes a win in Ohio of all places, plus one upset someplace just to "only" lose one seat and thus be able to do things like make Presidential appointments.

If the Republicans win the Senate they can basically make the country ungovernable by just grinding everything to a halt and refusing to confirm anything.

I like our chances of retaking the House so there is that as the Dems lead the Republicans by 2.3% on a generic House ballot, but there is a lot of gerrymandering that must be overcome.

The whole thing just looks very bleak. But at least there exists a reasonably possible version of reality where the Democrats win the Presidency, Senate, and House. But it could very easily go the other way.

[viper37]

I've read that 538 isn't that accurate since Nate Silver sold his site.

Trump got a couple good polls from Quinnipiac, but Harris put up some strong numbers in Pennsylvania earlier today. Overall the model is holding steady. Harris now leads by 3.4 points in our national polling average — up from 3.2 points yesterday. But her chance of winning the Electoral College is still hovering right around 55%.



https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model

[Josquius]

The worrying thing with vance is the odds of him being president within the next few years  are high - I can't see trump living out a term.

[Admiral Yi]

The worrying thing with vance is the odds of him being president within the next few years  are high - I can't see trump living out a term.

Anyone but Trump

[Valmy]

The worrying thing with vance is the odds of him being president within the next few years  are high - I can't see trump living out a term.

You know what? I would take that. People hate Vance.

JD Vance as leader of the Republicans would be a disaster for them.

[The Minsky Moment]

I'd be OK with the version of JD Vance that used to advocate the Republican Party being more inclusive, not so much with the current version of JD Vance as slightly more creepy Ron DeSantis.

The evidence suggests that the key motivating factor for JD Vance is raw ambition.  So if he could be convinced that it was in his personal interest to act like a responsible statesman, instead of the nasty little shit he's been playing the last few years for benefit of Trump and MAGA world, it could work out.

[Tonitrus]

He was caught off guard by the insane opener of the "Would you let Israel preemptively strike anyone Iran (I am pretty sure that was the actual question)" question, too, and it took him time to recover.

I thought that was a major moderator gaffe when I heard it...the news of Iran tossing dozens of ballistic missiles at Israel was already hours old, making it a pretty stupid/lame question.

Also, the first time Vance decided to stampede over the moderators holding him up...took way too long to cut his mic.

[Admiral Yi]

What we need now is a letter writing campaign from Guardian readers to residents of Pennsatucky.

[Gups]

I've seen a couple of polls recently suggesting that Trump is only a point or two ahead in Florida. Probably just wishful thinking but could it be in play?

[OttoVonBismarck]

I've read that 538 isn't that accurate since Nate Silver sold his site.

Trump got a couple good polls from Quinnipiac, but Harris put up some strong numbers in Pennsylvania earlier today. Overall the model is holding steady. Harris now leads by 3.4 points in our national polling average — up from 3.2 points yesterday. But her chance of winning the Electoral College is still hovering right around 55%.



https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model

538 and Nate just use a different model, Nate sold all rights to 538 branding, but he retained ownership of his model. But the guy who took over 538 for ABC or whoever it is that owns it, was a long time election stat nerd like Nate, he just ran a different model. I believe his model was being criticized a good bit earlier in the season, but he's made various adjustments.

Based on the fact all of these same models back in 2020 basically told us "hey it's a coin flip" and then the election was basically coin flip close in 6 states, unless there was a major polling swing for one candidate I dunno how valuable any of them are--they're just signaling what most of us know, it is going to be a close election decided by narrow margins in a few states. Anyone of either partisan affiliation going into election night with confidence is not doing so based on data but feelz.

[Josquius]

I don't like gambling. It definitely is too much of a dice roll.
But...I dunno. I am cautiously optimistic from what I do see; full disclaimers I'm not paying a huge amount of attention, I'm not there on the ground, etc...

Trump is known and established. Surely he hit his peak voter numbers in 2016, by 2020 this had fell off and then there was his attempted coup.... But even aside from him being an absolute POS, will he really excite many beyond the die hard? He's old news.

Kamala on the other hand...the thing about black women registering to vote in record numbers and all that...I do think there might be a bit more enthusiasm there. Its not the DNC anymore. From where I sit it has gone a bit worryingly quiet. But still there should be more chance of voting from her support.

One thing I wonder about is how the weather would impact things. Reduced turnout overall should be good for Dems given the enthusiasm element...but people in the cities with longer queues for fewer polling sites would  suffer more if the weather sucks than those in small towns.