Finland, Sweden + NATO

[Threviel]

Very few voters in Sweden sympathises with Erdogan and the Turks, to campaign on that would be stupid.

What this shows is that the Social Democrats are the only adults in the room, for fucks sake what a clusterfuck the opposition is. Totally unsuitable for government.

They painted the Social Democrats into a corner where the only solution for the government was a deal with Ms. Kakabaveh. They seemingly tried a last minute deal where the justice minister goes voluntarily, but apparently no go. So now, in this sensitive national security situation they were forced to do something that is not good for the nation.

This does not shine a good light on the opposition, risking national security to play silly political games. There's an election in three months, so it would only be symbolical.

The good interpretation is that they are too stupid to see the consequences, the bad that they are egotistical psychopaths out of sync with the times and the mood.

Either way it's at least +1 vote from me for the Social Democrats, I'll only have to shower afterwards.

[Barrister]

Very few voters in Sweden sympathises with Erdogan and the Turks, to campaign on that would be stupid.

What this shows is that the Social Democrats are the only adults in the room, for fucks sake what a clusterfuck the opposition is. Totally unsuitable for government.

They painted the Social Democrats into a corner where the only solution for the government was a deal with Ms. Kakabaveh. They seemingly tried a last minute deal where the justice minister goes voluntarily, but apparently no go. So now, in this sensitive national security situation they were forced to do something that is not good for the nation.

This does not shine a good light on the opposition, risking national security to play silly political games. There's an election in three months, so it would only be symbolical.

The good interpretation is that they are too stupid to see the consequences, the bad that they are egotistical psychopaths out of sync with the times and the mood.

Either way it's at least +1 vote from me for the Social Democrats, I'll only have to shower afterwards.

Okay, so I really don't follow Swedish politics, but how does the government of the day making a bad deal with a lone MP reflect badly on the opposition?  Sounds like the Social Democrats were trying the following strategy (shown here in meme form)?

[The Brain]

The Swedish government appears determined to get a "no" from NATO. Digging in on Turkish issues.

How so? Unwilling to throw Kurds under the bus or pretend Erdogan is not a autocrat?

To defeat a vote of no confidence against a minister they made a deal with an MP from Kurdistan that includes various matters of support for Kurdish movements etc.

It remains unclear why the opposition wanted to sabotage the NATO application. Maybe time will tell.

So if I understand your perspective correctly:

The opposition decided to try to bring the justice minister down (which essentially would bring the government down). To survive, the government needed to rely on independent MP Ms. Kakabaveh, whom the Turkish government wants extradited for her time in an Iranian based Kurdish militia.

If the opposition had not pressed for a confidence vote, the government would've had more room to maneouvre re: Ms. Kakabaveh and the whole thing would've been lower profile. Thus, the opposition's actions jeopardizes Swedish NATO application because it seems designed to rile up Turkey as much as possible.

Is that correct?

Though in theory, if the opposition had triggered an election they could - in theory - have campaigned on more pro-Turkish, anti-Kurdish notes and if they won could've sweetened Erdogan sufficiently.

Basically. The government chose to make the minister question a matter of stay or go for the whole government. They could have dropped the minister quietly or otherwise without bringing down the entire government.

The opposition decided that with a Swedish NATO application being in a sensitive phase, rocking the boat in a way that risked making a single pro-Kurd MP a kingmaker was a good idea. Of course the opposition says that the government should have acted the way the opposition wanted them to act, and not this way, but boohoo.

From my perspective both the government and the opposition have been weak here. If the Social Dems weren't comfortable with getting into bed with Turkey then why did they apply for NATO membership in the first place? And if it was so bad then Sweden could have just agreed to enough of Turkey's demands to get in and then wiped our ass with the deal once we were in NATO. It's politics. What would Turkey do? Kick us out? And if the opposition thought that NATO membership was important, then why did they play domestic games that risked it?

There likely wouldn't have been a new election if the vote carried AFAIK. The opposition were fine with the government, just not with that minister. And there's a general election in September.

[Josquius]

So who actually is getting the blame?

[The Brain]

So who actually is getting the blame?

The opposition looks the most like clowns, at least.

[The Brain]

How is Finland's NATO application process going? I assume things are moving along nicely? That is the important one, Sweden doesn't matter that much.

[Solmyr]

Finland kinda tied itself to Sweden on the matter.

Also, Erdogan demanded that the Finnish government "deal with" the national broadcasting company Yle, because they did an interview with some Kurd leader. I guess dictators really cannot imagine independent media that the government does not interfere with.

[The Brain]

Finland kinda tied itself to Sweden on the matter.

Odd. Finns are usually sensible.

[Solmyr]

We had to hold Sweden's hand and drag them along into submitting a NATO application, so it would be weird to let go now.

[Legbiter]

Looks like the summit went well.

[Grey Fox]

Sounds like Turkey got something and SweFin are in.

[Legbiter]

Yep.

[Zanza]

Everybody looks so happy ... not.

[Jacob]

That's good news

Wonder what concessions Turkey got for removing their veto. I suppose we'll find out soon enough as I think Erdogan is after PR victories in this.

[Sheilbh]

Ragıp Soylu
@ragipsoylu
Here are the things Turkey got:
• Sweden/Finland will lift its arms embargo
• Both will support Turkey on PKK, stop support to YPG
• They will amend their laws on terrorism
• They will share Intel with each other
• They will extradite terror suspects
• Finland and Sweden will support Turkey's participation to EU's Pesko
• Turkey, Finland and Sweden will establish a permanent joint mechanism to consult on justice, security and intelligence

There's a trilateral agreement on it. Unclear if it actually means anything (particularly for Finland) or is just re-stating the current position or a big success for Erdogan - that lack of clarity itself suggests it's probably quite a smart solution