College Football, 2021-22

[Berkut]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cLTlGLjH_6o

Fun trick play.  "Coach, what's the play??"

Not sure that that isn't "intent to deceive," but if it isn't, you are right that it is the most fun kind of trickeration.

I actually don't even think it worked. It doesn't look like the defense was sold, they still all fired off at the snap. He just got the yard they needed anyway.

[grumbler]

Arizona did sign a excellent QB prospect from Servite HS in Southern Cal, Noah Fifita. Along with a 4 star TE from that same school.

The top rated player from that school is a 5 star WR, Tetairoa McMillan. He had verbally commited to Oregon, but on Wednesday he declined to sign, saying he was going to take a couple days and would sign by Friday.

Here's a coincidence:  The LA Times High School Player of the Year is from Servite HS, which I read about because he is a Michigan early enrollee: DT Mason Graham.  This place must have amazing coaching, because Graham was a mid-level 3-star when Michigan offered, a high 3-star when he committed, and a high four-star (#220 in  the country) when he signed the LOI.

'Grat's on getting your five-star, btw.  Michigan doesn't have one in its class yet.

[crazy canuck]

Are those star ratings reliable indicators?  Or is it more of a recruiting tool - come to our school and you will be playing with other high ranked players?

[Berkut]

Are those star ratings reliable indicators?  Or is it more of a recruiting tool - come to our school and you will be playing with other high ranked players?

Reliable? Hmmm.

There is plenty of hype built into them, and certainly a lot of bias.

But its like any generalization of evaluation.

Sure, you can trot out lots of examples of NFL first round draft picks that were busts, of course.

But overall? In general highly drafted players tend to turn into high quality players more then not.

Same with HS recruit rankings. Any particular one its hard to say whether they are really going to be a star in college. And plenty of 2 and 3 star recruits turn into 4 and 5 star players.

But overall? Yeah, the schools that consistently recruit the higher ranked players do better over time, as should be expected.

As I mentioned to a fellow Arizona fan "Find the diamond in the rough is hard and error prone. Better to just get a pile of diamonds and grab the ones you want".

[crazy canuck]

makes sense, thanks.

[grumbler]

Yeah, the star rankings are mere indicators, but they have some predictive power.  There just isn't enough information, though, to reliably rate the roughly half-million juniors and seniors playing high school football in the US (let alone Canada).  But its good enough that 60% of the five-stars get drafted into the NFL, while only 24% of 4-stars do, and only 6% of three-star (pretty generic) players do.  The NFL is rating just on college performance and player measurables.  It doesn't care about how many stars the player had coming out of high school.

[Berkut]

https://twitter.com/mrsFeef/status/1472267142787596289?s=20&fbclid=IwAR351hAbtmwf1S1hLwJmGYxBY06qJvwvPMxGVEVgYT7PDe3r0YL__qYCyPQ

[Eddie Teach]

I daresay, a generic high school football player has far less than a 6% chance of making the NFL.

[ulmont]

I daresay, a generic high school football player has far less than a 6% chance of making the NFL.

Every year around 1 million boys play high school football in the US if statista.com can be believed.  Cut that to 250,000 to represent just seniors for a year to year comparison.  Every year the NFL drafts around 250 rookies.  So the odds would be more like 0.1% if by generic you mean "randomly chosen."  If you mean "average high school player", the odds are more like 0.0%.

[grumbler]

I daresay, a generic high school football player has far less than a 6% chance of making the NFL.

  I daresay that you are confusing the word "generic" with the word "average."   You are also mistaking a parenthetical notation with an argument.

[alfred russel]

I daresay, a generic high school football player has far less than a 6% chance of making the NFL.

Every year around 1 million boys play high school football in the US if statista.com can be believed.  Cut that to 250,000 to represent just seniors for a year to year comparison.  Every year the NFL drafts around 250 rookies.  So the odds would be more like 0.1% if by generic you mean "randomly chosen."  If you mean "average high school player", the odds are more like 0.0%.

There are about 11,000 scholarship football athletes in the FBS. That is about 2,700 scholarship players coming out of college every year. If 250 get into the NFL from the FBS, that is about 9%. A 3 star player having a 6% chance of getting into the NFL actually is a below average NFL prospect in the overall FBS scholarship population.

Obviously more than 250 players get onto NFL rosters than those that were drafted, but equally obviously players get into the NFL without going through FBS teams. Seems like a reasonable rule of thumb.

[Berkut]

I daresay, a generic high school football player has far less than a 6% chance of making the NFL.

A generic high school football player is not a 3* recruit. A generic high school football player is a zero star recruit.

Grumbler said they were a generic player, and we were talking about college football.

A guy who is a 3* recruit has multiple offers from high level college football programs. Unless he is at some kind of premier, specialized high school football powerhouse, he is almost certainly the best player on his team, and probably one of the best players in his entire high school area. In high school, the kids if a fucking super star if he is a 3* recruit.

[Valmy]

3 star recruits are often super stars in high school, grumbler means generic D1 scholarship player not generic high school player.

[crazy canuck]

I daresay, a generic high school football player has far less than a 6% chance of making the NFL.

A generic high school football player is not a 3* recruit. A generic high school football player is a zero star recruit.

Grumbler said they were a generic player, and we were talking about college football.

A guy who is a 3* recruit has multiple offers from high level college football programs. Unless he is at some kind of premier, specialized high school football powerhouse, he is almost certainly the best player on his team, and probably one of the best players in his entire high school area. In high school, the kids if a fucking super star if he is a 3* recruit.

I think I have told this story before - but here it goes again - back in the time before time I was invited to a D1 prospects camp.  After the first couple of drills it was pretty clear that most of us were average some of us (including me) simply did not belong there.  And there were two kids who definitely had a shot.  One of those kids eventually went on to play D1.

[Berkut]

I've heard it said that the jump from high school to D1 is the largest jump in talent for anyone who makes it to the professional level.

Which makes sense, at least from a statistical standpoint.