College Football, 2021-22

[crazy canuck]

Yeah, I went into that camp thinking I was a pretty big deal.  But as I say, a couple drills in, I turned to one of the kids who was really very good and told him I did not think I was good enough to carry his water bottle.

He just smiled and then dunked over me in the next drill 

[grumbler]

I've heard it said that the jump from high school to D1 is the largest jump in talent for anyone who makes it to the professional level.

Which makes sense, at least from a statistical standpoint.

I didn't think that that was true, until I did some rough numbers. There are roughly 250,000 high school football players graduating each year.  Roughly 3600 (130 * average class of 28) get scholarships at Div 1 programs, or about 1.5%.  Of the roughly 2600 Div 1 scholarship players that graduate, 290 or so make a pro team (drafted or UDFA), so roughly 11%.  The other divisions add 150% more players, but only 10 or so guys to the NFL.

[ulmont]

There are about 11,000 scholarship football athletes in the FBS. That is about 2,700 scholarship players coming out of college every year. If 250 get into the NFL from the FBS, that is about 9%. A 3 star player having a 6% chance of getting into the NFL actually is a below average NFL prospect in the overall FBS scholarship population.

I didn't scroll up far enough to see the 3* discussion.  Agreed 6% is much closer than .1% for a 3* college recruit.

[Admiral Yi]

There's also the guys who get drafted but don't make the roster.

[ulmont]

There's also the guys who get drafted but don't make the roster.

If you get drafted, you made the NFL.

[grumbler]

There's also the guys who get drafted but don't make the roster.

Sure, but there's no way I know of to separate every NFL player by length of time in the NFL.  We can just look at the number drafted + number of UDFAs.

[grumbler]

There's also the guys who get drafted but don't make the roster.

If you get drafted, you made the NFL.

Yeah, Yi is thinking final roster, not off-season roster.  Everyone drafted makes the offseason roster unless they never sign a contract, which I am not sure has happened in the modern era.

[grumbler]

Here's a weird one:  Ohio State couldn't sell 1/3 of their tickets to the Rose Bowl and had to return them: https://www.dispatch.com/story/sports/2021/12/23/ohio-state-football-sold-two-thirds-rose-bowl-ticket-allotment/9009620002/

Further, OSU has only sold out seven of its last twelve home games.

OSU had always had one of those fanatical fan bases that always sold out home games and always sold out the big bowls, at least.  Hell, Michigan was supposed to suck this year but still sold out the stadium.

I wonder what's going on with the OSU fan base.  The team is as good as it's ever been.  Maybe Day being such a bland coach is affecting the fans?  That would be strange, because he's 23-1 in conference games!

[Berkut]

OSU has very intellectual fans, who understand the dangers of pandemics, unlike Michigan.

[Berkut]

Now that the interesting part of the season is over....

What do these changes to the NCAA rules mean for the future of college football?

It seems to me like the NCAA has basically just given up entirely any effort to regulate the paying of players. Players can now be paid, and as far as I can see, there is zero control on that.

Anyone can pay any player anything they want, and with free transfers....doesn't that basically mean every single college football player is an unlimited free agent, all the time?

All this talk about the transfer portal, and who is going where....isn't it already, or going to be, simply a matter of someone with money going to whatever players they like and saying "I'll pay you to transfer to <insert SEC school here>"?

[Eddie Teach]

SEC fans aren't the only people with money.

[grumbler]

Now that the interesting part of the season is over....

What do these changes to the NCAA rules mean for the future of college football?

It seems to me like the NCAA has basically just given up entirely any effort to regulate the paying of players. Players can now be paid, and as far as I can see, there is zero control on that.

Anyone can pay any player anything they want, and with free transfers....doesn't that basically mean every single college football player is an unlimited free agent, all the time?

All this talk about the transfer portal, and who is going where....isn't it already, or going to be, simply a matter of someone with money going to whatever players they like and saying "I'll pay you to transfer to <insert SEC school here>"?

Transfers are not unlimited.  You get one free transfer, just like all NCAA sports, and the ability to transfer freely after graduation.

The NIL stuff is going to be interesting.  My understanding is that the universities don't know what the problems are going to be so are afraid of trying to establish rules.  They'll have to, at some point.

I'm hoping that somehow the NFL is forced or convinced to start a minor league to bleed off all of these players who just want to go to the pros.

[Berkut]

I find it amusing that the NCAA is saying that you can pay a player for NIL, but you *cannot* pay a player to just go play at some particular school. As if there is any possible way to actually enforce that.

[alfred russel]

Here's a weird one:  Ohio State couldn't sell 1/3 of their tickets to the Rose Bowl and had to return them: https://www.dispatch.com/story/sports/2021/12/23/ohio-state-football-sold-two-thirds-rose-bowl-ticket-allotment/9009620002/

Further, OSU has only sold out seven of its last twelve home games.

OSU had always had one of those fanatical fan bases that always sold out home games and always sold out the big bowls, at least.  Hell, Michigan was supposed to suck this year but still sold out the stadium.

I wonder what's going on with the OSU fan base.  The team is as good as it's ever been.  Maybe Day being such a bland coach is affecting the fans?  That would be strange, because he's 23-1 in conference games!

College football is boring without a relevant Miami Hurricanes program?

More seriously, the rose bowl (which is actually officially: the Rose Bowl Game presented by Capital One Venture X) is now a shit bowl game, just like every other bowl game. It is playoffs or bust. Over 20 something years ago the rose bowl was guaranteed to match up the Big 10 champ and the Pac 10 champ and so that was the goal of any team in those leagues, but this year it is for the Big 10 runner up and that traditional Pac 10/12/whatever team of Utah that dropped games to powerhouses of BYU and San Diego State.

[alfred russel]

I'm hoping that somehow the NFL is forced or convinced to start a minor league to bleed off all of these players who just want to go to the pros.

Almost all the players just want to go to the pros, but since the courts have decided to blow the doors off restrictions on paying players, there is no point to a minor league. That is college football now. Sure you can start a minor league if you want, but the real money is going to be in the minor league called college football, since those teams have the brand equity that will bring the bigger compensation packages.