Canada Election 2021

[Josephus]

Conservative vote in Alberta was down 13% from 2019, while steady or upwards in every other part of Canada.

Right...so as per my comment to your post in the Canada Politics thread....the Conservatives CAN win an election, yes even in a first-past the post election. If they continue to solidify those gains. First past the post also hurts the Liberals when "progressives" split their votes, as happens in many ridings too.

[viper37]

I think gun control is going to continue to be a problem for the Conservatives.  It is the wedge issue that will never go away unless the Conservatives can manage their base to accept the reality that Canadians living in cities want strong gun control laws.

give more autonomy to the cities and let them ban guns in their territory while hunters and professional shooters can still partake in their hobby.

[viper37]

the protrait does not seem to have changed much for Quebec.

[jimmy olsen]

Conservative vote in Alberta was down 13% from 2019, while steady or upwards in every other part of Canada.

In theory a worthwhile tradeoff, but you'll need more of it.

BTW, do you have a good site that shows the vote percentages and comparables by region and sub-region?

This is the best I've found

https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/federal/2021/results/

[Josephus]

So do you think it's fair to say that come Monday we'll see the last of either Justin or O'toole?

Going back to this. It will be interesting to see if either runs next time.

O'Toole, it is clear, is seeing daggers all over the place and will likely not survive the next leadership review.
Trudeau: Will he seek a fourth term? Or is it likely, he'll step down as leader of the party in three years or so and let a new leader lead the party into the next election?

[Barrister]

So do you think it's fair to say that come Monday we'll see the last of either Justin or O'toole?

Going back to this. It will be interesting to see if either runs next time.

O'Toole, it is clear, is seeing daggers all over the place and will likely not survive the next leadership review.
Trudeau: Will he seek a fourth term? Or is it likely, he'll step down as leader of the party in three years or so and let a new leader lead the party into the next election?

Pierre Trudeau was prime minister for 15 years (with the brief 9 month Joe Clark interregnum).  Justin is not terribly old at 49.  He has no obvious challengers for leadership (it's not like the Chretien / Martin leadership struggles).  Why wouldn't he stay as leader as long as he can, to maybe break his old man's duration?

[Jacob]

Yeah, I don't see why Trudeau would step down unless there's some sort of scandal that really gets legs.

As for O'Toole, I'll defer to Beeb on that on how precarious his situation is.

[Barrister]

I'm a progressive now, so I have no inside information about O'Toole.

But based on my former colleagues I suspect there will definitely be some knives out for O'Toole.  It hasn't gone without notice how he ran for leadership as a "true blue" conservative, but immediately shifted very hard to the middle in the election.  To some extent that's to be expected, but the firearms lobby won't ignore how quickly he threw the guns issue under the bus in the election.  Canada's NFA is nothing like the NRA used to be in the US but firearms is a very motivating issue for a sub-set of Conservative voters.

On the other hand that's twice now that the Conservatives have gone into an election with a brand new largely unknown leader (and where Trudeau seemed vulnerable), and twice that they've lost.  From a purely tactical decision there's a lot to be said for sticking with your leader and letting Canadians get more comfortable with him.  Much like Trudeau there's no obvious saviour waiting in the wings to challenge O'Toole (former me was kind of rooting for Pierre Poilievre, but only because I like low-charisma technocratic politicians).

[crazy canuck]

So do you think it's fair to say that come Monday we'll see the last of either Justin or O'toole?

I think the knifes will be out for O'Toole almost immediately. 

I hope Justin decides to spend more time with his family but I think that is unlikely as he will be PM in a continuing minority government.

Josephus, my answer is the same as I gave before the election.

[Jacob]

I'm a progressive now, so I have no inside information about O'Toole.

But based on my former colleagues I suspect there will definitely be some knives out for O'Toole.  It hasn't gone without notice how he ran for leadership as a "true blue" conservative, but immediately shifted very hard to the middle in the election.  To some extent that's to be expected, but the firearms lobby won't ignore how quickly he threw the guns issue under the bus in the election.  Canada's NFA is nothing like the NRA used to be in the US but firearms is a very motivating issue for a sub-set of Conservative voters.

On the other hand that's twice now that the Conservatives have gone into an election with a brand new largely unknown leader (and where Trudeau seemed vulnerable), and twice that they've lost.  From a purely tactical decision there's a lot to be said for sticking with your leader and letting Canadians get more comfortable with him.  Much like Trudeau there's no obvious saviour waiting in the wings to challenge O'Toole (former me was kind of rooting for Pierre Poilievre, but only because I like low-charisma technocratic politicians).

Thanks

[Josephus]

I'm a progressive now, so I have no inside information about O'Toole.

But based on my former colleagues I suspect there will definitely be some knives out for O'Toole.  It hasn't gone without notice how he ran for leadership as a "true blue" conservative, but immediately shifted very hard to the middle in the election.  To some extent that's to be expected, but the firearms lobby won't ignore how quickly he threw the guns issue under the bus in the election.  Canada's NFA is nothing like the NRA used to be in the US but firearms is a very motivating issue for a sub-set of Conservative voters.

On the other hand that's twice now that the Conservatives have gone into an election with a brand new largely unknown leader (and where Trudeau seemed vulnerable), and twice that they've lost.  From a purely tactical decision there's a lot to be said for sticking with your leader and letting Canadians get more comfortable with him.  Much like Trudeau there's no obvious saviour waiting in the wings to challenge O'Toole (former me was kind of rooting for Pierre Poilievre, but only because I like low-charisma technocratic politicians).

Thanks

Take it inside you two...sheesh.

[Jacob]

Take it inside you two...sheesh.

Do you conceptualize languish as being "outside"?

[garbon]

Yeah feels like get a room would be more appropriate.