Canada Election 2021

[viper37]

Mad Max was defeated in his Beauce riding.

« Aujourd'hui, nous avons fait l'histoire. La politique canadienne sera changée à tout jamais », a déclaré Maxime Bernier devant ses sympathisants réunis à Saskatoon, en Saskatchewan.

Selon des résultats encore préliminaires, le PPC récoltait un peu plus de 5 % des votes, contre moins de 2 % en 2019. Il n'a toutefois pas réussi à faire élire un candidat. En Beauce, Maxime Bernier a été défait par le conservateur Richard Lehoux. Il avait ravi le siège de Maxime Bernier en 2019.

« J'aime mieux perdre debout avec mes principes qu'à genoux sans principes », a commenté Maxime Bernier en entrevue à Radio-Canada.

L'absence de députés élus à la Chambre des communes n'empêchera pas le PPC de continuer « le combat pour les libertés en dehors du Parlement, dans la rue, pour influencer l'opinion publique », a déclaré M. Bernier devant ses partisans, qui scandaient « freedom » (liberté).

« C'est une révolution idéologique que nous entamons aujourd'hui même », a déclaré M. Bernier, estimant que les votes en sa faveur témoignaient de citoyens qui « en ont assez de l'hystérie covidienne ».

Translation here

[Jacob]

Fixed it for you.  No need to thank me.

Don't worry, I won't.

[crazy canuck]

If I was writing for the Beaverton my headline would be - Trudeau rewards Bernier with trip to Agha Khans private island

[Barrister]

Conservative vote in Alberta was down 13% from 2019, while steady or upwards in every other part of Canada.

[DGuller]

Conservative vote in Alberta was down 13% from 2019, while steady or upwards in every other part of Canada.

Your advocacy for the NDP must've been highly effective.

[Barrister]

Conservative vote in Alberta was down 13% from 2019, while steady or upwards in every other part of Canada.

Your advocacy for the NDP must've been highly effective.

Why thank you, but it probably has more to do with how badly Alberta screwed up this 4th wave of Covid.

[Jacob]

Conservative vote in Alberta was down 13% from 2019, while steady or upwards in every other part of Canada.

In theory a worthwhile tradeoff, but you'll need more of it.

BTW, do you have a good site that shows the vote percentages and comparables by region and sub-region?

Locally in the Lower Mainland the Conservatives lost several suburban ridings that typically go Conservative, and I think the story was similar in various Ontario suburbs. If I were to speculate I think Covid (having to guard the right flank vs the PPC and Kenney's less then stellar record here) was probably a key driver. Maybe daycare, transit, and energy/ oil as well... but I'm less sure there.

[Jacob]

Why thank you, but it probably has more to do with how badly Alberta screwed up this 4th wave of Covid.

I concur. I think other issues may have impacted the election as well - nothing is ever simple - but I think Covid-19 handling was a key factor. There's very little patience for Covidiot coddling and nuance on vaccinations in the cities and suburbs, I think.

I was discussing the election yesterday and - in spite of the decline for the Lib on calling the election and the whole "you're wasting our time and money for this election" - it may have been a good tactical move. Assuming we're more clear of Covid in a year or two, the PPC is probably going to be less of a vote-splitter to the Conservatives unless they find another issue beyond end-the-lockdowns-and-vax-choice... and I'm not sure what that would be.

[Barrister]

Conservative vote in Alberta was down 13% from 2019, while steady or upwards in every other part of Canada.

In theory a worthwhile tradeoff, but you'll need more of it.

BTW, do you have a good site that shows the vote percentages and comparables by region and sub-region?

Locally in the Lower Mainland the Conservatives lost several suburban ridings that typically go Conservative, and I think the story was similar in various Ontario suburbs. If I were to speculate I think Covid (having to guard the right flank vs the PPC and Kenney's less then stellar record here) was probably a key driver. Maybe daycare, transit, and energy/ oil as well... but I'm less sure there.

I don't.  I can pull some of this by hand.

In BC in 2019 he vote percentages were Con 34.0, Lib 26.2, NDP 24.4, Grn 12.5, PPC 1.7
In 2021 the results are Con 33.4, Lib 26.8, NDP 29.0, Grn 5.3, PPC 5.1

Hard to draw a lot of conclusions other than a shift from the Greens to the NDP and the growth of the PPC.  The big 2 are virtually unchanged.

I saw an analysis that the rise in PPC support across the country could have affected up to 24 ridings.

[crazy canuck]

This might work for you Jacob.

https://www.macleans.ca/news/canadian-federal-election-2021-live-results-map/

Alice Wong lost a long time Conservative riding in Richmond - really the last conservative stronghold in Metro Vancouver.  And even in Alberta the Conservatives did not do well in urban ridings.  The Conservatives are going to have to figure out how to appeal to urban voters.

I don't think that will happen though and we are likely going to be in a long cycle of minority governments.  I don't think that will be a bad thing.

I think gun control is going to continue to be a problem for the Conservatives.  It is the wedge issue that will never go away unless the Conservatives can manage their base to accept the reality that Canadians living in cities want strong gun control laws.

[crazy canuck]

In BC in 2019 he vote percentages were Con 34.0, Lib 26.2, NDP 24.4, Grn 12.5, PPC 1.7
In 2021 the results are Con 33.4, Lib 26.8, NDP 29.0, Grn 5.3, PPC 5.1

Hard to draw a lot of conclusions other than a shift from the Greens to the NDP and the growth of the PPC.  The big 2 are virtually unchanged.

I think the Greens did not go to the NDP.  They are foes in this province.  I think the Green vote went to the PPC (as we discussed there are a lot of right of centre green members and Bernier's anti vax stance likely resonated with some of them) and the Liberals - for the non wing nuts.  I think the NDP increase was at the expense of the Liberals - ie NDP voters who did not feel the need to vote strategically in this election.

The PPC had an impact on the Richmond election put probably did not decide the seat if I am right about how the votes migrated from the last election.

[Barrister]

I think the Greens did not go to the NDP.  They are foes in this province.  I think the Green vote went to the PPC (as we discussed there are a lot of right of centre green members and Bernier's anti vax stance likely resonated with some of them) and the Liberals - for the non wing nuts.  I think the NDP increase was at the expense of the Liberals - ie NDP voters who did not feel the need to vote strategically in this election.

The PPC had an impact on the Richmond election put probably did not decide the seat if I am right about how the votes migrated from the last election.

I saw an analysis where over half of PPC voters had voted Conservative in 2019.  The next biggest group was people who had voted PPC.

[crazy canuck]

Interesting, is there a regional breakdown for that analysis.  I can see that being entirely accurate for the prairie provinces, and maybe Ontario.  But I am not sure about BC.

[Jacob]

I don't.  I can pull some of this by hand.

In BC in 2019 he vote percentages were Con 34.0, Lib 26.2, NDP 24.4, Grn 12.5, PPC 1.7
In 2021 the results are Con 33.4, Lib 26.8, NDP 29.0, Grn 5.3, PPC 5.1

Hard to draw a lot of conclusions other than a shift from the Greens to the NDP and the growth of the PPC.  The big 2 are virtually unchanged.

I saw an analysis that the rise in PPC support across the country could have affected up to 24 ridings.

Thank you

... and agreed on the conclusions.

[Jacob]

This might work for you Jacob.

https://www.macleans.ca/news/canadian-federal-election-2021-live-results-map/

Thanks