Canada Election 2021

[Josephus]

Trudeau may regret calling the election:

T

he poll, which surveyed 1,500 Canadians online last weekend, suggests 33 per cent of voters would vote for the Liberals if the election were held tomorrow — down three points from last week — while the Conservatives gained one point to earn 32 per cent of the vote.

The NDP also improved by one point and would earn 21 per cent of the vote, the poll suggests. The Greens and Bloc Quebecois remained unchanged at five and six per cent support, respectively, while a combined 22 per cent were either undecided, would vote for another party or would not vote at all.

Probably.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't the same happen to Harper? Didn't he call an early election, believing he had the numbers on his side, only to lose to Trudeau?
Politicians never learn.

[crazy canuck]

Trudeau may regret calling the election:

T

he poll, which surveyed 1,500 Canadians online last weekend, suggests 33 per cent of voters would vote for the Liberals if the election were held tomorrow — down three points from last week — while the Conservatives gained one point to earn 32 per cent of the vote.

The NDP also improved by one point and would earn 21 per cent of the vote, the poll suggests. The Greens and Bloc Quebecois remained unchanged at five and six per cent support, respectively, while a combined 22 per cent were either undecided, would vote for another party or would not vote at all.

Probably.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't the same happen to Harper? Didn't he call an early election, believing he had the numbers on his side, only to lose to Trudeau?
Politicians never learn.

Yep, deja vu all over again..  Harper called an election to take advantage of a new and seemingly unready leader of the Liberal party.   In fairness to Harper, Trudeau had given a terrible interview with Mansbridge and it was clear he could not think on his feet.  Once he ran out of his scripted answers he was dead in the water.  But it turned out the Liberals are good at writing scripting answers and Trudeau is good at memorizing them and staying on script.  Where the Conservatives really screwed up is calling an extra long election, thinking they could destroy the liberal party.  But that gave Trudeau enough time to recover from early blunders and come back to steal the election - from the NDP.

I won't talk about how badly the NDP screwed up in that election - your wounds from that may not yet have healed. 

[Barrister]

Trudeau may regret calling the election:

T

he poll, which surveyed 1,500 Canadians online last weekend, suggests 33 per cent of voters would vote for the Liberals if the election were held tomorrow — down three points from last week — while the Conservatives gained one point to earn 32 per cent of the vote.

The NDP also improved by one point and would earn 21 per cent of the vote, the poll suggests. The Greens and Bloc Quebecois remained unchanged at five and six per cent support, respectively, while a combined 22 per cent were either undecided, would vote for another party or would not vote at all.

Probably.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't the same happen to Harper? Didn't he call an early election, believing he had the numbers on his side, only to lose to Trudeau?
Politicians never learn.

The 2015 election was 4 years after the 2011 election (actually 4 years, 5 months) so it was in no way an early election.

Conservatives knew they were in trouble (though as noted it was the NDP that was the main opposition). Conservatives called an extra-long writ period in order to try and give themselves extra time to turn things around.  Based on the pre-election polling Trudeau winning was a surprise, but the Harper losing not so much.

[Josephus]

Trudeau may regret calling the election:

T

he poll, which surveyed 1,500 Canadians online last weekend, suggests 33 per cent of voters would vote for the Liberals if the election were held tomorrow — down three points from last week — while the Conservatives gained one point to earn 32 per cent of the vote.

The NDP also improved by one point and would earn 21 per cent of the vote, the poll suggests. The Greens and Bloc Quebecois remained unchanged at five and six per cent support, respectively, while a combined 22 per cent were either undecided, would vote for another party or would not vote at all.

Probably.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't the same happen to Harper? Didn't he call an early election, believing he had the numbers on his side, only to lose to Trudeau?
Politicians never learn.

The 2015 election was 4 years after the 2011 election (actually 4 years, 5 months) so it was in no way an early election.

Conservatives knew they were in trouble (though as noted it was the NDP that was the main opposition). Conservatives called an extra-long writ period in order to try and give themselves extra time to turn things around.  Based on the pre-election polling Trudeau winning was a surprise, but the Harper losing not so much.

Right..it was just an unusually long campaign. I knew there was something controversial around it.

[Jacob]

How accurately does this reflect the state of affairs in Alberta?

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/kenney-o-toole-jean-alberta-conservatism-1.6153167

[crazy canuck]

Can't tell you about how things are generally, but all of Mrs. CC's family living in that province, once conservative voters, are definitely not now.

[Maximus]

Well I don't live there but having spent the last two weeks in the province, including a Sunday dinner with my cousin who is an MLA, it appears like Kenney has handled covid with a striking degree of ineptness. It's just anecdotal, but I could definitely see him losing to the NDP due to how badly he has alienated both the hard-right and the center.

[Neil]

Brian Jean.  Interesting...  It's a little odd for him to be calling for a more centrist alternative when his highest profile was as the leader of the protest party that was the right wing of the old Progressive Conservatives.  Given how poorly regarded Jason Kenney is in the province by almost everyone, maybe he can put something together. 

It's hard for me to say how things are in the province right now.  I stand at the intersection of a fairly politically conservative group in the form of my wife's family and my own friend group which tends to be urban professionals that trend towards the NDP.  Professionally, I know a lot of working people that will ride or die with the UCP because of how disastrous the NDP government was for investment in Alberta's energy sector.  In general, there doesn't seem to be much trust in anybody. 

Personally, the handling of Covid by the government is irrelevant for me.  My voting decision will primarily be made on the willingness of any prospective provincial government to handle the ongoing disaster that is the province's insurance market.  However, I don't think I'm all that representative, despite that being the most important issue that people are likely to face where the provincial government can actually do something.  It seems that many people get caught up with non-issues like climate change, American issues or wrangling over school curriculums and the like.  Despite my social conservatism, it'll be almost impossible for me to vote for the UCP in the next Alberta provincial election. 

Federally, there's no doubt that I'll vote Conservative, but that's entirely based on matters of identity.  The other two parties are opposed to my province, so what else can I do.  I don't really think the federal election matters though, since nobody is really interested in doing anything to try and improve Canada.  The country is just a cash register to them.

[Barrister]

How accurately does this reflect the state of affairs in Alberta?

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/kenney-o-toole-jean-alberta-conservatism-1.6153167

I mean - obviously he's correct.  The UCP is in trouble.  They've been trailing the NDP for quite awhile.

I would argue with a couple of points the author makes though.  You can't dismiss the trouble Kenney is having with his own right wing.  The author points to the polling results of the Federal far-right parties (Maverick and PPC), which are nowhere, and then moves on.

But there is a Provincial far-right party - the Wildrose Independence Party.  In recent polling it's been anywhere from 8 to 20% in the polls.  That's not nowhere.

And that's where Kenney's problems come from.  His rural base is strongly taken with anti-Covid-restrictions.  My wife got quite upset with a bunch of social media posts from people from her small town home on the topic, and you can see it in the actions of some members of Kenney's cabinet.

Kenney's not an idiot, and he's not going to surrender to Covid-19 and "let 'er rip".  But in order to satisfy his right-wing base he has consistently tried to go with as light a touch as possible.  And that has not gone over well in my suburban Edmonton social circle, who is all pretty well educated and more worried about their kids safety, and wants more protection, not less.

The author's preferred policy of 'secure the right wing then tack centre' is far more easily said than done.

And Brian Jean taking over the Alberta Party is sheer fantasy.  Jean has always struck me as a very decent person but a lousy politician, and his suddenly moving to the political centre doesn't seem like it would appeal to much of anyone.


Myself I will almost certainly be voting UCP again.  The NDP shows no interest in fiscal discipline, and no interest in criminal justice (if I remember correctly their last election platform said all of nothing on the topic).  But those appear to not be the interests of many Alberta voters.

[Neil]

My wife got quite upset with a bunch of social media posts from people from her small town home on the topic, and you can see it in the actions of some members of Kenney's cabinet.

Yeah, the things I see on there from my wife's aunts...

And Brian Jean taking over the Alberta Party is sheer fantasy.  Jean has always struck me as a very decent person but a lousy politician, and his suddenly moving to the political centre doesn't seem like it would appeal to much of anyone.

Yeah, I can't see how that would work.  The Alberta Party was created as a rebrand of the Liberals and attracted some of the left wing of the PCs.  I can't imagine that their existing membership would take kindly to Brian Jean. 

[crazy canuck]

My wife got quite upset with a bunch of social media posts from people from her small town home on the topic, and you can see it in the actions of some members of Kenney's cabinet.

Yeah, the things I see on there from my wife's aunts...

And Brian Jean taking over the Alberta Party is sheer fantasy.  Jean has always struck me as a very decent person but a lousy politician, and his suddenly moving to the political centre doesn't seem like it would appeal to much of anyone.

Yeah, I can't see how that would work.  The Alberta Party was created as a rebrand of the Liberals and attracted some of the left wing of the PCs.  I can't imagine that their existing membership would take kindly to Brian Jean.

Maybe it will happen the way it did in BC.  When the Social Credit party was destroyed at the polls and the provincial Liberal party (who at that time were actually Liberals) became the official opposition, the Social Crediters just moved over to the Liberals in the next election and it essentially became the same old coalition Social Credit party with a new brand name.

[crazy canuck]

A repeat from what I said in the Afghanistan thread, Trudeau says he takes no personal responsibility for failing to take out more people who should have been taken out.  If I were a Conservative or NDP strategist I would be finding everything Trudeau said to take advantage of the drowning of that little kurdish boy during the 2015 election.   A tag line of all talk or something like that might work.

[Neil]

Maybe it will happen the way it did in BC.  When the Social Credit party was destroyed at the polls and the provincial Liberal party (who at that time were actually Liberals) became the official opposition, the Social Crediters just moved over to the Liberals in the next election and it essentially became the same old coalition Social Credit party with a new brand name.

This already happened to the Alberta Party.  They got taken over by the Progressive wing of the old PCs after the UPC merger.  The 2019 election was the first time they ran candidates in all ridings in the province, and their vote total increased fivefold from the 2015 election.

[crazy canuck]

Maybe it will happen the way it did in BC.  When the Social Credit party was destroyed at the polls and the provincial Liberal party (who at that time were actually Liberals) became the official opposition, the Social Crediters just moved over to the Liberals in the next election and it essentially became the same old coalition Social Credit party with a new brand name.

This already happened to the Alberta Party.  They got taken over by the Progressive wing of the old PCs after the UPC merger.  The 2019 election was the first time they ran candidates in all ridings in the province, and their vote total increased fivefold from the 2015 election.

Ah, many thanks.  I can see now why it makes no sense for Jean to make noises about leading that party.

[Rex Francorum]

I was entering this campaign with the conviction to void my vote like I did 2 years ago. I am a Quebec nationalist and federal politics are relevant to me. Still, I will vote because it is my duty.

However, far from being an ecologist, I am a lot more concerned about environment than I was a few years ago.
On the other site, I just read a blog from a French CBC  journalist about O'Toole seduction program for Legault and Quebec. He named a few points that he would implement for Québec during a Conservative Government:

Augmentation des transferts en santé. Plus de pouvoir en immigration. La loi 101 appliquée aux entreprises fédérales. Déclaration de revenus unique. Ne pas intervenir en cour contre la Loi sur la laïcité de l'État. Financer 40 % du projet de tunnel entre Québec et Lévis.
Increase of Health transfer, more control over immigration, Law 101 applied to companies having a federal chart, single tax form (no more 1 provincial and 1 federal), no intervention against Law on Secularity (Laïcité), and fork 40% of the tunnel project between Québec and Lévis.

Except the meh (health transfer, financing Québec tunnel - I am against in the current form), the remaining proposals are quite interesting for a Québec nationalist. As we know the devil is in the details, It will be interesting how he wants to implement that. Other topic that will influence my vote for Conservative: their plan against Climate change.

So, TL;DR: I may vote Conservative IF....