Canada Election 2021

[Jacob]

The CBC has the following probabilities right now, based on the polls.

28% - Probability of the Liberals winning a majority

53% -Probability of the Liberals winning the most seats but not a majority

18% - Probability of the Conservatives winning the most seats but not a majority

1% -Probability of the Conservatives winning a majority

https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/poll-tracker/canada/
I wonder what the triggers are for leadership challenges in the NDP, Liberals, and Conservatives respecively.

If the Conservatives win the plurality of seats will they feel entitled to try to govern as a minority? Is there any way they could actually succeed at that? Or will it be relatively non-controversial for the Lib-NDP gov't to continue governing (assuming they in fact do have enough seats in event of a Conservative seat plurality)?

[crazy canuck]

Trudeau may regret calling the election:

T

he poll, which surveyed 1,500 Canadians online last weekend, suggests 33 per cent of voters would vote for the Liberals if the election were held tomorrow — down three points from last week — while the Conservatives gained one point to earn 32 per cent of the vote.

The NDP also improved by one point and would earn 21 per cent of the vote, the poll suggests. The Greens and Bloc Quebecois remained unchanged at five and six per cent support, respectively, while a combined 22 per cent were either undecided, would vote for another party or would not vote at all.

[Jacob]

Yeah, if the current trends continue unabated things could go wrong for Trudeau. I haven't investigated the CBC's statistical model, but they say there's still quite a low chance for a Conservative majority (though that could change, of course).

I don't think there's much question what will happen if O'Toole gets a majority (though I wonder if Trudeau will face a leadership challenge or not). What I am curious about, however, is how things will play out if the Conservatives get a plurality of the seats.

I kind of assume that they won't be able to find anyone to support them, but maybe they can? Would the BQ play ball? I somehow don't see the Liberals or the NDP propping up O'Toole. On the other hand, if the Cons get the plurality, how controversial would it be for a Liberal minority government?

[Jacob]

I'm sure everybody here will be disappointed to learn that Bernier is not making it to the debates: https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/federal-election-2021/five-federal-party-leaders-invited-to-election-debates-bernier-out-1.5556178

Also, apparently, the PPC slogan is "the other options suck."

[crazy canuck]

Yeah, if the current trends continue unabated things could go wrong for Trudeau. I haven't investigated the CBC's statistical model, but they say there's still quite a low chance for a Conservative majority (though that could change, of course).

I don't think there's much question what will happen if O'Toole gets a majority (though I wonder if Trudeau will face a leadership challenge or not). What I am curious about, however, is how things will play out if the Conservatives get a plurality of the seats.

I kind of assume that they won't be able to find anyone to support them, but maybe they can? Would the BQ play ball? I somehow don't see the Liberals or the NDP propping up O'Toole. On the other hand, if the Cons get the plurality, how controversial would it be for a Liberal minority government?

If the Conservatives win the most seats, but not a majority, they will be asked by the GG to form government.  It will then be up to the NDP and Liberals to decide if they want to trigger another election through a non confidence vote.  The NDP will likely not want to do so.  Politically it is better for them to have a minority government they can try influence.  Same with the Bloc.  The Liberals might be itching to get back to election mode but I think it more likely Trudeau will step down and they will start selecting their new leader.  Enter Mark Carney.  And the Liberals become credible again.

[Jacob]

If the Conservatives win the most seats, but not a majority, they will be asked by the GG to form government.  It will then be up to the NDP and Liberals to decide if they want to trigger another election through a non confidence vote.  The NDP will likely not want to do so.  Politically it is better for them to have a minority government they can try influence.  Same with the Bloc.  The Liberals might be itching to get back to election mode but I think it more likely Trudeau will step down and they will start selecting their new leader.  Enter Mark Carney.  And the Liberals become credible again.

So only the party that gains the most seats can form a government?

... I still can't wrap my head around that, after however many years.

[crazy canuck]

If the Conservatives win the most seats, but not a majority, they will be asked by the GG to form government.  It will then be up to the NDP and Liberals to decide if they want to trigger another election through a non confidence vote.  The NDP will likely not want to do so.  Politically it is better for them to have a minority government they can try influence.  Same with the Bloc.  The Liberals might be itching to get back to election mode but I think it more likely Trudeau will step down and they will start selecting their new leader.  Enter Mark Carney.  And the Liberals become credible again.

So only the party that gains the most seats can form a government?

... I still can't wrap my head around that, after however many years.

The GG has some discretion if it is clear that they cannot form government - ie they will certainly lose the first confidence vote.  That is what happened in BC - the Liberals won the most seats (by 1) but the Greens entered into a confidence and supply agreement with the NDP which assured the Liberal defeat in the Legislature.  I don't see something like that happening in the Federal context.

[viper37]

I wonder what the triggers are for leadership challenges in the NDP, Liberals, and Conservatives respecively.

NDP: no real trigger, unless the score is abysmal, like below 10%.
For the Liberals: having a Conservative majority.  Back to square one, they'll let it pass.  Majority, now way Trudeau stays on.
Same for the Conservatives: Minority LPC govt, no change.  Majority LPC, O'Toole is most likely out.  If it's a very narrow majority, he might stay.

If the Conservatives win the plurality of seats will they feel entitled to try to govern as a minority? Is there any way they could actually succeed at that? Or will it be relatively non-controversial for the Lib-NDP gov't to continue governing (assuming they in fact do have enough seats in event of a Conservative seat plurality)?

Non controversial, I don't think so.  Legal, sure.  Controversial, it will be, because by tradition the govt goes to the party with the plurality of seats, unless there would be some kind of formal deal between the Libs and NDP to immediatly defeat the Cons.

[viper37]

I'm sure everybody here will be disappointed to learn that Bernier is not making it to the debates: https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/federal-election-2021/five-federal-party-leaders-invited-to-election-debates-bernier-out-1.5556178

Also, apparently, the PPC slogan is "the other options suck."

Yeah, last time, he sneaked in by providing a fake poll.  So sad to see such a great leader fade to obscurity...

[Barrister]

If the Conservatives win the most seats, but not a majority, they will be asked by the GG to form government.  It will then be up to the NDP and Liberals to decide if they want to trigger another election through a non confidence vote.  The NDP will likely not want to do so.  Politically it is better for them to have a minority government they can try influence.  Same with the Bloc.  The Liberals might be itching to get back to election mode but I think it more likely Trudeau will step down and they will start selecting their new leader.  Enter Mark Carney.  And the Liberals become credible again.

So only the party that gains the most seats can form a government?

... I still can't wrap my head around that, after however many years.

My understanding is that the Liberals, as the existing government, do have the first shot at trying to form a government. If it's clear they won't be able to have the confidence of the House they will forego that chance however (much like in 2006 when Martin lost to a minority Conservative government).  The BC example cited by CC was different because the BC Liberals were the incumbe t government there.

It's kind of pointless to speculate at this point because it will depend on the final numbers for all parties.  If Liberals + NDP is enough for a majority there may well be some impulse to form government even with a Conservative plurality.  But once you add the BQ into the mix things get dicier - that's what blew up Dion's attempt to form a government in 2008.

[viper37]

So only the party that gains the most seats can form a government?

Theoritically, I suppose even the Bloc Québécois or the Popular Party of Canada (if one MP is elected) could form the government, if they were part of a coallition or formal alliance and they convinced the other major parties to let them rule and be the main participant in government.  Obviously, in practice, the party with the second plurality of elected MPs would not let a 3rd party govern.
Basically, when you meet the GG, as a party leader, you must assure him/her that you have the chamber's confidence.  If the NDP and the Bloc and the Cons all say they will vote against any throne speech by the Libs, then the GG will turn to the next party.

[Jacob]

My understanding is that the Liberals, as the existing government, do have the first shot at trying to form a government. If it's clear they won't be able to have the confidence of the House they will forego that chance however (much like in 2006 when Martin lost to a minority Conservative government).  The BC example cited by CC was different because the BC Liberals were the incumbe t government there.

It's kind of pointless to speculate at this point because it will depend on the final numbers for all parties.  If Liberals + NDP is enough for a majority there may well be some impulse to form government even with a Conservative plurality.  But once you add the BQ into the mix things get dicier - that's what blew up Dion's attempt to form a government in 2008.

That makes sense, thanks.

I'm just trying to calibrate my expectations for each of the different potential outcomes.

[Zoupa]

FPTP is a joke. Didn't Trudeau promise electoral reforms last time?

The options are depressing.

Look at my federal riding for the last 2 elections:

[Zoupa]

Liberal+NDP+Green beats the Conservatives each time, even in Alberta-lite where I now live.

Gives us proportional, ranked voting or 2 rounds of voting, something. This is dumb.

[Barrister]

Liberal+NDP+Green beats the Conservatives each time, even in Alberta-lite where I now live.

Gives us proportional, ranked voting or 2 rounds of voting, something. This is dumb.

Dude, the Conservative candidate in your riding won with 48% of the vote last time around.

You can not assume that Liberal+NDP+Green will always go together.  Back from my Reform Party days I remember the number of Reform/NDP voters was shockingly huge.  My own brother is a former Green voter now back to the Conservatives.  Voters are not nearly as ideological as you might think.

The one time I was a campaign manager in a federal election was in 1997 (I still keep in touch with my candidate over Facebook).  The Liberal Lloyd Axworthy won over 50% of the vote, destroying the NDP, PCs and us.  We knew that was what was likely going in.  But those kinds of margins are highly unusual.