Has Biden Made the Right Choice in Afghanistan?

[jimmy olsen]

I increasingly suspect this seems smart politics from Biden.
"Yeah we fucked Afghanistan but American lives are more important" pisses off a lot of people...And of course there's the actual fucking over of Afghanistan to think about....
But are the Republicans really going to be able to take the opposite POV there? He's ate their lunch.

https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/september-national-poll-americans-say-us-lost-war-in-afghanistan-blame-bush

While he was eating their lunch, Emerson ran a Trump vs. Biden presidential poll and Trump ended up one point. His net approval rating entered into negative territory.

Spencer Kimball, Director of Emerson College Polling, said "Historically, this data reminds me of 1912 when Teddy Roosevelt failed to win the Republican nomination from then President Taft and created a third party dooming the Republican chances against Woodrow Wilson. This data suggests that Republicans want either Trump or a Trumpian candidate to be their nominee, or half of them may split from the party."

Regarding the upcoming 2022 midterm elections, it appears neither party has an enthusiasm advantage at this point, with 71% of Democrats and 69% of Republicans saying they are very likely to vote in the midterms.

[jimmy olsen]

I think a Ted Cruz or Josh Hawley candidacy in 2024 will face much stronger headwinds against a generic Democrat because those candidates don't inspire anyone particularly like Trump does, and put the GOP more at risk of suffering from its poor demographic positioning--one of the worst aspects of Trump's coalition shifting is he drove educated white people out of the party. These are the nerd voters who are always properly registered, always going to get their ballot in no matter what the rules are, they're going to vote for every school board, county commissioner, off year Congressional etc race. He traded them in for a bunch of ignorant rednecks that may come out again if he runs but will tune out a ton of politics otherwise.

Isn't Biden the epitome of generic democrat though? Dosen't that undermine the idea that he needs to run against Trump to win?

[jimmy olsen]

I've said it elsewhere but I really hope every single person who knows him is strongly urging Breyer to step down now so Biden can appoint his replacement with a Democratic Senate, because, in the nicest way possible he's 83. I'm sure the world would be thrilled to read his memoir anyway.

His book on how the court shouldn't be political literally just came out this week! Not exactly timed well given current events.

[viper37]

Will Biden even run for reelection?
I thought it was pretty understood he planned to be a one term president.

He said he wanted to run again.  But It's still 3 years away, a lot could happen.

[OttoVonBismarck]

I think a Ted Cruz or Josh Hawley candidacy in 2024 will face much stronger headwinds against a generic Democrat because those candidates don't inspire anyone particularly like Trump does, and put the GOP more at risk of suffering from its poor demographic positioning--one of the worst aspects of Trump's coalition shifting is he drove educated white people out of the party. These are the nerd voters who are always properly registered, always going to get their ballot in no matter what the rules are, they're going to vote for every school board, county commissioner, off year Congressional etc race. He traded them in for a bunch of ignorant rednecks that may come out again if he runs but will tune out a ton of politics otherwise.

Isn't Biden the epitome of generic democrat though? Dosen't that undermine the idea that he needs to run against Trump to win?

Ehh, I don't think Biden can't win against a non-Trump Republican, I just think Trump is actually his best chance. Biden may be a generic Dem in some ways but he has some significant political liabilities:

-Extreme old age
-Poor public speaker
-A long history of not doing great with running lots of his previous campaigns (his 2020 campaign was ran basically perfectly though)
-Little motivation for lots of the lefty Dems who sometimes stay home, your Bernie or Busters--they likely voted for him in 2020 due to fear of another Trump, I'm not sure fear of a guy like Marco Rubio works the same way

If Trump runs again 2024 will be an election about whether America stands for Western values or autocracy, and I actually think it will be ran as such. I think Biden has a much better chance in that election than in what I'd term a "normal" election, akin to say, the 2012 or 2008 elections.

[Sheilbh]

For all the talk of leftie Democrats staying home - they are the ones who seem most pleasantly surprised by Biden (even if he's not Bernie) because, unlike Obama, he has actually delivered on getting out of Afghanistan and domestically he's pushing a more left-wing agenda than they anticipated. It's more the sort of Leon Panetta, Robert Rubin establishment-y figures who seem most frustrated. From what I can see the left were really underwhelmed with Obama but aren't yet with Biden.

Incidentally saw someone mentione it and I don't know how open the Soviet archives still are and research in Afghanistan is going to be really difficult but I feel like there's a very interesting book in the Soviet invasion from the USSR, Afghan and American perspective.

[Maladict]

Looks like Massoud jr. inherited only half of his father's genes. 

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Looks like Massoud jr. inherited only half of his father's genes. 

that's how it's supposed to work...

[Maladict]

Looks like Massoud jr. inherited only half of his father's genes. 

that's how it's supposed to work...

I know. 

[The Minsky Moment]

Looks like Massoud jr. inherited only half of his father's genes. 

His situation is more difficult.  I don't think Sr. was ever completely surrounded and cut off in the valley. 

[Maladict]

Unconfirmed reports that the Taliban has destroyed Senior's tomb in the valley.
And they elected hardliners as their leaders. So much for the moderation.

[Duque de Bragança]

Unconfirmed reports that the Taliban has destroyed Senior's tomb in the valley.
And they elected hardliners as their leaders. So much for the moderation.

I am shocked, shocked to hear there are no women and almost no ethnic minorities in their government as well!

PS: 20 years ago to this day, Massoud was murdered by Molenbeek-Saint Jean/Sint Jans islamists.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Unconfirmed reports that the Taliban has destroyed Senior's tomb in the valley.
And they elected hardliners as their leaders. So much for the moderation.

I am shocked, shocked to hear there are no women and almost no ethnic minorities in their government as well!

PS: 20 years ago to this day, Massoud was murdered by Molenbeek-Saint Jean/Sint Jans islamists.

indeed. I can't blame the eastern european countries for not wanting endless boatloads of muslims in their countries. They've seen what happens if you do.

[Valmy]

Unconfirmed reports that the Taliban has destroyed Senior's tomb in the valley.
And they elected hardliners as their leaders. So much for the moderation.

I am shocked, shocked to hear there are no women and almost no ethnic minorities in their government as well!

PS: 20 years ago to this day, Massoud was murdered by Molenbeek-Saint Jean/Sint Jans islamists.

indeed. I can't blame the eastern european countries for not wanting endless boatloads of muslims in their countries. They've seen what happens if you do.

Well I would hope so given that boatloads of Muslims have been living in Eastern Europe for 500 years.

[Duque de Bragança]

Unconfirmed reports that the Taliban has destroyed Senior's tomb in the valley.
And they elected hardliners as their leaders. So much for the moderation.

I am shocked, shocked to hear there are no women and almost no ethnic minorities in their government as well!

PS: 20 years ago to this day, Massoud was murdered by Molenbeek-Saint Jean/Sint Jans islamists.

indeed. I can't blame the eastern european countries for not wanting endless boatloads of muslims in their countries. They've seen what happens if you do.

Well I would hope so given that boatloads of Muslims have been living in Eastern Europe for 500 years.

Boatloads of muslims in Baltic(stan I guess), Poland, Czechia, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania and the like?