Has Biden Made the Right Choice in Afghanistan?

[alfred russel]

I increasingly suspect this seems smart politics from Biden.
"Yeah we fucked Afghanistan but American lives are more important" pisses off a lot of people...And of course there's the actual fucking over of Afghanistan to think about....
But are the Republicans really going to be able to take the opposite POV there? He's ate their lunch.

https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/september-national-poll-americans-say-us-lost-war-in-afghanistan-blame-bush

While he was eating their lunch, Emerson ran a Trump vs. Biden presidential poll and Trump ended up one point. His net approval rating entered into negative territory.

[Eddie Teach]

Election is in 2024, not now. People will be glad we got out, if they think about it at all.

[alfred russel]

Election is in 2024, not now. People will be glad we got out, if they think about it at all.

Hopefully 2024 features neither Trump nor Biden.

[Josquius]

As I've said before it seems a huge error to read too much into favourability ratings for a centrist when up against an extemist.
Those who have turned against Biden in recent polls are likely to come from the left. Not turning out is the best that the Republicans can hope for there.

[Tonitrus]

Yep.  The extremism in Trump's base has a much better chance at being energized in '24, and really that kind of fervor will be at a low boil almost all of the time.  Biden, and the Dem's, greatest enemy is general voter apathy/lack of enthusiasm.

They had the Trump-hate factor going for them in '20.  I think it's going to hurt a lot for them in '22/'24, I fear.

[alfred russel]

As I've said before it seems a huge error to read too much into favourability ratings for a centrist when up against an extemist.
Those who have turned against Biden in recent polls are likely to come from the left. Not turning out is the best that the Republicans can hope for there.

This is simply wrong.

2020 was epic turnout compared to recent US elections, and Biden won the tipping point state by 0.6%. That means that even if turnout stays at the 2020 high water mark, Republicans only need to flip the vote by 0.6%, or 3 in 1000 voters. Republicans aren't in some deep hole that they need to dig out of and need to pin their hopes on democrats not turning out.

The Emerson poll indicates that, as of today, public opinion has shifted 6 points in republican favor since their last poll right before the election. It is just one data point and there is a margin of error in that, and elections are a long time off, but the past few weeks really have been bad for democrats in terms of public opinion.

[Josquius]

The last election was before Trumps attempted coup and other post election shenanigans. This crashed his popularity outside of the cult.
Apathy is the enemy. Tackle that and the republicans should be kept out of power as he's left with the tribalists only.

[OttoVonBismarck]

I actually think Trump v Biden rematch is Biden's best chance of reelection. I think Trump actually has a fairly unique voter he appeals to that simply won't come out to vote for anyone else. This is somewhat shown by the many voters of his that didn't care to vote in 2018 or in various other interim elections where his name wasn't on the ballot. So that's a big positive for the GOP in running Trump again, but I also think Trump will bring just as many anti-Trump voters back to the polls in 2024, including many who are disillusioned with Biden. Like the whole premise of a Biden vote for many people (myself included) was to get Trump out of office, there was never an expectation, given Biden's history, that he was going to be a great President. I was hoping for "not a disaster" and even if he turns out a disaster he's still better than Trump, so I'd still vote for him over Trump. But there's a ton of Republicans I'd vote for over Biden, as long as they didn't adopt Trump's anti-democratic messaging.

As much as it is hard for some people to admit, Trump has a secret sauce that isn't easily replicated. It's not dissimilar from Obama, for what it's worth, the Dems never found a way to figure out how to get the "obama voters" back to the polls when Obama wasn't on the ballot, which is highly suggestive he had a unique appeal to people who otherwise were low propensity voters or less likely to vote Democrat.

I think a Ted Cruz or Josh Hawley candidacy in 2024 will face much stronger headwinds against a generic Democrat because those candidates don't inspire anyone particularly like Trump does, and put the GOP more at risk of suffering from its poor demographic positioning--one of the worst aspects of Trump's coalition shifting is he drove educated white people out of the party. These are the nerd voters who are always properly registered, always going to get their ballot in no matter what the rules are, they're going to vote for every school board, county commissioner, off year Congressional etc race. He traded them in for a bunch of ignorant rednecks that may come out again if he runs but will tune out a ton of politics otherwise.

[Josquius]

Will Biden even run for reelection?
I thought it was pretty understood he planned to be a one term president.

[Sheilbh]

I don't know that anyone around Biden or his campaign has ever really said that though. I think it's a widespread assumption - but given that the Democrats are the party of RBG, Feinstein, Pelosi and Breyer etc. So we know there will be zero pressure on anyone to retire and make rule for the next generaton of leaders ever.

I'm not sure Harris has so far worked out as hoped and I'm not sure there's any other obvious alternative for 2024 if he does decide not to run again.

[Tonitrus]

Will Biden even run for reelection?
I thought it was pretty understood he planned to be a one term president.

He's left the option open when asked...which simply makes good political sense even if your understanding is true.

I don't think it is a good idea for him to run again...but that always makes for a dangerous situation as a one-term Pres, in terms of the rest of his term flows, how a successor candidate works becomes pretty delicate, etc.

[alfred russel]

I don't know that anyone around Biden or his campaign has ever really said that though. I think it's a widespread assumption - but given that the Democrats are the party of RBG, Feinstein, Pelosi and Breyer etc. So we know there will be zero pressure on anyone to retire and make rule for the next generaton of leaders ever.

I'm not sure Harris has so far worked out as hoped and I'm not sure there's any other obvious alternative for 2024 if he does decide not to run again.

Biden is a politician and how many politicians step aside for altruistic reasons? He started out in the Senate when legit almost 20% of the body was born in the 19th century and his mentor was none other than Bob Byrd, who soiled himself so much they are still trying to get the smell of pee and poo out of the chamber.

I certainly don't count on him stepping aside though I certainly hope he does.

[Sheilbh]

I don't think it's necessarily altruism - I think young Democrats are badat harassing and forcing out their elder to make space for them. There's an unhealthy amount of deference and respect and wait your turn. The US is unusual in the democratic world in how gerontocratic it is, I don't think politicians in other countries are more altruistic, I think they might be more impatient/there's less of a structural emphasis on seniority and waiting your turn (I also wonder if part of it is that in the UK, at least, the best money-making opportunities are after you've left parliament - so you need to get out while you're still young enough to do that).

I've said it elsewhere but I really hope every single person who knows him is strongly urging Breyer to step down now so Biden can appoint his replacement with a Democratic Senate, because, in the nicest way possible he's 83. I'm sure the world would be thrilled to read his memoir anyway.

[alfred russel]

Sheilbh, but we are really dependent on altruism for Biden stepping aside. An independently elected US president just has enormous patronage and institutional power that will make it impossible to beat in a primary without the primary becoming destructive to the party's general election chances.

It would be far easier for democrats to push out schumer or pelosi.

[Sheilbh]

I totally agree - it's why I don't really know that he will. And don't really get why everyone is saying he's so likely to be a one term president.

Given the record of the Democrats with their elderly (RBG, Pelosi, Breyer, Feinstein etc) I'm not even sure people would be willing to informally tell him to think about stepping aside. They'd want to respect him and respect the office - which is bullshit, they should want to win.