Has Biden Made the Right Choice in Afghanistan?

[jimmy olsen]

The logistics guys are really the stars of the show in this.  Very impressive.

I disagree. 70k in 10 or so days is not a great accomplishment, especially when you cram 600 people on a single plane.

When the media is loudly declaring your plan to evacuate 50k people impossible and you then evacuate 70k people, you look good to the public.

[11B4V]

The logistics guys are really the stars of the show in this.  Very impressive.

I disagree. 70k in 10 or so days is not a great accomplishment, especially when you cram 600 people on a single plane.

When the media is loudly declaring your plan to evacuate 50k people impossible and you then evacuate 70k people, you look good to the public.

Yup

[The Larch]

Spain has announced that they expect to finish evacuation flights by Friday, as apparently the US wants to reserve full use of the airport since Saturday to be able to evacuate all their remaining people. Other countries that have already finished their own evacuations are Denmark, Poland, Hungary, Netherlands and Belgium, while France expects to finish by Friday as well. So far we've evacuated 1242 people, some of which are to be settled in different EU countries (Denmark, Germany, Poland and Lithuania, apparently). There are still 600 Afghan former employees of the Spanish forces to be evacuated from the country, but it seems that many of them have loads of trouble to get to Kabul, as Spain was deployed in a province 800 Km. away from it, and once in Kabul getting into the airport itself.

Spain seems to have run a quite efficient evacuation program these days according to what I'm reading, with a relatively meagre presence in the ground (only around 100 people, between military personnel, policemen that formerly protected the embassy and diplomatic personnel, including the ambassador, who is still in the country). A group of 60 spec ops soldiers are the only ones that are able to leave the airport in order to escort people into it, so I can only imagine how terrible the situation must be there.

Spain is also going to act as a hub for receiving Afghans that worked with different EU countries and institutions, hosting them temporarily before they're settled in their final destinations, as well as being part of the network of US military bases in Europe (Spain, Germany, Italy and Kosovo) where the US is going to temporarily host around 25.000 Afghans (4.000 of them will stay in Spanish bases).

[Sheilbh]

I don't think Biden had any doubts about the worthlessness of the Afghan Army, just based on things he was reported to have been saying in meetings w/senior defense and intelligence officers back in the 2010s under Obama. I do think he genuinely thought they would hold out no less than three months and possibly more than a year, everything we've seen to hit press has suggested that was the range of estimates coming in from official intelligence, defense and State sources. FWIW there was a dissent cable sent in from something like 25 State officials saying they believed Afghanistan would collapse rapidly, however even their estimate wasn't as grim as the 11 or so days it actually took. And being a dissent cable means it was not a majority opinion, and we aren't sure Biden saw it--we do know that SecState Blinken did, though.

There's different degrees of worthlessness.

Like believing an Army is deeply corrupt and likely to slowly lose guys to desertion and steadily lose ground in bitter fighting is a lot different from believing literally 150,000+ guys were going to surrender all the major cities of the country, including the capital, with almost no shots being fired and with high level agreements between provincial level commanders and political leaders to accept money in exchange for said surrenders.

I think that's right.

And I'd add I think even more importantly the state evaporated. In the space of two weeks every single provincial governor had handed over power to the Taliban and the President had fled. I think there is a bit of chicken and egg here because I don't know how much the army didn't fight because the thing they were meant to defend and whose orders they were meant to follow disappeared, and how much the provincial governors just decided to get out because the army wasn't fighting. I think it is really tough though to know what the ANA is meant to do when the Afghan state just disappears - arguably the army could effectively become the state and step in but I think that takes a very strong level of coherence and sort of identity within the army that didn't exist.

In a way I think the failure of the Afghan state is the even bigger failure here - it's not just the US or coalition allies, that was a project of the UN, of Western NGOs etc and it failed utterly - plus everyone ran away.

US allies are always unhappy and bitching about "being treated shabbily," starting with France and the Netherlands in the American Revolution.  But that's fair, because the US is always unhappy and bitching about "being treated shabbily" by those same allies, starting with France and the Netherlands in the American Revolution.

Fair - I have seen a date on the moan now - that as late as 12 August the US was telling allies that they intended to keep their embassy in Kabul and would make sure the airport was running.

Separately the UK and US are now warning their citizens not to wait at the gates of the airport because there's security risks - I think of terrorist attacks in the crowd which would be awful given the level of crowding

[alfred russel]

Terrorism is generally a tactic of insurgents. Groups in charge generally don't launch terrorist attacks on the people they govern in areas they control.

[viper37]

Terrorism is generally a tactic of insurgents. Groups in charge generally don't launch terrorist attacks on the people they govern in areas they control.

They have forbidden Afghans from leaving the country.  they may attack to make their point: stay or die trying to leave.

[Sheilbh]

Explosion outside Kabul airport

Edit: No reports on casualties but apparently a suicide bomber at a choke point and someone else with a gun.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Terrorism is generally a tactic of insurgents. Groups in charge generally don't launch terrorist attacks on the people they govern in areas they control.

The specific security warnings that have been released suggested ISIS in Afghanistan could be looking to do a terrorist attack on civilians. Afghanistan has lots of bad people and groups in it, not just the Taliban. The foreign terror group presence is very low right now, but they do have an active presence.

[Josquius]

Explosion outside Kabul airport

Edit: No reports on casualties but apparently a suicide bomber at a choke point and someone else with a gun.

Really mystified at the reasons behind this.
Of course if you're going to be a suicide bomber you've already got a few screws lost and have been brainwashed into alien thinking.
But under the circumstances its just weird.

[The Minsky Moment]

Afghanistan has lots of bad people and groups in it, not just the Taliban. The foreign terror group presence is very low right now

Anyone care to hazard a guess on the likely future direction of those numbers?

[OttoVonBismarck]

I mean it will certainly go up. That isn't justification for a permanent presence in the country.

[viper37]

And as expected, a terrorist attack left 5 dead near the Kabul airport.

[Sheilbh]

The specific security warnings that have been released suggested ISIS in Afghanistan could be looking to do a terrorist attack on civilians. Afghanistan has lots of bad people and groups in it, not just the Taliban. The foreign terror group presence is very low right now, but they do have an active presence.

Yeah - and ISIS have condemned the Taliban who they don't consider real jihadists but who have instead won this victory through negotiation and compromise. So it wouldn't be a massive surprise if they started more regular attacks except instead of dealing with the Afghan army and state (backed by the US) they will be facing against the Taliban (backed by Pakistan). I wouldn't be surprised if there's an up-tick in ISIS attacks.

Worth noting that ISIS generally don't like the Taliban - they consider them apostates who are basically Islamo-nationalists who govern through tribal law and customs and only concern themselves with Afghanistan rather than the world and ISIS's take on a pure Islamic state/law. They also think that the Taliban are far too close to Pakistan and particularly are not anywhere near strong enough on Shi'ite Muslims.

[The Minsky Moment]

I mean it will certainly go up. That isn't justification for a permanent presence in the country.

Of course it's a justification, the real question is whatever it is a sufficient justification in terms of cost vs benefit.

[Razgovory]

Got a feeling there may be  airstrikes soon.