Has Biden Made the Right Choice in Afghanistan?

[The Brain]

Afghanistan or not, I wonder how many people would opt to make a desperate last stand where they're expected to last for a couple of months before their enemy achieves total victory?

Biden should have made them Field Marshals. Problem solved.

[DGuller]

Afghanistan or not, I wonder how many people would opt to make a desperate last stand where they're expected to last for a couple of months before their enemy achieves total victory?

Biden should have made them Field Marshals. Problem solved.

This very thing has actually been tried in Stalingrad by Hitler.  It didn't work.

[Josquius]

I wonder if Biden will get the blame for this?
Lest we forget its Trump's policy. Biden potentially deserves criticism for sticking to it. But it didn't originate with him.

[The Brain]

Afghanistan or not, I wonder how many people would opt to make a desperate last stand where they're expected to last for a couple of months before their enemy achieves total victory?

Biden should have made them Field Marshals. Problem solved.

This very thing has actually been tried in Stalingrad by Hitler.  It didn't work.

[OttoVonBismarck]

I wonder if Biden will get the blame for this?
Lest we forget its Trump's policy. Biden potentially deserves criticism for sticking to it. But it didn't originate with him.

Yes, he will. You can correctly say that Trump set the stage, as did the Presidents before him, but Trump specifically with his Doha agreement. However Biden is President now, and blame will accrue to him. You could always argue that if Trump saw things getting this bad, he'd have sent more troops in to stabilize it and not withdrawn. Is that what he would have done? Considering how he abandoned the Kurds in Syria, I doubt it. But it is what it is.

I think Biden (correctly) has gambled there is no real political hit related to Afghanistan. It's a talking point for Republicans who need talking points to fill air time and cry about things, but I don't think it's going to change D votes to R votes.

[Tamas]

Plus I don't think he is planning to run for a second term.

[Tamas]

[Eddie Teach]

I wonder if Biden will get the blame for this?
Lest we forget its Trump's policy. Biden potentially deserves criticism for sticking to it. But it didn't originate with him.

As easy as it is to blame Trump for everything, Bush and Obama are just as culpable.

[Malthus]

I get the impression the US public by and large does not care about Afghanistan (other than briefly, because of the Bin Laden thing) and so abandoning the place to its fate has little political cost.

This isn't at all like Vietnam, which was hugely divisive.

The question is whether this will change, if the Taliban were dumb enough to get involved in supporting terror attacks against the US. Presumably, they know better than to push that.

Where this is really damaging, is to perception of the US willingness to support allies. The Trump administration abandoned the Kurds without a qualm, and the abandonment of Afghanistan proves this isn't just a Trump thing - the lesson is that you can't depend on the US alone for your security, you had better have alternative allies lined up, presumably in your region (and so who care whether you fall or not). Otherwise, your existence depends on the whims of US politics.

I would expect to see a lot more regional deal-making, along the lines of the David Accords.

[The Minsky Moment]

"One more year, or five more years, of U.S. military presence would not have made a difference if the Afghan military cannot or will not hold its own country," Biden said. "And an endless American presence in the middle of another country's civil conflict was not acceptable to me."

I honestly can't say he is wrong on this.

Seems pretty clear that the first sentence was catastrophically wrong.  A small contingent of US combat troops plus support personnel was sufficient to bolster the Afghan forces and keep the Taliban at bay for years, so the US military presence made an enormous difference.  As to the second sentence, it is undisputable that was Biden's opinion.  But there are real life consequences to acting on that opinion.

[The Minsky Moment]

Where this is really damaging, is to perception of the US willingness to support allies.

That would be true if the US had any such credibility at the moment.  Credibility has a zero lower bound.

[OttoVonBismarck]

If you choose to interpret it that way, what I believe was being suggested by "difference" was "making a difference in the domestic situation in Afghanistan." If the only thing keeping troops from selling their positions to the Taliban for money was a few thousand U.S. troops then there wasn't much being achieved by us remaining there.

[The Minsky Moment]

If you choose to interpret it that way, what I believe was being suggested by "difference" was "making a difference in the domestic situation in Afghanistan." If the only thing keeping troops from selling their positions to the Taliban for money was a few thousand U.S. troops then there wasn't much being achieved by us remaining there.

I accept the premise, and draw exactly the opposite conclusion.
It seems to me if the second statement is true, then by definition quite a lot was being achieved by the US presence.

[Valmy]

I am very sorry for this woman just as I am for all those women who were crushed by the Islamic revolution in Iran.

But polling data is clear that the overwhelming majority of women in Afghanistan are more aligned with the Taliban than her. That is a fact no American occupation can change. Afghanistan can only be changed by the people of Afghanistan. If she wants to leave the country I hope somebody will help her. If she stays I wish her all the best.

How reliable is polling data from women in Afghanistan?

I hope it is incredibly unreliable.

[Legbiter]

I get the impression the US public by and large does not care about Afghanistan (other than briefly, because of the Bin Laden thing) and so abandoning the place to its fate has little political cost.

This isn't at all like Vietnam, which was hugely divisive.

The question is whether this will change, if the Taliban were dumb enough to get involved in supporting terror attacks against the US. Presumably, they know better than to push that.

Where this is really damaging, is to perception of the US willingness to support allies. The Trump administration abandoned the Kurds without a qualm, and the abandonment of Afghanistan proves this isn't just a Trump thing - the lesson is that you can't depend on the US alone for your security, you had better have alternative allies lined up, presumably in your region (and so who care whether you fall or not). Otherwise, your existence depends on the whims of US politics.

I would expect to see a lot more regional deal-making, along the lines of the David Accords.

It's amazing that the Americans lasted as long as they did, 20 years and mountains of cash later they found themselves with an Afghan army that won't fight even a day. I mean it was obviously an enormously profitable scam for suppliers and contractors, courtesy of the taxpayer but for everyone else it was a colossal failure. Ending this doomed venture incompetently was maybe to be expected given the last 2 decades.